Severe Weather Possible Overnight Into Friday

December 31, 2020

I don't have a lot of time to write a lot of details this morning as we're heading back from a short trip. Severe weather is possible starting this evening and lasting into Friday. The worst of it looks to stay to our west as you can see in the Day 1 & 2 Outlook maps. Still, there will be some threat from the Panhandle and west Alabama that lessens and moves eastward overnight. A warm front will lift north across the region later today bringing the first and main threat of severe weather. This will be followed by a cold front that will sweep in from the west tomorrow morning that will provide a lesser threat for severe weather. All three modes of severe weather (tornadoes, wind, and hail) are possible today and overnight with tornadoes and wind being the main threats tomorrow, again to a lesser extent.

Day 1

Day 2

Here's how the event may look on simulated radar, keep in mind this will not be exact as far as timing and location goes.

These threat maps usually change a little bit as we get closer to the event so check your local weather sources for updated info if you have any plans tonight. As always make sure you have a way of receiving weather alerts and keep and eye out for changing weather.

Happy New Year!

Chris

Update to Severe Weather Risk and Timing for Tonight

December 23, 2020

The timing and risk level for severe weather overnight have changed a bit so I wanted to provide an update. On the Day 1 Outlook the SPC has added a slight (yellow) risk area that covers the Alabama coast and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle. This area corresponds to a 5% tornado risk and a 15% damaging wind risk. Extending into the rest of the Panhandle and the southern third of Alabama is a Marginal risk area that corresponds to a 2% tornado risk and 5% damaging wind risk. This outlook is valid until 6 a.m. tomorrow. 

The Day 2 outlook beginning at 6 a.m. tomorrow shows a marginal risk area for most of the Panhandle and the southeast corner of Alabama corresponding to a 2% tornado risk and 5% damaging wind risk.

Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon with coverage increasing overnight through tomorrow morning as the cold front approaches from the west. Some of the isolated storms coming off the Gulf after midnight may be severe but the main event will be along the front as it pushes through from the pre-dawn hours to late morning from west to east. Yesterday I thought the front would clear the area by noon but it looks like showers won't leave the eastern Panhandle until the afternoon or early evening hours. The model animation below will give you a rough idea what the weather will look like, just keep in mind timing could be off by several hours and storm location could be off by 1-2 counties.

The wind will be breezy today ahead of the front with strong cold winds behind tomorrow. I don't think this will be a major or widespread event but it's always good to make sure you have a way to receive watches and warnings and to keep an eye out for rapidly changing weather. Temps Christmas night will be the coldest of the season so far so make sure to protect your plants and exposed pipes if you haven't done so yet.

Have a great rest of the week and again have a Merry Christmas!

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Wed Night & Early Thurs, Cold and Sunny on Christmas

December 22, 2020

It's been a while since my last email. The weather's been pretty typical for this time of year with only a really low chance for severe weather a time or two that didn't come to much. On Wednesday evening a strong storm system will move east. This storm will bring a white Christmas for some people as far south as eastern Tennessee. Northern Alabama could see a little but right now that doesn't look very likely.

Before the cold air moves in there will be severe weather risk sometime between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Timing is a bit uncertain but it looks like the weather will move through between midnight and a few hours after dawn. Right now there is a marginal risk for severe weather for most of  Alabama and the Florida Panhandle overnight Wednesday with this area narrowing to just the Panhandle and southeast Alabama by Thursday morning. Wind shear, one of the ingredients needed for severe weather, will be plentiful but instability, one of the other ingredients, will be limited. Because of this there is only a 2% tornado risk and a 5% damaging wind risk although we may see the tornado risk increase to 5% as we get closer. This high shear low CAPE (instability) scenario is typical for the southeast this time of year. Instability will be the greatest in isolated pockets and this is where the worse weather will be. This is good because it keeps the threat limited to isolated storms here or there but it makes it difficult to predict.

This system will move through quickly so except for snowfall in eastern Tennessee on the backside all of the weather should clear the area probably before noon Thursday. If you're going to be on the road early be careful and keep an eye out for changing weather. Windy cold air will move in quickly behind the front so expect a windy and cool Christmas Eve day and evening. Christmas Day will be cold, it may not even reach 50 all the way to the beach with highs in the upper 40's near the coast and upper to low 30s from Montgomery north. Christmas night will be cold with freezing temps likely all the way to the coast and lows in the upper to low 20's from the FL/AL line northward. Temps will warm up through the weekend and for the start of the last week of the year.

If the severe weather risk increases I will send an update, otherwise have a great week and a Merry Christmas!

Chris

Slight Chance of Severe WX Today Followed by Cold Air

 November 29, 2020

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight (yellow) risk for severe weather near the FL and AL coasts with a Marginal (dark green) risk extending a little farther inland in southern AL today through tonight. In the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of tornadoes and damaging winds. The 5% damaging wind risk extends throughout the Marginal area but with the tornado risk reduced to 2%. Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as a warm front lifts north ahead of an approaching cold front and will persist until the cold front passes late this evening. There is a bit of uncertainty with this forecast and the SPC expects severe storms to only occur in isolated areas.

After the front passes we can expect several days of cold and sometimes breezy weather with a night or two of freezing temps almost all the way to the beaches. Northern AL and TN may even see some winter precip on the back side of the cold front. Lows may reach the upper 20's even in the northern FL Panhandle with Northern AL well into the mid to low 20's, eastern TN may see one night in the upper teens in places. We should see another weather system sometime between midweek and the weekend. There is a general pattern in place that will keep cooler than average weather in place maybe through the end of the second week of December with precipitation expected to be mostly below normal for this time of year.

That's it for today. Keep an eye out on the weather and have multiple ways of receiving alerts if you're in the severe weather risk area. Some of us haven't experienced freezing weather this year so it's time for us to protect our outdoor plants. Have a great week.

Chris

Last Tropical Update of the Season? Also a Look at Other Weather

November 22, 2020

The tropics look like they're finally quieting down. The last area of interest we had in the Caribbean didn't materialize thankfully. You can see the NHC is watching an area off the East Coast. Development changes don't look very good but if something does develop it'll go out to sea. All other areas look quiet with nothing significant to note on the models. Several trusted sources seem to think we may be done for the year, let's hope so... Hurricane season doesn't officially end until the end of the month and we've actually had systems develop into January. All the same chances for a significant storm are rapidly diminishing. This will be my last update on the tropics unless something significant pops up. As I get time I may recap some of the interesting stats and storms from the 2020 season.

Up here in the mid latitudes we're starting to get into the typical winter weather pattern. Before we get to that, let's look at the winter outlook. The La Nina pattern that has been partially responsible for our active hurricane season will also affect our winter weather. Below are the winter temperature and precipitation outlooks from NOAA. The southeast is forecast to be warmer and dryer than normal for the period from December to February. La Nina doesn't always produce this pattern and seasonal forecasts can often be wrong, but this is currently what we can expect. Note that even if these forecasts are correct that doesn't mean that we won't get cold air or some good rain showers as the winter progresses.

Taking a look at the near term we'll have a series of fronts move through over the next 7 days. The first front is currently pushing south through northern AL and TN. It is producing rain but it is expected to dry out as it keeps moving south. The next system will come through about midweek bringing rainy and stormy weather. It looks like it'll clear the area by Thanksgiving morning but there could be a few lingering showers in the eastern Panhandle. After that a messy series of systems will approach from the west on Friday with rainy and stormy weather lasting through the weekend. Right now severe weather chances don't look too high but that is something to watch for this time of year. Some areas could see fairly high rain totals through 7 days, with most of it coming from the weekend system. Temps will dip a little as each front clears out but I don't think we'll get too far below normal this week. Around the first of the month we may see quite a big dip with low temps near freezing or below from Montgomery north and lows potentially in the 30's from there south to the coast. As we've seen in the past this info should be pretty reliable out to midweek but it is subject to significant changes beyond that.

That is all I have for today. Now that the tropics are quiet I'll reduce the frequency of updates to every week or week and a half unless extreme or severe weather is threatening.

Stay safe and have a great Thanksgiving.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update

November 15, 2020

There are two storms on the NHC outlook map this morning, Theta and Iota. Theta formed way out in the eastern North Atlantic and has been moving east. It hasn't been a threat to land but it may eventually bring some stormy weather to the archipelago of Madeira and parts of Europe. Iota formed from Invest 98L in the Caribbean and has been moving west. In a year of records, it had the strongest initial forecast for any storm when it first became TD 31 on Friday. It is now a hurricane and is forecast to become a major hurricane and make landfall in Central America near where Eta did. Iota is expected to stay on a westward track and not come north.

In the longer term there is the possibility of more tropical development in the same location in the Caribbean later this week through the weekend. Right now the signal isn't very strong, but it's something to keep an eye on.

In other weather there is currently a front moving through the Southeast, some of you in northern Alabama and Tennessee have already experienced some stormy weather from it. It looks like the rain chances dimension as the front pushes south. On the coast the NWS forecast only calls for "a stray light shower or sprinkle." Temps will drop as the front passes but it will really only bring us down a little cooler than we should be for this time of year. Temps will warm back up towards the end of the week. Right now it looks like it may be a week or more before the next weather system comes through although that is subject to change of course.

That is all I have this morning. I'll let you know if anything concerning pops up in the tropics. Have a great week.

Chris

Eta Now Headed Just North of Tampa...

November 11, 2020

First of all Happy Veterans Day! Second of all, what a difference a day makes, or day and a half. I just realized that I called the last email I sent on Monday night "Tuesday Night Update...," I'm not sure what that was about...I'll correct the blog, you all make pen and ink changes on your end...Also, nobody responded to tell me what they thought the spaghetti models looked like...Anyhow, Eta is now solidly headed just north of Tampa and I think we can feel good that this forecast won't change. Eta has regained hurricane strength but is expected to weaken some before landfall tomorrow.

Frankly I don't understand everything that caused so many changes in the forecast and models. I was really starting to think this was going to go to the west. Maybe this will turn into a case study so I can learn more. I think partly it was due to some better data we got yesterday from a hurricane hunter flying around the far outer edge of the storm sampling the large scale environment. I think it is also due in part to Eta being a little stronger than expected, a weaker storm would have headed more to the northwest. Below is an animation of the forecast cone changes since Friday the 6th. Once this is all over I'll make an animation of Eta's entire life in the cone through four landfalls.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Theta is doing its thing to the east. The red area in the Caribbean has been designated Invest 98L. Right now it is mainly considered to be a threat to Central America, and maybe quite a substantial one. In the long term we'll have to watch and see if it tries to come north.

That is it for today. We'll keep an eye on 98L, which will probably become Iota soon. Conditions are also generally favorable for even more development in the Caribbean so we will have to keep an eye out for that over the next few weeks.

Chris