Deep South Weather: Last Four Severe Weather Events Forecast Validation (12, 18, 21-22, & 24-25 January 2023)

January 29, 2023

I was in the habit of including the forecast validation for the previous severe weather event each time I sent an update on the forecast for the latest system. That is until recently so this post serves to catch me back up for the last four events on January 12th, 18th, 21-22nd, and 24-25th. The 21-22nd event I didn't write an update for because the probability of severe weather was low and I try not to make more posts than needed less what I send out starts to get relegated to spam like so much other noise we receive daily. Interestingly there were impacts from severe weather both days including damage from a tornado along the beach not too far from where I live. It is for this reason that I will be sending out an update for today's forecast (also "only" a marginal risk) as soon as I'm done with this.

For the event on the 12th the Day 2 Outlook that I posted on the 11th was forecasting a slight level risk. By the morning of things had changed such that an enhanced risk forecast was warranted and as you can see below there was a fairly widespread outbreak of severe weather that day that unfortunately resulted in several fatalities.

The event on the 18th was forecast to have more of an impact to our west with a marginal risk area covering part of the state of Alabama. I would say that this forecast busted a little with most of the reports limited to a small area in the slight risk area and only 1 in the marginal risk area. Forecasting severe weather is difficult and the success or failure (bad word choices for both) often depends on subtleties in the atmosphere that are impossible to predict for certain. The folks at the SPC do a great job keeping us safe.

The event on the 21st and 22nd was the one that I didn't make a post about because I didn't think the risk was high enough to warrant it as mentioned above. Although there wasn't a widespread outbreak there were enough reports on both days (with the one tornado not far from where I live on the 21st counting as "enough" in my book) that looking back I should have wrote about it. Anyhow, verification maps for both days are below.

The event on the 24th and 25th didn't quite meet the expectations of the forecast especially for the region between New Orleans and Destin. Although the forecast hinged on whether or not sufficient instability for tornadoes would be present the expectation that there would be several bad (i.e. tornadic) storms in the Mobile-Pensacola region didn't materialize. At that point I thought the rest of the forecast for locations farther east would be a bust so it was interesting to see tornadoes impact eastern Walton County and the Panama City area early on the 25th. Uncertainty was high for this event and stated clearly in the forecast. Had more instability been present this would have been much more impactful.