The Tropics Are Very Busy But No Significant Threats to the Gulf or East Coast

August 20, 2023

Here's a quick update on the tropics this Sunday afternoon. There are five systems on the 7-Day Outlook at various stages of development. The good news is that other than Invest 91L in the Gulf that will bring some impacts to the Texas/Mexico border area later this week there are no other threats to the US (not in my email: I should have said that there are no significant threats to the Gulf or East Coast of the US, Hillary is bringing significant impacts to the Southwest). I've included some forecast cones for completeness.

Franklin's Forecast

Emily's Forecast

TD 6's Forecast

So again no big concerns despite all of the activity. The Southwest Caribbean may need to be watched towards next weekend but that is still fairly uncertain right now and may just be noise in the models.

Have a great week!

Chris

Tropics Starting to get Busy But No Concerns at the Moment

August 17, 2023

Below is the 7-Day Tropical Outlook from this afternoon. Even though the tropics look busy there are really no concerns right now. There are a couple of tropical waves out east that may develop but they are likely to curve to the northwest (or north) and miss the Gulf if not the US altogether. The yellow spot in the Gulf will get your attention but it is not a concern for those of us east of Louisiana. Basically a low pressure system may form in the Gulf early next week (30% chance) from the combination of the northern end of a tropical wave and upper level low moving across the Greater Antilles and Bahamas. As it moves fairly fast to the west a tropical system may try to spin up which would bring impacts to the Texas/Mexico border area around midweek with maybe some impacts (much needed rain) up the Texas coast towards Louisiana. We might see some rain in the Florida Panhandle as the system tracks to our south but this doesn't look very likely right now. 

Other than the above, computer models are sniffing out the possibility of additional activity a week or so from now but it's not anything we need to talk about yet. Expect warmer and drier than normal weather to continue through the end of the month. Into September it will still be warm but maybe not as much so and we should see normal or slightly above normal precipitation return.

The expectation from seasonal forecasts is still that we should see a ramp up in tropical activity later this month and on into September. It remains to be seen if this will pan out but above average activity continues to be the consensus (not unanimous though).

Have a great weekend.

Chris

 

Tropical Weather Update

July 26, 2023

Synopsis: no short term concerns (last week's wave will not develop), maybe some stormy weather in the Gulf or near-coastal areas this weekend. Also, there's another tropical wave out east that may develop early next week (30% chance, see below), probably not a threat to the Gulf if it does develop but something to watch.

Diving a bit deeper, the tropical wave that I mentioned last Wednesday was up to a 70% chance of development at one point and has now dropped off the outlook completely. Non-development was the general expectation despite the system looking like it was close to developing Friday and Saturday.

I don't have much more to say about the new tropical wave east of the African coast. There is not yet a consensus with the models if this will develop or not and those that do take the storm on a track that would probably keep it out of the Gulf. It's something to watch as always but it's too far out in the future to have any concerns.

Below is what the 7-Day Outlook looked like yesterday. You can see the wave from last week (now in the Caribbean) before it dropped off the outlook. You can also see a feature east of the Bahamas. This low pressure area was identified on one of Monday's outlooks and then was dropped early this morning. I'm bringing this up because a few models are hinting that this area (which still exists, it's just not a tropical threat) may bring some stormy weather to the Florida Peninsula and then the Panhandle and adjacent areas as it drifts west through the weekend. I don't think current rain changes are reflecting this possibility and the Florida Panhandle, Southern Georgia, and Southern Alabama areas may see more precip coverage Saturday and Sunday (maybe into next week if it stalls) than is currently forecast. This is far from certain at this point, just something to keep in mind as we get closer to the weekend. Either way, no major impacts are expected. 

That's it for today. I mainly wanted to follow up on last week's update and point out that there may be a few more showers along the coast this weekend as well as point out the next tropical wave moving across the Atlantic.

Have a good rest of the week and a great weekend.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - Low Chance of Development Next Week

July 19, 2023

It has been almost a month since my last weather update. The tropics have been quiet (other than Don way out in the Atlantic) and while the weather in the Southeast has been notable at times I wouldn't have been telling you anything you didn't already know.

I've been wanting to write a tropical weather update as there has been much discussion but with activity being low in the Atlantic I thought I'd wait until there was something less speculative to discuss (as there is today). The yellow area on the 7-Day Outlook below is a tropical wave that has a 20% chance of development according to the National Hurricane Center. Various models and ensembles have been suggesting this wave might develop around early next week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and this is what the NHC forecast is indicating. Right now it's too far out in time to be concerned about but it may be something to start paying more attention to in a week's time. In the short term at least it's going to be battling some adverse conditions as it moves west but that may change some by the weekend.

The real item I've wanted to discuss is what to expect for the rest of the season. Without going into too many details there are conflicting indications (and ideas) of what is in store for the rest of the season. On the one hand, the presence of a developing El Nino usually suppresses hurricane activity. On the other hand, virtually the entire North Atlantic is much warmer than average (see below). The thinking is that this additional heat may offset some of the negative impacts of El Nino. This has been reflected in some long term models as well as some seasonal forecasts. Colorado State University has increased its forecast for the season to "average" activity, up from the below average forecast they predicted in the spring. Other forecasters and groups have done the same with some even expecting an above average season. With that said there are still quite a few forecasters who either expect El Nino to still dominate and suppress activity or who are more in a "wait and see" frame of mind. As a somewhat subjective general consensus, average to below average activity from here on out seems reasonable at this point but that could go the other way. 

Another factor in this that I've read about is that even though El Nino is evident in sea surface temperatures the atmosphere hasn't fully responded yet. My understanding is this is why we in the Southeast are alternating between several days of rainy and stormy weather followed by hot and dry and then back again as the atmosphere transitions to a more El Nino like state (which would be a little cooler and more rainy for us than a normal summer). The bottom line is we don't know what the rest of the season holds, but I wanted to discuss this briefly because there are some people who are expecting a lot of activity and you might see some of this on social media. They may be correct but we shouldn't be preparing any differently regardless of what the seasonal forecasts are saying because there is always the possibility that any given location may be impacted by a storm.

That's it for today. I'll send another update early next week if development chances increase for the wave in the Atlantic.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible in AL & TN Tomorrow, Maybe FL & AL on Monday

June 24, 2023

First, don't be concerned that we're about to go back into a prolonged period of unsettled weather, that is not the case. We have another late season front moving through that will bring with it a chance of severe weather the next few days. Once it pushes through it looks like we'll have pretty nice weather the rest of the week with the typical chance of a thunderstorm we see in the summer.

For tomorrow there is a Slight chance of severe weather for the northwest half of Alabama and most of Tennessee with a Marginal risk area extending a bit to the southeast. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats. There is an Enhanced risk area as well in TN, but as far as I know none of you all will be in that area tomorrow. On Monday the risk shifts to the southeast half of Alabama and along the coast as the front moves through. There aren't a lot of details out for day three but I would expect a Marginal risk, maybe a small Slight risk area, with damaging winds and hail the likely threats. If that changes significantly I'll send an update but I think that should cover it. Timing is as shown below for each area for Sunday. For Monday I'd expect to see a few storms from the morning through maybe the afternoon, perhaps lingering a little later. I'm not really confident in the timing just yet.

Day 2 (7 a.m. Sunday - 7 a.m. Monday)

Eastern TN

Huntsville Area

Birmingham - Montgomery

Mobile

Corrected Day 3 (7 a.m. Monday - 7 a.m. Tuesday), First Email Had Outdated Graphic

Birmingham and Parts South

That's it for today. I don't expect any major impacts but stay weather aware. Have a good rest of the weekend and a good start to the week.

Chris

Two Storms Being Watched in the Tropics - No Impacts to the US

June 22, 2023

Before I get to the tropics it looks like the unsettled weather will finally be ending this weekend (a few details at the bottom)!

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Storm Bret and Tropical Depression Four out in the Atlantic. Neither of these will be a threat to the US. This was expected but has been good to let the forecast mature to make sure. Currently there are no other areas of tropical development expected in the Atlantic. You can stop reading here if you want.

Tropical Storm Bret is expected to bring some impacts to the Lesser Antilles before moving into the Caribbean and dissipating. Notice that the 5-Day forecast only goes out to Saturday as Bret is not expected to survive past day 3.

Tropical Depression Four is expected to strengthen a little to tropical storm strength later today or tomorrow and that should more or less be the strongest it will be. As it moves west it is expected to be picked up by a steering feature that will pull it to the northwest on a track that will likely miss this islands where it will then track into the Western Atlantic and weaken.

Other than these two storms there are no other areas being watched. There is another tropical wave behind TD 4 that looked like it may try to develop but models have mostly dropped that idea, though not completely. The NHC hasn't identified it as an area to watch so it's nothing to be concerned about. The Eastern Pacific, which hasn't seen any development yet, is still being watched for development with a storm likely to form in the next week. I mentioned a few updates ago that sometimes activity in this area can indicate that the Western Caribbean may become active a few weeks later. Really I'm not seeing anything to suggest activity in this area any time soon, so I'm more or less bringing it up to tell you there are no concerns about what I said previously.

If you're still reading, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel regarding the stormy weather pattern in the Southeast. The severe weather threat has already backed off and we'll see the stormy pattern break up this weekend. It is summer so we'll still have our daily chance of pop up storms but the high rain chances look to be over for a while starting Saturday or Sunday.

Have a good end of the week and a great weekend.

Chris

Update on the Tropics Aaand...More Severe Weather

June 19, 2023

We're going to talk about the tropics and severe weather today.

Synopsis: there are two systems being watched in the Atlantic, one just developed into a tropical depression as I was writing this (now TD 3), and development with the second is not yet certain (40% chance) but getting more likely. It is still a long way out for both systems, but what I'm seeing right now is that impacts to the US seem unlikely. Also, severe storms will remain possible in the Southeast through Wednesday if not for longer. Details on both situations below.

Talking tropics first, two systems, TD 3 and Invest 93L, are moving west across the tropical Atlantic. Looking at the 7-Day Outlook below if you didn't know any better you would think we were in August instead of mid June. This is very abnormal activity in this region of the Atlantic this time of year.

The lead system, now TD 3 (previously Invest 92L), just developed this morning and is expected to strengthen as it continues west. I won't go into too many details here but models are in two camps with this storm. Some models bring TD 3 west as a bit of a stronger storm. The good news with this scenario is that a stronger storm is likely to feel a steering influence that will take it out to sea to the north. Other models keep the storm weaker but on more of a westerly track. You can see below that this solution looks to be the consensus at this time. Even though this more westward track would be a concern for us in the US, it is expected that a weak (or weakening) storm entering the eastern Caribbean would run into hostile conditions and likely dissipate. So right now either solution likely leads to a situation where the US isn't at risk. The official forecast below seems to contradict what I just stated so let me try to clarify that. The NHC forecast strengthens the storm fairly quickly, having it become a hurricane by Wednesday. After that conditions are expected to become more hostile slowing down strengthening or even starting to weaken the storm. I think this part of the forecast occurs before a stronger storm would feel the northward tug and so the NHC has a weakening storm moving into the Caribbean instead of a stronger storm being pulled north. I will note that the NHC discussion mentioned that there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for the storm strength and that there will likely be adjustments in the track in the future. The cone can look kind of scary, but everything I'm seeing leads me to think we will be fine.

The second system, the orange one, Invest 93L, still has several days to go before (if) it develops. Again it's too far out to know for sure, but a majority of models at this time eventually pull this system north out to sea leading me to conclude that there is little to no risk with this system at this time. This system is still too new for pretty graphics, but we will have those later today and I'll share them next time.

Now getting to the severe weather chances... I won't go into detail here, but expect the weather along the coast and central to southern Alabama to be about the same as it has been. Day to day specific details and timing may vary, but expect a chance of severe storms for today at least through Wednesday (and probably beyond). Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will all be possible. The overall risk level isn't high, but it is enough of a risk that we should all be aware of what is going on in our area and take that into account when making plans for the day. Unfortunately I'm not yet seeing much of a break in this pattern, so expect it to continue through next weekend if not beyond.

Today through Tomorrow Morning

7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday

7 a.m.Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday

I crammed a lot in this update today (instead of sending two emails) and hopefully it makes sense. If you want more details on something let me know. Otherwise stay safe and have a good week. Because both of these situations will be ongoing later in the week, I'll probably repeat this format for my next update midweek.

Chris