Isolated Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow and Thursday for Northern Alabama and Tennessee

April 16, 2024

The SPC is forecasting a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe weather for northern Alabama and most of Tennessee on Wednesday and Thursday. For Wednesday the risk area is from just south of Birmingham up through central and eastern Tennessee. The risk area shrinks a bit Thursday and covers only the northernmost portion of northwest Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee. Wind and hail are the main threats (5% chance each). Rain will move into northwest Alabama and central Tennessee tomorrow morning and will spread to the east-southeast throughout the day, diminishing after dark. The main chance for a severe storm on Wednesday will be from late morning through the evening. On Thursday storms will pop up again around late morning and the chance for a severe storm may last a little longer until the early morning hours Friday.

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday)

Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday)

A front will slowly move through the region from Wednesday through the weekend, hopefully clearing by the start of next week. Rain chances will be confined to the northern part of the region through Thursday morning, at which time coastal areas will have a chance of rain as well. Rainfall totals will be relatively low across the region with the northern part of the region maybe exceeding a half inch (higher for those areas that get a strong storm). A few cool-ish days will follow next week, with above average temps returning by midweek.

Taking a look at the last severe event, the forecast was pretty good as you can see on the verification map below, if not offset to the south a bit. I had originally thought that the tornado forecast busted a bit, but I think 10 reports over an area that size is about right (subjectively).

I'm not expecting any major impacts from the weather this week, just be mindful that a few storms may be strong in the risk areas. The string of storm systems will continue for a bit longer but I think they are starting to shift to the north as we approach summer as we're seeing with this one.

Have a good rest of the week.

Chris