Update on Saturday Severe Weather

January 26, 2024

We have some more details for the severe weather threat tomorrow but not too much has changed from a few days ago. You can see that the core of the risk area has expanded southwest towards the coast but thankfully the risk is relatively low. There is a Slight risk area running from Mobile to Destin west to east and then north up through the middle of Alabama just about to Huntsville. Within the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado and a 15% chance of damaging winds for the southern portion of the risk area, 5% elsewhere. A Marginal risk area extends all around the Slight risk area covering most of the state of AL, the rest of the western Florida Panhandle, and the southern portion of central and eastern Tennessee. There is an area in central and northern AL that has a low (5%) hail risk but otherwise the main threat in the Marginal risk area is damaging winds (5%) and an isolated tornado threat (2%). Timing is a little complicated. The main line of storms will come through from mid morning through the afternoon. Storms will arrive first in the Huntsville and Birmingham areas in the morning. The squall line will trail off to the southwest and will impact the Montgomery and Mobile areas later in the morning and then into the afternoon for places farther east (1-4 p.m. for Destin to Panama City). It should be noted that there may be a second severe threat later in the afternoon through the evening for central Alabama north into Tennessee with the same threats expected. The Tallahassee NWS office had not produced a graphic as of this writing but the Slight risk area extends only just a bit to the east of the Mobile-Pensacola graphic with timing being a bit later as I described it above.

Day 2 Outlook (6 a.m. Saturday - 6 a.m. Sunday)

Birmingham Area

Mobile-Pensacola Area

I'm not expecting significant impacts from this event but there could be isolated damage from strong winds or a few tornadoes. Any tornadoes aren't expected to be as strong as we saw a few weeks ago. All the same stay aware of changing weather and be alert for watches or warnings in your area. After the weather clears out Sunday and the week to come look pretty nice. Expect cooler (but not cold) temps and dryer weather maybe all the way into next weekend with the exception of TN and northern AL that might catch a stray shower around mid-week.

Have a good weekend!

Chris

Chance of Severe Weather Tomorrow and Saturday

January 24, 2024

I hope you all are starting to thaw after the cold weather we have had! There are some rumblings that the cold may return as we get into February but for right now temps should be mostly above average. Along with the warmer temps the chance for severe weather returns. For tomorrow the chance is low, with a Marginal chance of severe weather for the western FL Panhandle, most of AL, and a little sliver of TN. There's also a Marginal chance of severe weather for a small portion of western AL, but since it really only affects me I'm not discussing that. Damaging winds are the main risk tomorrow at 5%, but there is a chance of an isolated tornado as well. Timing of severe weather looks to be afternoon into the evening. It's still too early for details but the chance of severe weather returns on Saturday. Right now the risk area runs from southwest AL to the northeast part of the state, sort of bisecting the state from southwest to northeast, favoring the southern part of the state. A very small portion of the northwest FL Panhandle is in the risk area as well. As we get closer I expect to see a Slight or maybe Enhanced risk of severe weather in this area with maybe a Marginal risk area extending from it a bit, we'll see. Timing looks to be maybe mid-morning to afternoon on Saturday but more to come on that. I don't think Saturday will be a very significant event but we need to watch how the forecast evolves as there is relatively high confidence in severe weather occuring.

Day 2 (6 a.m. Thursday - 6 a.m. Friday)

Day 4 (6 a.m. Saturday - 6 a.m. Sunday

I don't expect much of an impact from the severe threat tomorrow but Saturday may be a little different story, more to come on that on Friday. Rainfall totals will approach 3-4" for many people through the weekend so be mindful of that also. I'm still working on a review of the bad storms we had a few weeks ago and I'll let you know when that is published.

Stay safe and enjoy the rest of the week.

Chris

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Severe Risk for Friday Now Lower for Some Areas, Higher for Others

January 11, 2024

I try not to send out too many emails but I wanted to let you all know that the severe risk for tomorrow has changed (mostly for the better) quite a bit. You can see below the Enhanced risk area has shifted position well to the west and the tornado and hail threat has decreased. Gone is the 10% EF2+ tornado threat and the 75 mph+ wind threat has been dropped as well. Timing details remain the same. People in northwest AL should note the increased risk (from Slight or Marginal to Enhanced or Slight) in their area and it should be noted also that the Slight risk area now covers all of northern AL and a good bit of TN.

Updated Day 2 Outlook (6 a.m. Friday - 6 am.m Saturday)

I don't remember seeing this kind of change before and I thought you'd like to know about it.

Chris

Update on the Friday Severe Weather Threat

January 11, 2024

There hasn't been much of a change regarding the severe weather forecast for tomorrow. The SPC is forecasting an Enhanced risk of severe weather for much of the central to southeastern portion of Alabama. A Slight risk area extends down through the coast and across much of Florida and also westward and northward across more of Alabama. A Marginal risk area covers the rest of the northern portion of Alabama and most of Tennessee. Within the Enhanced region there is a 10% chance of a tornado including the possibility of strong (EF2 or stronger) tornadoes. Also in the Enhanced region is a narrow corridor of 30% damaging wind probabilities with winds in excess of 75mph possible. For the rest of the Enhanced area and all of the Slight area there is a 15% chance of damaging winds. Also in the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado. A 15% hail risk area covers the Enhanced region and a large portion of the Slight risk area. In TN and northern AL the main threat will be damaging winds (5% chance).

Timing still looks about the same. Showers and storms will move in from the south and west in the morning spreading to the east and northeast throughout the day. Severe storms are possible from the morning through late afternoon or early evening, ending sooner for parts west.

Day 2 Outlook (6 a.m. Friday - 6 a.m. Saturday)

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

Mobile - Pensacola

Destin - Panama City

I don't think the weather will be quite as bad for folks along the coast as it was Tuesday morning. The more inland areas may experience some bad storms but it seems like there is some more uncertainty for this event on Friday, especially for areas on the western and southern periphery of the Enhanced risk area, than there was for Tuesday's event. For this event the greatest threat seems to be in Georgia through South Carolina. All the same don't let your guard down.

The Mobile and Tallahassee National Weather Service offices have released preliminary information from their damage surveys of Tuesday's storms. The Mobile office identified damage consistent with EF1 tornadoes in three different areas and damage from EF0 tornadoes in 3 areas and one area that likely experienced 100 mph wind gusts. The Tallahassee office has determined that the tornado that hit Panama City Beach was an EF3. This same storm spawned another EF2 tornado in the Lynn Haven and Deer Point area. Two other tornadoes, one an EF2 and the other an EF1 were also identified. There were numerous other reports of damage throughout the FL Panhandle and AL coastal areas.

I don't have any better information regarding the cold next week but I can tell you it's going to be cold! Local media outlets and official forecasts from the NWS will be the best resource for that but let me know if you have any questions.

Stay safe and have a good weekend.

Chris

More Severe Weather Possible on Friday - Main Threat is More Inland This Time

January 10, 2024

Unfortunately there ended up being significant damage from the severe storms on Monday and Tuesday. I know it is fatiguing, but we need to prepare for the possibility of more severe weather on Friday. This time the main focus looks to be inland a little bit which will give people on the coast somewhat of a break. Currently the SPC is indicating an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe weather for the eastern half of Alabama from about Birmingham south to the state line. Most of the Florida Panhandle and most of the rest of Alabama are in a Slight risk area (level 2 out of 5) with a Marginal risk area (level 1 out of 5) covering northern Alabama and Tennessee. We'll get better details on specific threats tomorrow but I expect damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes to be the main concerns. Severe storm timing looks to be from Friday morning through late Friday afternoon or early evening from west to east.

Day 3 Outlook (6 a.m. Friday - 6 a.m. Saturday)

Birmingham Area

Mobile - Pensacola

Destin - Panama City

I am hoping we don't have quite as impactful an event on Friday as we did yesterday but if you're in or near the Enhanced region please be prepared.

After this storm system on Friday passes through we will get another cold front around Monday or Tuesday. The good news is that I'm not seeing much in the way of a severe threat from this system. The bad news, unless you love the cold, is that this front is going to bring with it the coldest air of the season. I don't have solid details yet, but we may see lows in the 20s (maybe even colder?) for a night or two all the way down to the coast with lows in the teens to single digits up through AL and TN. Daytime highs will be cold as well. If you haven't done it yet, this weekend will be the time to prepare for a hard freeze.

6-10 Day Temp Outlook (15-19 January) - Probably of Temps Greater Than or Less Than Normal

That's it for today. I'll provide more details about Friday's severe weather risk tomorrow.

Chris

Update on Severe Weather Threat for Tomorrow Night and Tuesday Morning

January 7, 2024

Hi everyone, I hope you had a good weekend. We now have more details on the severe weather threat Monday night into Tuesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe weather for the Alabama and Florida Panhandles and adjacent inland areas with Slight and Marginal risk areas extending beyond these. For late Monday through daybreak Tuesday there is a 10% chance of a tornado, including EF2 or stronger tornadoes, a 30% chance of damaging winds, and a low hail chance in the Enhanced area with these probabilities decreasing for surrounding areas. Specific probabilities for areas that will be impacted after daybreak Tuesday have not been issued yet but I expect them to be similar. Two rounds of severe storms are possible. The first round may come from warm front storms streaming in off the Gulf late Monday and the second round will come later as a squall line moves through early Tuesday into Tuesday morning from west to east ahead of a cold front.

Day 2 Outlook (6 a.m. Monday - 6 a.m. Tuesday)

Day 3 Outlook (6 a.m. Tuesday - 6 a.m. Wednesday)

Mobile - Pensacola Area

Destin - Panama City Area

This could be a significant event for some areas near the coast. Since it will be an overnight or early morning event it is especially important to have a shelter plan in place ahead of time and multiple ways of receiving watches and warnings that will wake you up. In addition to the severe threat rainfall totals in the 2-3" range or greater are possible across the region so be aware of that as well.

I don't expect the threats or threat area to significantly change but if they do I'll let you know. Otherwise stay up to date with local media outlets for the latest information.

Stay safe.

Chris

Multiple Days of Severe Weather Near the Coast Starting Tonight

January 5, 2024

I hope you all had a great holiday season! The rain we had a few days ago kicked off an active period in our weather and was the first in a sequence of four (or more) systems that will move through the Southeast through the following weekend (and probably longer).

For the next two systems each one is going to be stronger than the last. First up is a system that will move through tonight into early Saturday and bring with it a Marginal (level 1 of 5) chance of severe weather including an isolated tornado or two (2% chance) and a 5% chance of damaging winds confined to the Alabama and Florida Panhandles. Timing graphics are shown below, but expect the possibility of severe storms to start in the late evening for the Mobile area with the risk moving into the overnight and morning hours for the Florida Panhandle.

Day 1 Outlook (through 7 a.m. tomorrow)

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Destin-Panama City

I don't expect any significant impacts from this first system but there could be some isolated areas that experience damaging winds and we may see a tornado or two across the region.

It's too early to talk specifics but the next system will come through on Monday and Tuesday with what may end up being a significant threat of severe weather again for the coastal areas and a little farther inland as well. The Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting this system as one to watch for several days now and that indicates relatively high confidence that significant impacts will be possible. We will have better information on Sunday and throughout the day Monday but for now it is good to start dusting off your severe weather plan. This will be an overnight event for some of us so make sure you have multiple ways of receiving watch and warning notifications. More to come on this.

Day 4 Outlook (7 a.m. Monday - 7 a.m. Tuesday)

Day 5 Outlook (7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

We have to go all the way back to the 9th and 10th of December for our last severe weather event. Storm reports for these days are below and I have to say this event was a little bit more active than I had expected.

December 9, 2023 Reports

December 10, 2023 Reports

On a personal note I want to let you all know that my family moved to the Mobile, AL area just a few days ago. Other than some additional content for the area near our new home expect no changes to the areas or types of weather events I have been covering.

That's it for today, you'll hear from me again on Sunday. Have a great weekend.

Chris