May 8, 2024
I was hoping not to have to send an update but there's been a forecast change for tomorrow. We also have some details on Friday so I'll share that as well. But before we get to tomorrow I'll update you on the rest of the day and overnight. For most of you the forecast for today is mostly the same. There is now a Moderate Risk area covering a part of Tennessee and the Enhanced risk area has expanded some to the south to include Huntsville. In the Enhanced risk area is a 5% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of hail, and a 30% chance of damaging winds with 75 mph or stronger winds possible. The threats in the Slight and Marginal risk areas over the rest of Alabama remain the same as yesterday. Severe timing is also the same, with the strongest storms coming in one or more rounds overnight.
Day 1 (rest of today through 7 a.m. tomorrow)
For tomorrow there is now a broad Enhanced severe weather risk area across central Alabama. The main threat is a 30% chance of damaging winds with winds stronger than 75 mph possible as indicated by the black hatching. Tornadoes (5% chance) and hail (15% chance) are also possible. A Slight risk area extends from the Enhanced risk area to the coast, pretty much how it looked yesterday. Outside of the Enhanced risk area the main threat will be damaging winds (15% chance) but hail (5-15% chance) and an isolated tornado (2% chance in parts of south Alabama) are also possible. No updated timing graphics yet. Storms will be ongoing tomorrow morning across central Alabama and these will persist on and off throughout the day and into the evening. Some of these may be severe at times, especially the storms in the morning that remain from the severe weather expected overnight tonight. These will diminish in the late evening just as a new round of storms moves in from the west, crossing the state between about midnight and daybreak. It is this second round that has the highest potential for severe weather for central Alabama and it is why the forecast was upgraded. I think the main tornado threat will be from the morning through the evening with the possibility of very strong winds accompanying the storms overnight. Some of these storms may drift into south Alabama or the Florida Panhandle by the morning but their severity should be waning by that point. This is a dynamic situation so the forecast and timing may still change before tomorrow night.
Day 2 (7 a.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday)
After daybreak Friday morning what's left of the storms that moved through central Alabama overnight will be approaching or already along the coast. Right now there is a Marginal chance of severe weather for south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Friday with damaging winds being the main risk. I think the weather will clear by early to mid afternoon which should leave us with a nice (and somewhat cool!) weekend.
Day 3 (7 a.m. Friday - 7 a.m. Saturday)
That's it for today. With the possibility of the strongest storms occurring overnight be sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings, especially if you're in one of the higher risk areas. Hopefully this will be the last significant forecast change, but if not I'll let you know. It still looks like we'll get another weather system on Monday into Tuesday and this time folks along the coast should get a good soaking. We need the rain.
Stay safe.
Chris
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