May 7, 2024
I thought we were mostly done with the spring severe weather season but we are in for one more round (there were a few low probability days here and there but I didn't send an update for those). Thankfully we're not going to see anything as bad as the Midwest and Plains has been experiencing but nonetheless there will be a chance for strong storms through Thursday and maybe even Friday. The risk area starts off in the north-northwest portion of our region and then slowly moves south-southeast over the next few days.
For Day 1 (today) there is a Marginal chance of severe weather for the west/northern half of Alabama and all of Tennessee (with a small Slight risk area in TN that won't affect us). Wind and hail are the main threats (5% chance) with a 2% chance of a tornado near the boundary between the Slight and Marginal risk areas in TN. Severe weather timing today is from the afternoon through the evening.
Day 1 (valid 7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Wednesday)
Huntsville Area
Birmingham
Tomorrow (Day 2) has the greatest potential for severe weather with the focus being in Tennessee and northern Alabama. For Wednesday there is a Slight chance of severe weather from about Birmingham north into Tennessee and an Enhanced risk of severe weather covering a good portion of Tennessee. In the Enhanced region there is a 30% chance of damaging winds, 30% chance of hail, and a 5-10% chance of a tornado (depending on location). Significant severe weather is possible in the Enhanced region which includes winds stronger than 75 mph, 2" or larger hail, and EF2 or stronger tornadoes. In the Slight risk area there is a 15% chance of damaging winds and hail and a 2-5% chance of tornado (again, depending on location). A small Marginal risk area extends south of Birmingham with a 5% chance of strong winds and hail. Severe weather timing will be from the afternoon through Wednesday night for TN and then overnight into Thursday morning for northern AL and the Birmingham area.
Day 2 (7 a.m. Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday)
Eastern TN
Huntsville
Montgomery-Birmingham
For Day 3 (Thursday) the severe threat continues but this time farther south. There aren't as many details provided with the Day 3 forecast but as of now there is a Slight risk of severe weather for Alabama south of Montgomery and for the Florida Panhandle from Pensacola to the east with the Slight risk area staying off the immediate coast starting around the Destin area. There is a narrow Marginal risk area covering the coast from Destin through Panama City. Severe timing will be Thursday evening through Friday morning. I do expect the severe weather threat to persist into Friday, maybe a bit farther south, but currently the severe potential is too low and/or the uncertainty too high to warrant a 15% risk (the lowest the SPC issues that far out) for Day 4 (Friday).
Day 3 (7 a.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday)
Mobile-Pensacola
Walton County-Panama City
Other than areas in northern AL and TN I don't expect significant impacts from severe weather but folks in the northern part of our region need to keep their guard up tomorrow night into Thursday morning. With all of these storms some areas may see 2" or more of rain (or more for areas that see repeated storms) over the next 4-5 days. The rain should clear Friday into Saturday with rain chances returning on Monday or Tuesday starting first near the coast. After the front passes we'll have a few nights of slightly cooler temps in the evenings through the weekend. We'll have a few warm days the rest of this week but after that daytime highs look to be right around normal for this time of year through mid month.
Next week I'll send out the first tropical weather update for the season. More details to come but all signs point to a very high level of activity. It's not too early to start thinking about preparations.
I'll send another update if the forecast changes significantly. Otherwise tune into local media and stay alert for watches and warnings in your area.
Stay safe.
Chris
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