Winter Weather Looking More Likely for Coastal Areas Early Next Week

January 17, 2025

An unusual winter weather pattern is expected to affect the region next week. While temperatures are anticipated to be very cold, though maybe not record-breaking, the main focus is on the potential for winter weather along the coast. The possibility has existed for a while, but we're close enough now to say that frozen precipitation is looking likely with maybe even some accumulation.

Key Uncertainties

Several important questions remain unanswered:

1. Type of precipitation (see below)
2. Amount of accumulation (none to maybe 2-4 inches)
3. Timing of the event (starting late Monday or early Tuesday?, lasting until Wednesday?)

These details are expected to become clearer by Sunday or Monday.

Current Outlook

The forecast currently suggests a range of possibilities, from no precipitation (unlikely) to several inches of snow (also unlikely), with various scenarios in between.

Model Comparisons

Two models for Tuesday at 6 p.m. show similar but slightly different scenarios (GFS top, Euro bottom):

1. GFS Model: Predicts freezing rain/sleet slightly north of the Euro model's prediction, indicating a different storm track. No changeover to rain is forecasted.
2. Euro Model: Shows a changeover to rain after initial snow/sleet/ice, which is not present in the GFS model.

These differences reflect subtle variations in the storm track, cold air positioning, and moisture availability.

Snow Probabilities

For those hoping for snow, the Euro model (bottom) is slightly more optimistic:

• Probability of at least 1 inch of snow is shown
• Chances decrease rapidly for accumulations beyond 1 inch
• Significant accumulations are not expected at this time
• A 2-4 inch range (10-20% chance) is possible if the snow band stays to the south

It's important to note that in southern regions, the exact outcome of winter storms can be difficult to predict until the weather event actually occurs. This aims to provide an overview of possibilities rather than a definitive prediction.

That's it for today. Let's watch how the forecast evolves. Have a good weekend and I'll send another update on Sunday.

Chris

Winter Storm Conditions Expected for Central to Northern Alabama and Tennessee as the Cold Pattern Continues

January 9, 2025

A significant winter storm will impact much of the Southeast through Saturday morning. Here's what to expect:

Timing and Accumulations

Snow will begin early Friday morning, with the most likely start times between 4-7 AM for Tennessee and northern Alabama. Expected accumulations of 2-4 inches of snow are forecast, with ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch possible. Areas south of Huntsville or the AL/TN state line may see a changeover to rain later on Friday. 

Regional Impacts

Northern Alabama/Tennessee

• Winter Storm Warning in effect through 6 AM Saturday
• Dangerous driving conditions with widespread closures
• Areas like Huntsville, Florence, and Cullman will see the greatest impacts
• Potential for scattered power outages and downed tree branches

Central Alabama

• Hazardous driving conditions around Birmingham and Anniston
• Mixed precipitation likely
• Infrastructure disruptions possible

Southern Alabama

• Limited winter weather impacts
• Winter driving conditions possible

Keep in mind that southern winter storms are notoriously difficult to forecast and that rain/freezing precip line may move north or south and accumulations may vary a bit. 

Extended Outlook

The Gulf Coast may experience a few showers on Sunday and Monday due to a coastal system. Following this, the next significant weather system is anticipated for the weekend of January 18-19 as the current weather pattern maintains its grip on the region. I think we'll see more frozen precip as well, but it'll be awhile before we have details on location, timing, and accumulation.

Stay safe (and warm!) and have a good rest of the week and weekend.

Chris

A Few Severe Storms Possible Tonight into the Morning, Followed by Cold and Maybe Winter WX

January 5, 2025

Happy New Year! I hope you all had a great holiday season. We are in for an extended period of winter weather (more later), but first a few strong storms are possible Sunday Night into Monday Morning.

Timing and Location

• Birmingham/Central Alabama: 7 PM Sunday - 1 AM Monday
• Florida Panhandle/Big Bend: Monday morning and afternoon
• Mobile/Pensacola Area: 9 PM Sunday - 4 AM Monday

Primary Hazards

• Isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
• Brief tornadoes possible, especially near Alabama/Mississippi border
• Greatest severe threat over southeast Mississippi

Cold Weather Following Storms

• Temperatures will drop sharply behind the front on Monday
• Highs ranging from 30s north to 50s south on Monday
• Lows dropping into the 20s Tuesday through Friday morning, with teens possible in colder locations

Late Week Winter System

• New system developing Thursday in northern Gulf
• Winter precipitation possible Thursday night through Friday night
• Highest chances for snow/sleet/freezing rain north of Livingston-Montgomery-Auburn line
• Greatest snow potential well north of I-20
• System timing and exact track still uncertain

Extended Cold Pattern

• Cold temperatures expected to persist through next weekend
• Highs in the 30s north to 40s south
• Lows mainly in the 20s, with teens possible in typical cold spots

December 27-29 Severe Weather Debrief

• Many strong storms all three days, very good forecast from the SPC

That's it for today. There may be a few more severe storms near the coast later this week, but no significant impacts expected. I'll let you know about the potential for winter weather in a few days.

Chris

Severe Weather Threat Increased for Today and Overnight

The risk level has increased for the significant severe weather outbreak expected today and tonight across the Southeast.

Threat Areas
A Moderate Risk (red, level 4 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms is in place for parts of:

- Extreme western Alabama, extending west into parts of Mississippi and Louisiana

This is surrounded by Enhanced (orange, level 3 out of 5) and Slight (yellow, level 2 out of 5) risk areas extending across much of the Southeast and Texas.

- An Enhanced risk area extends into central Alabama, including Mobile and the western suburbs of Montgomery and Birmingham

- The remainder of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are in a Slight risk area

Primary Hazards

Multiple severe weather threats are expected:

- Tornadoes, some potentially strong, with EF2+ damage possible in western and central Alabama

- Severe wind gusts, especially in the Moderate and Enhanced risk areas

- Large hail (lower chance)

The greatest tornado potential will occur with any discrete (isolated) supercells, particularly near the warm front, which will lift north throughout the day. Later, as storms organize into linear segments, embedded bow echoes may produce both tornadoes and widespread damaging winds.

Timing and Evolution

The severe weather threat will progress in phases:

- This afternoon and evening: Scattered storms ahead of the squall line

- Tonight: A squall line, timing uncertain, will move through sometime from this evening to the morning

Mobile and Pensacola Areas

Birmingham and Montgomery

Florida Panhandle

As stated, the greatest tornado threat will occur ahead of the main line of storms. With the squall line the main threat will be damaging winds but there may be a few tornadoes as well.

The weather will rapidly evolve today. Have a plan on how to seek shelter if needed and make sure you have more than one way to receive warnings if they occur in your area. The risk for tomorrow is mostly unchanged for the Panhandle.

Stay safe.

Chris 

Severe Weather Possible the Rest of Today Through Sunday

I hope everyone had a great Christmas! I apologize for not sending out a travel weather update, it completely slipped my mind.

A significant severe weather threat is unfolding across the southeastern United States from Friday, December 27, through Sunday, December 29, 2024. Here's a summary of the severe weather risk:

Friday, December 27

A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening from southeast Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. The main threats include:

- Locally gusty winds

- Brief tornadoes

The overall threat is marginal due to slow air mass recovery (lack of warm, unstable air) and widespread cloud cover limiting destabilization, although there have been two confirmed tornadoes in the Mobile, AL area.

Saturday, December 28

The severe weather risk significantly escalates, with an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms from portions of East Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. This regional outbreak may include:

- Large hail

- Damaging winds

- Strong tornadoes

Key points for Saturday:

- Severe weather timing will be from the afternoon through Sunday morning

- Development of numerous strong to severe storms from East Texas to the Tennessee Valley

- Potential for supercells (tornado producing storms) and linearly organized bowing segments (strong to very strong winds)

Sunday, December 29

A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast for parts of the Southeast and the Carolinas. The severe weather threat includes:

- Damaging wind gusts

- A couple of tornadoes

Notable factors for Sunday:

- Severe weather timing will be from the morning through the afternoon

- Ongoing storms early morning across parts of Alabama or western Georgia

- Gradual reintensification of convection through early afternoon

The severe weather risk is expected to diminish Sunday evening as buoyancy weakens.

For the rest of the week:

-Clear weather through Friday except for some showers in eastern Tennessee on Tuesday

-Below normal temps, possibly extending into the second week of January

That's it for today. For the last three updates there was only one notable severe weather report, a tornado in southeast Alabama on December 9th.

Happy New Year and stay safe!

Chris

Isolated Severe Storms and Heavy Rain Possible Through Wednesday

December 9, 2024

Severe storms are expected from late morning through the evening hours on Tuesday for parts of the Southeast, heavy rainfall is the main impact for most:

Primary Threat Areas

A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms exists across:

- Central and South Alabama

- Southwest Georgia

- Florida Panhandle

Hazard Types

The Storm Prediction Center outlook panels show:

- Tornado Risk: 2% probability in central Alabama and southwest Georgia

- Wind Threat: 5% probability in the same area

Primary Threats

- Isolated rotating storms and bowing segments

- Damaging wind gusts

- Possible tornadoes

- Limited severe potential due to widespread convection and cloud cover

The overall severe weather risk remains marginal, with the greatest potential for severe weather focused across the Southeast region during the Tuesday forecast period.

Valid 6 a.m. Tuesday - 6 a.m. Wednesday





Excess rainfall is also a risk:

Day 1 Rainfall Outlook (rest of today/Monday)

A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall exists along the Central Gulf Coast with:

Rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour

Training storms possible in southwest-east oriented bands

Primary concerns for urban areas including New Orleans, Biloxi, and Mobile

Expected rainfall totals of 1-2 inches, with 20-40% chance of exceeding 3 inches



Day 2 Rainfall Outlook (Tuesday)

A Slight Risk extends from southeastern Alabama to upstate South Carolina featuring:

Areal average rainfall totals of 2-3 inches

Locally higher amounts possible

Primary impact zone from southeastern Alabama through central Georgia into upstate South Carolina

Expected rainfall:

2-3 inches widespread (locally up to 4 inches) from SE Alabama through Central GA to Upstate SC



After the rain clears out, expect another few days of cold weather. It is still expected that the second half of December will be mostly warm but there will probably be 2-4 more shots of cold air before January.

Stay safe and have a good week.

Chris