Winter Weather Advisory for Coastal AL and the Extreme Western FL Panhandle Tonight

January 20, 2022

The National Weather Service office in Mobile, AL has expanded its winter weather advisory to now include Escambia County in NW FL. Freezing rain is possible tonight through tomorrow morning which could cause hazardous driving conditions. FYI, freezing rain is when liquid water drops that are below freezing freeze instantly when they make contact with the surface, covering the surface with ice.

As of right now this area is the only one that is expected to have winter weather impacts through the next 24 hours or so. I'll let you know if that changes.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tonight Towards the Coast - Winter Weather to the North

January 15, 2022

A coastal low pressure with an attending cold front will move through the southeast today through tomorrow morning. There's a slight to marginal risk of severe storms this evening and overnight as the front passes. In the very small slight risk area from just east of Destin to east of Apalachicola there is a 5% chance of a tornado and a 15% damaging wind risk. Outside of this in the marginal risk area there is a 2% tornado chance and a 5% damaging wind risk. A squall line associated with the front looks to pass through along the coast from this late afternoon/evening through the overnight hours and some of the embedded and pre-frontal storms may be severe.

Winter weather with some light accumulation will be possible to the north of this low and on the back side of it after it passes from about Birmingham north through middle and eastern TN. Timing will be from Sunday morning through the evening and maybe overnight farther north. It's possible that there could be a few fluires farther south tomorrow morning, perhaps even towards the coast, if there's enough moisture aloft and the air lower down isn't too warm. Don't count on it, but it may be possible.

Birmingham Area

Huntsville Area

Chattanooga Area

That's it for today. The severe weather threat may be after dark so keep that in mind this evening. Up north the roads may be a little messy so be careful.

Have a good weekend.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Today from Birmingham South

January 9, 2022

Isolated severe storms will be possible today from Birmingham south to the coast from Pensacola east to Panama City. The Storm Prediction Center is expecting a marginal chance of severe weather for this area which coincides with a 2% chance of a tornado and 15% chance of damaging winds. There is an area in southwest central AL in a slight risk area with higher severe probabilities but I don't think that affects anyone on this list. Timing will be from about noon through mid evening with the threat ending earlier up north as a cold front pushes through.

Birmingham Area

Pensacola Area

Emerald Coast

I don't think this will be a significant event but I want you to know that a few severe storms are possible. Rain should clear by tomorrow morning bringing cooler weather (but not too cold this time). The next chance for rain looks to be Friday into Saturday.

Have a great week.

Chris

Slight Chance of Severe Weather Today Near The Coast, Winter Weather Possible from Birmingham North Tonight

January 2, 2022

Yesterday I mentioned that I thought most of today's severe weather would be to our east. While that may still be the case with the upgrade to a slight risk from the SPC I thought it'd be good to send out another quick update. There's also a chance of winter weather for parts north that I'll touch on.

The SPC has upgraded the severe risk to slight from about Navarre east through the Big Bend including southeast AL. There is a 5% chance of a tornado and a 15% chance of damaging winds in this area. A marginal risk extends west from Navarre through the AL Panhandle with a 2% chance of a tornado and 5% damaging wind risk. A 5% chance of hail exists for part of the region as well. I'm not too sure about the timing. A main line of storms should enter the Pensacola area between 12-1 p.m., maybe a little earlier, and move out of the Panama CIty area between 5-7 p.m. Ahead of this we may see storms from two different sources. Radar is showing storms forming along an outflow boundary from the main line moving south-southeast ahead of the line. Scattered showers are also starting to develop just north of the coast and in the next hour or two we may see these also start to stream off the Gulf. So expect storms to start in the next hour or two, isolated at first, and then increase in coverage from west to east starting in the late morning and lasting through the evening. There may be a few scattered light showers behind the main line but nothing severe.

Winter weather possible tonight!

For areas from just north of Birmingham up through middle and eastern TN winter precip is possible this evening and tonight. Areas near Birmingham will see little to no accumulation (maybe 0.5") and areas from Cullman north may see 1-2." Have fun!

Birmingham Area

Huntsville Area

Chattanooga through Knoxville

That's it for today. Again, expect the weather to clear and become colder today into tonight with no rain expected through at least Wednesday morning.

Have a great week.

Chris 

Severe Weather Still on Tap for Today and Tomorrow

January 1, 2022

Happy New Year to you all! Hopefully the potential for severe weather today isn't a harbinger for things to come...

Not too much has changed for today with the forecast since yesterday. There is still a 10% chance of tornadoes in northern AL and middle to eastern TN with significant tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) possible. The 30% damaging wind (I mistakenly said 15% yesterday...) and 15% hail risk remains as well. The enhanced risk area has shrunk a little and is now just north of the Birmingham metro area, although it should be noted that these boundaries, like any forecast, aren't perfect. You can see the extent of the slight and marginal risk areas along with the risk of each severe weather mode below. Severe storms are still possible both ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening and along the front later with the chance for pre-frontal storms now looking to be a little lower. This is good news because the prefrontal severe storms will have the potential to be the worst, especially with regards to stronger tornadoes. Graphics for each region have been included again to help with timing.

Day-1 Outlook

NWS Birmingham

NWS Huntsville

NWS Morristown

NWS Mobile

NWS Tallahassee

Not much has changed for tomorrow either along the coast with the SPC still indicating a marginal chance of severe weather. It could be that the greatest risk will occur later in the day as the sun does its work and provides heating but I think most of the weather may be moving east out of the area by then.

Day-2 Outlook

NWS Tallahassee

Unless the severe weather threat today or tomorrow changes significantly this will be the last update from me on this event. The weather will clear out and cool down quite a bit on Sunday. After that our next chance of rain looks to be Wednesday into Thursday, severe weather doesn't look very likely at this time.

Stay safe and have a great weekend.

Chris

Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for AL and TN Tomorrow, Severe Weather Also Possible Today and Sunday

December 31, 2021

There are a lot of details to cover with severe weather possible from today through Sunday for various parts of the region. I'll do my best to capture the big picture but it's best for you all to get the latest info from your local weather sources.

For today through Saturday morning northern AL and middle to eastern TN have a marginal risk for severe weather with all modes (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) possible, albeit at low probabilities. For northern AL any storms that can get going today have the potential to be severe so watch for anything that develops in the afternoon. While some of this development could occur in middle TN the greater threat there seems to be from storms that start to develop in the evening and overnight hours as tomorrow's system approaches from the west.

For Saturday through Sunday morning the SPC has placed northern AL and middle to eastern TN in an enhanced risk area for severe weather with surrounding areas in slight and marginal risk areas towards the coast as shown. A 10% chance of significant tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) and a 15% damaging wind risk are the main threats in the enhanced region although hail is possible as well. The regional four-panel image doesn't show the significant severe hatching so I've also included SPC's graphic. Scattered storms will move in from the west in late morning or early afternoon with a squall line following in the evening and overnight hours. Severe storms may occur both ahead of the squall line during the afternoon and evening and along the squall line later. The simulated radar image shows this progression from Saturday morning through midnight Sunday but note that the actual weather is likely to vary from this, hopefully we'll have better confidence tomorrow. I've also included graphics from the local weather service offices for more detail.

Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Showing the Location of the Significant Tornado Threat

ECMWF Simulated Radar (actual weather will be different)

Birmingham NWS Graphic

Huntsville NWS Graphic

Morristown NWS Graphics 

Saturday's weather will start approaching the coast early Sunday morning. We'll get more details tomorrow but it's possible we could have a few damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado or two as storms sweep through. It is possible that some northern areas may see some winter precip on the back side of the front Sunday night but regardless all of us will see a significant cool down and the coldest weather of the season so far.

Yep, maybe some frozen precip!

Again lots of details, make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts and for those in the enhanced area tomorrow that you have a shelter plan to include helmets if at all possible. The local weather sources will cover this in real-time so they're your best source once the weather gets close.

I wish you all an enjoyable New Year's Eve tonight! Stay safe.

Chris

Multiple Days of Severe Weather Possible Starting Today

December 29, 2021

Today starts a busy period with severe weather possible through Saturday or maybe Sunday. For today the SPC has added an enhanced (orange) risk area for northern AL and southern middle TN. This area coincides with a 10% chance of a tornado and is surrounded by a slight (yellow) risk area stretching into middle and southwestern AL and eastern TN. This area coincides with a 5% chance of a tornado and 15% chance of damaging winds. A hail risk extends throughout both areas. A marginal (dark green) risk area extends over the rest of AL and includes the FL Panhandle from the AL state line east to just about Panama City. Damaging winds (5% chance) is the main risk but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out away from the coast. For those near the edges of the enhanced risk area, be mindful that the area of worst weather may extend beyond this boundary a bit. Timing varies by region with locations in northwestern AL seeing severe weather initiate this afternoon with the threat moving to the south-southeast into the overnight and early morning hours. An exception is in the AL and western FL Panhandle which could see some stronger storms as early as this morning. Graphics for individual regions are provided to help with timing.

SPC Day 1 Four Panel

Northern AL

Eastern TN

Central AL

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Emerald Coast

Tomorrow

The severe threat continues tomorrow in the southeastern part of the region with a marginal risk coinciding with a 2% chance of a tornado and 5% damaging wind and hail chances. Towards the coast storms look to be more scattered but in middle AL they may be associated with a narrow squall line that may persist from the afternoon through the evening.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A marginal risk area is indicated for Day 3 (Friday) across northern AL and Eastern TN with a slight risk area creeping in from the northwest. Timing looks to be afternoon and evening but we'll see as the event gets closer. It's also possible we see an enhanced risk area added, but I think that would be to the northwest of our region, however this could be accompanied by a south-eastward expansion of the slight risk area.

A 15% chance of severe weather still exists for Saturday for much of the region. We'll know more in the next few days but it is possible that this event will bring the greatest severe weather threat this week. I think we'll see at least an enhanced risk area in the middle of this zone by the time we get into the day 1 or 2 outlooks if not tomorrow with the day 3 outlook. The worst weather may be during the day on Saturday with the threat moving southeast overnight into Sunday with perhaps a marginal risk near the coast on Sunday.

With multi-day events like this take it one day at a time and listen to your local weather forecasters. It's a good time to make sure you have multiple ways of getting alerts and think about where you will be each day when the worst weather is expected. During the last event near me my radio never alarmed for some reason but several apps on my phone did. 

That's it for today. If the risk for tomorrow stays at the marginal level I may not send out another update until Thursday.

Have a good day.

Chris