January 24, 2023
There have been a couple of changes to the forecast for tonight and tomorrow that I want you to know about. For tonight into early tomorrow the enhanced risk area has expanded to the east and now includes most of Walton County. The entire enhanced risk area includes a 10% chance of tornadoes with the black hatching indicating significant severe weather possible which is EF2 tornadoes or stronger. The enhanced area also includes a 30% chance of damaging winds and a 5% chance of hail. To the east and north the slight risk area includes a 5% chance of a tornado and 15% chance of damaging winds. Another change (or I just missed it yesterday, I'm not sure which) is that the timing looks a bit later than I was thinking. It looks like severe weather will not start to impact the western most counties in the Panhandle until around midnight spreading into Walton and Bay counties between 3-6 a.m. Reading the forecast discussions it remains to be seen how widespread the severe weather will be tonight. The cool air in place from the last cold front has the potential to keep the lid on things so to speak which would minimize the tornado threat (but not eliminate it) and make this more of a damaging wind event. However, if enough warm and moist Gulf air can be pulled north ahead of the storms we could see a fairly significant outbreak of severe weather with tornadoes being the greater threat. Which of these scenarios will happen will probably not be known until shortly before the weather moves through.
The last change to mention is that the severe weather risk has been increased to slight for Wednesday morning and afternoon as this storm system continues east across the Panhandle and the rest of the Southeast.
Day 1 Outlook (7 a.m. today through 7 a.m. Wednesday)
Day 2 Outlook ( 7 a.m. Wednesday through 7 a.m. Thursday)
Mobile-Pensacola Area (graphic a bit outdated)
Destin-Panama City
There will be time later today for an update if something in the forecast changes enough for me to think you need to know about it. Otherwise pay attention to local media outlets and the NWS for updates.
Stay safe.
Chris
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