Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow, Mostly Along the Near Coastal Areas

March 16, 2023

The Storm Prediction Center is again predicting severe weather tomorrow for the southeast. A slight (yellow) risk area is located over the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and extends inland to just south of Montgomery. A marginal (dark green) risk area extends a bit farther north to just south of Birmingham. Damaging winds is the main threat with a low (2%) tornado risk also indicated along the coast. Timing will be Friday morning through evening with the chance of a tornado along the coast being the greatest later in the period. NWS Tallahassee hasn't put a timing graphic out yet but you can extrapolate from the Mobile graphic that storm timing will start and end a few hours later for the Destin-Panama City area. I expect the weather to clear the Panama City area around midnight.

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Friday - 7 a.m. Saturday)

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Montgomery Area

Expect cooler temps to hang around through about the end of the week. The next shot at rain (maybe) looks to be along the coast Tuesday into Wednesday followed by another front sweeping through the whole region around next weekend.

Below is the verification map for the event last weekend (March 12). The Day 2 Outlook issued on Saturday for Sunday's weather was pretty bullish on the hail forecast especially for the Mobile-Pensacola area, including a forecast for large (>2") hail. The SPC backed off on this a bit Sunday morning but they were still showing a 15% chance across the slight risk area. The forecast wasn't too far off but I think there should have been more hail reports and 1-3 more tornado reports (forecast was 5% in the slight risk area) for this to verify. The forecast put out by NWS Birmingham expecting severe storms late Saturday into early Sunday didn't materialize either.

That's it for today. I don't expect the weather to be too bad tomorrow but be aware a few storms could be severe when making your plans for the day. The weekend should be cool but nice. Enjoy it, warm weather is right around the corner!

Chris