Quick Update - Fred's Track Shifted Significantly West

August 13, 2021

Fred's track shifted significantly west with the 5 p.m. Eastern update. The 8 p.m. intermediate advisory map is below. I've been out of pocket for a while so I didn't catch this until now. I'm going to wait until 10 p.m. central for the next full update from the NHC and I'll send a more detailed email after that. This westward shift means more time over water so I'm a little concerned we may see the intensity forecast increase but that may not happen depending on the overall environment.

Chris

Thursday Evening Update on Fred and Invest 95L

August 12, 2021

There are a couple of systems to talk about today. Fred only just survived its trip across Hispanolia, it's probably not even a tropical cyclone anymore but the NHC has stuck with calling it a depression as it is still producing squally conditions. The forecast track for Fred has been very consistent but there is still some uncertainty. With Fred being so weak models sort of lose track of the storm and solutions start to diverge. How much Fred restrengthens also affects the track as a very weak system will go more to the west where a stronger system more to the northwest. The NHC is expecting some restrengthening so their track has remained northwesterly. Fred is expected to regain some strength but it will be an uphill battle for at least the next day. Starting Friday night Fred will have a better environment but once we get to the weekend land interaction could again become a factor if the storm rides up the west coast of Florida. Although the intensity forecast is a bit uncertain there are no solutions or expectations for significant strengthening at this time and the current forecast maxes out at 50 mph Sunday afternoon.

Moving on, Invest 95L is a developing tropical wave located about 1,000 miles east of the Caribbean. This system currently has a 60% chance of development over the next 2-days and a 70% chance over 5 days. This system looks to take a very similar path as Fred, at least initially, although a few models show the storm recurving into the Atlantic. Intensity guidance is split with some models showing very slow development (or none at all) with others showing a strong tropical storm within three days. This system will be in the presence of some wind shear and dry air to its north that should limit development a bit through the weekend. Even so, the NHC does expect a tropical depression to form by Sunday. Once development does occur we'll get a better idea what the long term forecast may look like.

That's it for today. I'm not concerned about Fred but given how warm the Gulf is we should keep watching just in case conditions line up and it tries something sneaky. I'll send out another update tomorrow or Saturday depending on how things evolve.

Have a good Friday and a great weekend.

Chris

PTC Six Designated in the Atlantic

August 9, 2021

Well it's not quite mid week but I wanted to provide a quick update on the tropics as you're likely to start seeing forecast cones on the news or internet. The NHC has designated one of the areas of interest in the tropics as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. This one did surprise me a little bit, I wasn't expecting development quite this soon.

It looks kind of scary with the forecast showing the potential for a storm in the Gulf by the weekend (could go somewhere else also...) but right now we're not looking at a major threat. It isn't a tropical cyclone yet but strengthening to tropical storm strength is expected in the short term. Once the storm clears Puerto Rico and Hispaniola some restrengthening (assuming it is weakened by the islands) is possible. Beyond that, long term prospects for a strong storm aren't that good. First, there will be at least some if not a lot of land interaction through the end of the week depending on the exact track. Second, PTC 6 has quite a bit of dry air on its north and west sides which could wrap into the center of the storm and disrupt it. Third, as it enters the Gulf wind shear is expected to increase and if that holds it will also limit intensification. Because of all of this the current model consensus is for limited development and the current forecast is for a tropical storm at the most. A stronger storm isn't impossible, but a really strong storm doesn't look very likely at this time.

That's it for tonight. If we get some significant forecast updates I'll let you know.

Chris

Activity Increasing in the Tropics

August 7, 2021

Activity in the tropical Atlantic is increasing as you can see in the NHC's 5-Day Outlook below. I also included the two-week Tropical Hazards Outlook for a longer term look. The NHC is currently watching three systems as they move west across the deep tropics with varying chances of development for each. If you stop reading here just know there's nothing to be concerned of yet but that we'll need to start keeping an eye on things and that it's a good idea to have a plan if you haven't done that yet.

At the moment conditions aren't the best for short-term development but they should improve over the next week to week and a half. The current run (12Z) of the GFS develops the middle system and takes it north towards the east coast but other than that there are no overwhelming signals for development. As these systems get farther west into the Caribbean starting mid-week through the weekend we'll need to pay attention how healthy they are and watch for development over an area spanning the central Caribbean through the Bahamas and eastern Gulf of Mexico. You can see this general pattern in the animations below. 

What you're looking at are ensemble model runs so for the Euro ensemble (ECMWF EPS) you're seeing 51 members and for the GFS ensemble (GEFS) you're seeing 31 members. Each member has slightly different conditions to give us an idea what the forecast spread is, including some crazy outliers. Don't pay attention to any particular solution. Ensembles aren't very useful for precise forecasts but they are great to see patterns especially at longer lead times. You'll notice we're not seeing a lot of development in any one area but there is definitely enough of a wide-spread signal to suggest that there is a moderate chance for development. It's too soon to have any good idea where a storm may track but this does tell us we need to keep a closer eye on things.

That's it for today, I'll probably send out another update around mid-week. Get your hurricane kits ready if you haven't and firm up your plans just in case.

In other news I am officially a meteorologist as of yesterday! All that really means is that I have completed the formal learning stage and have begun the stage of learning that will last the rest of my life. I can tell you that what I learned in school only scratches the surface!

In case you have forgotten or didn't know all of my emails and other resources can be found on my blog here: https://www.deepsouthwx.com/. You can also find me on Facebook and Twitter if you want to follow me there.

Have a great weekend!

Chris

Tropics Still Quiet, May Perk Up Next Week

August 1, 2021

The headline pretty much says it all. The tropical North Atlantic should remain quiet through this week with activity possibly picking up next week. There have been some healthy tropical waves coming off of Africa but conditions in the Atlantic have been too poor for anything to come of them. There are some models hinting that a wave coming off Africa on Thursday may try to develop next week as it moves west but right now I'd say the chances are low. I think we'll see increasing chances for activity once we're past mid-month and especially as we get close to the climatological peak on September 10th.

That's it for today, have a great week!

Chris

Tropics to Remain Quiet Through the End of the Month

July 18, 2021

Since Elsa's departure off the East Coast a week ago the tropics in the North Atlantic have been mostly quiet. Environmental conditions are such that chances for development should remain low through the end of the month if not longer. We may see activity pick up as we approach the middle of August but we'll have to wait and see.

That's it for today, have a great week!

Chris

Tropical Storm Elsa Update - July 3, 2021

July 3, 2021

Well it is early Saturday evening and we now have a pretty good idea what Elsa is going to do. After a brief run as a hurricane Elsa is now a tropical storm and has begun a turn towards the northwest. There is still some track uncertainty and the current forecast cone captures the possibilities well, although there is some wider spread still in some of the models. Regarding intensity, Elsa should remain a tropical storm through about 48 hours. After that decreasing land interaction and wind shear could allow some restrengthening, but I think category 1 strength would be the top end as things look now.

Some of us are on the fringe but I don't think anyone on the list is in the path of the storm unless you're traveling. No need to be overly concerned at this point but we should keep an eye out just in case something changes.

I'm going to watch how the forecast progresses but this will likely be my last update unless there is a significant change. If you happen to be closer to the storm and you have any questions let me know.

Have a great 4th of July!

Chris