Severe Weather Again Possible Through Sunday

June 16, 2023

This is getting to be a bit like a broken record. I'm going to try to make this the last email for a few days unless the risk significantly changes so that these don't start becoming spam for you all. I've posted the Outlooks for the next three days below. For today and tomorrow the focus is mostly on coastal areas as it has been but on Day 3 (Sunday) the focus moves north into central Alabama. Expect stormy and unsettled weather to continue, with the main severe threat coming in the afternoon and evening. This doesn't preclude having some severe storms overnight or in the morning as well, so just be aware. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats but an isolated tornado or two is also possible. Heavy rain has been and will continue to be an issue as well.

Day 1 Outlook 7 a.m. Today - 7 a.m. Saturday

Day 2 Outlook 7 a.m. Saturday - 7 a.m. Sunday

Day 3 Outlook 7 a.m. Sunday - 7 a.m. Monday

Unfortunately it still doesn't look like this unsettled pattern will change for at least a week, especially near the coast. I wouldn't be surprised to see the severe weather threat extend beyond Sunday. If it does I'll let you know.

The tropical wave way out east is up to a 50% chance of development now, but the rest of what I said yesterday remains the same (no concerns right now).

Stay safe and have a good weekend.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - One Thing to Watch but No Concerns

June 15, 2023

I think I promised an update on the tropics the other day but with all the severe weather I've been putting it off. Now that there is something in the Atlantic to watch it is a good time. The short story is that there is nothing to be concerned about along the Gulf Coast for the time being and I think it'll stay that way for a week or more. You can probably stop reading right here, but I'll give you some more details if you're curious. To start with, here is the Atlantic 7-Day Outlook:

The "x" and the yellow area is a tropical wave that will push off of Africa and may develop in a few days as it moves west (20% chance right now). I can tell you that this is fairly unusual for this time of year, we typically don't have to be concerned about this kind of development until July at the earliest. The reason we're seeing this so early is because the monsoon trough (a tropical weather feature along the intertropical convergence zone [ITCZ]) is particularly moist and making tropical waves a bit earlier than usual. Also the Atlantic is warmer than normal (over a large area, see below). These two things give us some of the ingredients we need for tropical development: a seed system (tropical wave in this case) and heat (warm water). If wind shear stays low enough as the wave moves west it may stand a chance to develop. Wind shear (the speed and direction difference between low level and high level winds) tends to keep tropical cyclones from organizing if it is strong. Looking at the models, which are prone to error at longer timeframes, there may be an area of favorable wind shear as the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles. If steering winds keep the developing system to the south and through the islands, wind shear is typically high in the eastern and central Caribbean this time of year and I wouldn't expect it to survive (doesn't mean that it won't). If it goes north of the islands towards the Bahamas and East Coast there may be favorable conditions there but I'm not sure at this point. I also don't think we'd see favorable steering conditions to bring a storm to the east coast, but it's too far out to know. My thought is that this will likely not be a threat to the US but we'll have to wait and see. Right now it'll be a week before it is near the Lesser Antilles and then a whole 'nother week at a minimum before we would be concerned.

Let's take a quick look at one more area of the tropics. Below is the 7-Day Outlook for the Eastern Pacific and you can see activity is starting to pick up there. This activity is typical for this time of year and was expected as the EPAC will (probably) have higher than normal activity due to El Nino conditions. The reason I'm pointing this out is because sometimes the zone of favorable conditions will move from the EPAC into the western Caribbean so a burst of activity there can portend activity to the east a week or two later. If this eastward movement of favorable conditions occurs and if we can get a seed system from the tail end of a cold front or from the Central American Gyre (which doesn't look to be active right now), then we might see western Caribbean development. Right now there's not much to show that any of this will happen, I just want you to be aware of a typical development pattern this time of year. As it is, any development in the EPAC should suppress western Caribbean development until any storm(s) there move off to the west and in general El Nino conditions we're having typically make development here less likely (but not impossible).

Along the same subject, if you see model graphics on social media 10+ days out showing a storm in the western Caribbean you can pretty much ignore those. The GFS model in particular this time of year has a bias where it generates spurious storms in this location. It also sometimes has trouble  locating where development should occur when the EPAC is the favored area, it can inadvertently place that development too far east instead. If you have any questions about something you see, feel free to ask me.

To summarize again what I stated at the top, there are no concerns right now for the Gulf Coast even though activity in the tropics is picking up a little. The purpose of this post is to just keep you informed and to serve as a reminder on some of the things we need to look for for tropical development to occur. For the system in the Atlantic I'll send out another update once there is better info in 3-5 days.

Have a good Friday and a good weekend. I'll continue the severe weather updates as needed.

Chris

Severe Weather Threat Continues Today and Tonight

June 15, 2023

We are now in our fifth consecutive day where there has been a severe weather threat in the Southeast and it looks like it will continue through at least Saturday. As I write this the western Florida Panhandle is already under a tornado watch valid until 3 p.m. (I expect this will get extended).

The good news is that the risk for today isn't as high as it was yesterday. Today there is a Slight risk of severe weather from Montgomery south to the coast including all of the Florida Panhandle east to the Big Bend. In this area there is a 5% chance of a tornado for pretty much all of the Panhandle except for Cape San Blas. There is also a 15% chance of hail for the whole Slight risk area, with hail larger than 2" possible (indicated by the hatched area) from the Mobile area east to Panama City. Damaging winds (15% chance) are possible as well. Severe timing is from now (Thursday morning) through this evening. A Marginal risk area with lower chances of severe weather extends north to Birmingham as shown.

Outlook for Today

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Walton County and Panama City Area

Montgomery - Birmingham Area

I'll debrief each day in a separate post covering this whole event after all of this is over, but just for yesterday there were almost 500 reports of severe weather. As mentioned above there will be more rounds of storms for Friday and Saturday that I'll cover tomorrow. Unfortunately as well the unsettled weather may last until late next week...

Stay safe and have a good day.

Chris

Important Update - Severe Storms Likely Today

June 14, 2023

The severe weather threat has increased significantly for today. While most of us will be either to the south or the north of the highest risk area we will still be at risk and sometimes these forecast areas expand or get moved during the day. As you can see there is a Moderate (Red) risk area across a portion of south-central Alabama. In this area, particularly for south-central to southeastern Alabama, there is a 10% chance of a tornado with EF2 or stronger tornadoes possible. Also in the Moderate risk area there is a 30% chance of hail and a 45% chance of damaging winds.

An Enhanced (Orange) risk area extends to the north through part of the Birmingham area and to the south into parts of the western Florida Panhandle. In this area there is a 2-5% chance of a tornado, 5-15% chance of hail, and a 30% chance of damaging winds.

A Slight (Yellow) risk area covers most of the rest of Alabama as well as the Florida Panhandle. Isolated tornadoes (except for northern Alabama), hail, and damaging winds are threats here as well, although with lower probabilities.

Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible starting later this morning and also overnight, take a look at the graphics for your area. The Mobile office had not updated their info as of the time of this writing, but timing should be similar if not a little earlier than that shown by the Tallahassee office. Areas north of Birmingham could see some severe storms this afternoon through the late evening, but the risk is lower than locations to the south.

Outlook for Today and Overnight

Birmingham - Montgomery

Florida Panhandle

Severe weather will also be possible tomorrow and Friday but I'll cover that later as I do not want to detract from today's threat. Right now the risk looks to be lower than it is today.

Stay safe.

Chris

More Severe Weather Possible Today Through Wednesday

June 12, 2023

A line of storms that may be severe is currently pushing south to the coast early this morning. After this more storms are on the way as the front that pushed through Tennessee and northern Alabama yesterday and overnight is going to stall across southern Alabama today. This is going to lead to several days of unsettled weather with severe storms possible for at least the next three days. Rain and/or storms will be possible any time of day but the severe threat will be maximized in the afternoon and evening hours. For today the main threats will be damaging winds and possibly hail. For tomorrow there will be a narrow band across southern Alabama where an isolated tornado is possible (2% chance), otherwise damaging winds and hail remain the main threats. Although not yet shown in the forecast, I would expect damaging winds and hail to be the main threats on Wednesday as well.

Day 1 (7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. tomorrow)

Day 2 (7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

Day 3 (7 a.m. Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday)

Right now it looks like we should expect stormy and rainy weather much of the week. Tennessee and northern Alabama will get a break today I think but rain chances will return tomorrow.

Stay safe and have a good week, I'll let you know if severe weather is in the forecast beyond Wednesday.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Today from Tennessee to the Coast

June 11, 2023

The "spring" severe weather season makes its return today as a late season cold front pushes through the southeast. The Storm Prediction Center is indicating an enhanced (orange) risk for severe weather for most of Tennessee and for northern Alabama south to just north of Montgomery. A slight (yellow) risk area covers most of the rest of Alabama to the south with a thin Marginal (dark green) region covering the western Florida Panhandle. While there is an isolated (2%) chance of a tornado from about Huntsville north into Tennessee, the main threat will be hail and damaging winds. In the enhanced region there is a 30% chance of hail from just north of Birmingham to the north into Tennessee with a 15% chance for most of the rest of Alabama to the south and a 5% chance right to the AL/FL line. For damaging winds there is a 30% chance from Tennessee south to almost Montgomery with a 15% chance again down to the AL/FL and a 5% chance extending to the coast. Timing graphics are shown for each area. While some storms are possible during the day, limited severe weather is expected with those. The main severe weather risk will be with a line of storms that will push across the area from the mid afternoon through tomorrow morning north to south.

Day 1 Outlook

Eastern TN

Huntsville Area

Birmingham-Montgomery

Mobile-Pensacola

It may be time to watch the tropics again towards the end of this week or beginning of next week. If you see anything on social media showing a storm hitting some area don't pay attention to it, there is no skill to the model runs going out 7+ days. I'll put out a tropical weather update in a day or two.

Stay safe if storms impact your area today and have a good Sunday.

Chris

Gulf Tropical Development Seems Likely Now - Limited Impacts Expected

June 1, 2023

Well that escalated quickly, just in time for the first day of hurricane season. The development forecast for the Gulf system went from 20% at 2 a.m. EDT to 50% at 8 a.m. and is now at 70%. Conditions are still "marginally favorable" but development of a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely as soon as later today. If development occurs it is not expected to live long as the marginal conditions are expected to degrade. The system is expected to remain more or less stationary today and then start moving to the south tomorrow. It's grey and windy along the Panhandle and this along with a stray shower will likely be our only impacts.

It's interesting to see this system develop that just a short while ago was not expected to but other than that there's no concerns with this.

Have a good Friday and a good weekend.

Chris