March 7, 2024
It has been almost a month since our last significant severe weather threat, you have to go all the way back to February 12th. Tomorrow and Saturday morning the chance for severe weather returns. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight (level 2 out of 5) risk of severe weather on Friday for most of the southern half of Alabama and four counties in the western portion of the Florida Panhandle. Extending from this is a Marginal risk area that covers most of the rest of the state of Alabama and a little bit more of Florida. The Slight risk area slides eastward on Saturday covering almost all of Northern Florida and southeast Alabama with a narrow Marginal region extending to the northwest. On Friday there is a 5% chance of a tornado and a 15% chance of damaging winds in the Slight risk area with a 2% chance of tornadoes and 5% chance of damaging winds in the Marginal risk area. I'm expecting the same probabilities for Saturday but we'll have to wait until tomorrow to confirm that.
Showers and storms will start moving off the Gulf Friday morning with stronger storms arriving in the west first Friday afternoon. Severe weather timing looks to start maybe as early as the afternoon for the Mobile area spreading to the northeast to about Birmingham and east to Pensacola throughout the evening and overnight and then into Saturday morning for the rest of the Emerald Coast. There aren't a lot of timing graphics out yet so my description will have to do for now. Follow your local NWS office on social media or local meteorologist for the latest information.
Day 2 (valid 6 a.m. Friday - 6 a.m. Saturday)
Day 3 (6 a.m. Saturday - 7 a.m. Sunday [off one hour due to time change)
After the rain moves out Saturday temps will dip until about midweek with mostly clear weather next week. I think we'll see a potentially strong storm system around the end of next week or next weekend followed by some cooler air again.
The last severe weather event on February 11th and 12th wasn't noteworthy with just a few scattered storm reports, it was a bit of a bust.
That's it for today. We'll probably only see isolated to scattered impacts from the severe weather threat tomorrow and Saturday but all the same stay alert of changing weather and have multiple ways of receiving warnings, especially overnight.
Have a good weekend,
Chris
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