Slight to Moderate Chance of Severe Weather Today

August 31, 2021

There is a slight to moderate chance of severe weather today across the FL Panhandle, a good portion of AL, and eastern TN. These risk areas correspond to a 5% and 2% tornado probability respectively. Storms may become severe this morning with the threat lasting through the afternoon, with perhaps a second round in the evening. The severe threat should move out of our area later this evening and overnight.

Have a great day.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - A Few Things to Watch

August 30, 2021

Ida is still bringing impacts to LA, MS, AL, and the western FL Panhandle. Now that the main threat is over it's time to look at the rest of the tropics.

The NHC's 5-Day Outlook below looks busy but the only area we're interested in at this time is the yellow area in the western Caribbean. I previously mentioned a few times that we'd need to watch this area again this week. Well it is here now but the good news is that models aren't anywhere near as excited about it as they were when Ida was forming. Out of the 51 EPS and 31 GEFS ensemble members only a few from each show development while the operational ECMWF and GFS show no development at all at this time. The Canadian model ensembles show a stronger signal but it isn't looked upon as seriously as the other models. Additionally, the majority of the genesis guidance show little to no development. It is something to watch but I'm not really concerned about it at this point.

TD Ten is a fish storm (it's going to stay out to sea and only bother the fishes if you're not familiar with that term). The area in the east Atlantic is a strong tropical wave that will move off the coast today. This has a high chance of development but it looks like it will probably recurve and become another fish storm, something else to watch in the short term.

That is all I'm watching for today. We're just a few days away from what is historically the peak of the season so we're likely not done just yet, but for the moment there are no immediate concerns. Hopefully the continuing impacts from Ida aren't too much of an issue for anyone. We'll see what daybreak reveals in Louisiana today. Those folks are going to need a lot of help so if you have the means consider providing support.

Have a great week.

Chris

Update on Ida's Severe Weather Threat

August 29, 2021

Ida is well on its way to be a historic event and it is currently on the cusp of being category 5 strength. If you didn't know, today is the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina...

Regarding impacts to the FL Panhandle, severe weather in the form of tornadoes and damaging winds are possible through Tuesday night with slight (yellow) and marginal (dark green) areas identified for days 1 and 2. There is currently a tornado watch for coastal areas from the Okaloosa/Walton County line to the west. The threat extends well up into Alabama on day 1 and into Tennessee on days 2 and 3.

Heavy rainfall amounts are also possible (see bottom map).

Current Weather Watch

Day 1 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook

3 Day Rain Totals (locally higher amounts possible)

That's it for today unless the severe threat increases.

Chris

Friday Morning Update on Tropical Storm Ida

August 27, 2021

Tropical Storm Ida continues its trek towards Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico beyond. The track forecast will continue to shift around a little but confidence is high that the core of the storm will avoid the FL Panhandle. Some impacts will continue well away from the point of landfall so be prepared if you're nearby. The current forecast is for Ida to be a category three storm at landfall Sunday afternoon, although the NHC cautioned that several models are calling for an even stronger storm. The day three severe weather outlook keeps the main tornado risk confined to the area near the point of landfall but we'll have to watch and see if this expands over the next two days.

This will be my last update on Ida unless there is a significant track change (very unlikely) or if the tornado risk creeps over to the east. This will unfortunately be a major event for the folks in Louisiana and Mississippi. I'll send out another update early next week on any other areas we may need to watch.

Have a great weekend.

Chris

Tropical Depression 9 Forms - August 26, 2021

August 26, 2021

Just a quick update letting you know that Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Caribbean, the forecast cone is below. Rapid intensification is expected once the storm is in the Gulf and a major hurricane at landfall is possible. The longer term track is still a bit uncertain and track shifts are expected.

More updates to follow as the forecast evolves.

Chris

Quick Thursday Update - Tropical Cyclone Expected in the Gulf This Weekend

August 26, 2021

I'm mostly going to talk about the short-term today. The NHC has been watching an area in the Caribbean for several days now. Designated Invest 99L, it has a 90% chance of development over the next 2 days as it moves northwest and we'll probably see it become a depression soon. Until a storm actually forms and models have a fix on where it is located the forecast is a bit uncertain. For now the model consensus takes the storm into Louisiana with quite a bit of spread to the east and west (see below). Everywhere from the central Texas coast to Alabama is on the table, it depends on how far to the north the center forms from its parent tropical wave and how the steering currents evolve over the next few days. Right now those of us in the Florida Panhandle need to watch but I'm not concerned at the moment as it looks like one of the main steering features should keep it to our west if (...if...) the forecast holds. We'll have more confidence in the forecast later tomorrow or Saturday.

This will likely be a fairly strong storm at landfall, the NHC is already urging people to be prepared, here is their statement this morning: 

The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern U.S. Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday and Monday.  However, uncertainty in the system's exact track and intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

Note that they mention our area. I think they're doing this to cover all bases at this point but we need to keep watching. Note also that landfall will be early next week with the potential for impacts beginning late this weekend. 

Looking a little longer-term, there are still some signals that we may see another storm try to develop in the same area early to mid next week. Nothing for sure at this point but something to watch once we get past this storm, which will be named Ida if something else out in the Atlantic doesn't form first.

That's all for today, I'll have another update this weekend.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - Sunday August 22nd

August 22, 2021

Let's take a look at what the tropics may have in store the next few weeks. There are no concerns in the short term as you can see on the NHC 5-Day Outlook. However, looking at the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook we may start to see activity pick up in the western Caribbean around mid-week lasting through at least the beginning of September. Eastern Atlantic development is also possible towards the end of the month.

Getting into the details a little, several tropical waves will move through the Caribbean over the next 10 days and conditions will be at least moderately favorable for development. Operational and ensemble models are showing a storm developing around the end of this week or weekend and making landfall anywhere from northern Mexico through Louisiana Monday or Tuesday the following week (August 30-31). At the same time this landfall is occurring (assuming there is a storm...) there is a signal in the GFS and GEFS for another storm developing in the same area but with a wider track spread that could put more of the central and eastern Gulf at risk over the Labor Day weekend. It should be noted that the ECMWF doesn't develop this second system at all and only a few of the 51 Euro ensemble members show development. During this same end of the month timeframe we'll need to watch the eastern Atlantic for development from a tropical wave coming off the African coast but it'll be a while before we're concerned about that if at all.

That's it for today. We're nearing the peak of the season so this increase in activity is expected. I'll send out another update between the middle or end of the week depending on what happens in the Caribbean.

Have a great week!

Chris