Severe Weather Possible or Even Likely Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night, Storms May Linger Until Thursday Morning for the Eastern Gulf Coast

April 9, 2024

We're in the peak of severe weather season and right on cue there may be some significant impacts tomorrow. The core threat area will be in southern Mississippi but significant risks extend to the east and northeast. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Moderate (level 4 out of 5) risk of severe weather tomorrow for southern Mississippi and a few counties in southwest Alabama. An Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk area extends to the east through the western Florida Panhandle and northeast to nearly Montgomery and Birmingham. A Slight risk area continues through most of the rest of Alabama and well into the central Florida Panhandle. In the Moderate risk area there is a 15% chance of a tornado, including EF2 or stronger tornadoes and a 45% chance of damaging winds that could be greater than 75 mph. There is a 10% chance of tornadoes in the Enhanced risk area with the black hatching indicating the possibility of EF2 or stronger tornadoes. Also in the Enhanced risk area is a 30% chance of damaging winds with a small portion of the black hatched area (75 mph or stronger winds possible) extending into the Enhanced region including the Mobile, AL area and a very small portion of the Florida Panhandle. The Slight risk includes a 5% chance of a tornado and a 15% chance of damaging winds. There is a 5% chance of hail throughout the Enhanced risk area and a portion of the Slight risk area. Graphics are below but severe weather timing looks to be from the late morning through the evening and overnight hours from west to east.

The severe threat may linger Thursday morning from the Panama City area to parts east. Farther east the risk will pick up later in the day on Thursday as daytime heating occurs, but for Panama City Thursday morning the risk is at the Marginal level at this time.

Day 2 (7 a.m. Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday) 

Mobile-Pensacola Area 

Montgomery-Birmingham 

Emerald Coast 

Day 3 (7 a.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday) 

If the forecast holds there could be some significant impacts tomorrow and tomorrow night especially for those in or close to the Moderate risk area (yours truly included...). If the forecast changes significantly I'll let you know but stay aware of watches and warnings in your area and tune in to local media for the most up to date info. Stay safe and make sure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings, especially if you may be impacted at night.

After the weather clears out Thursday I think we'll be rain free until early next week or longer and we'll also have three or four days of cool temps through the weekend.

Chris