Severe Weather Possible Tonight Through Sunday

April 15, 2022

I hope everyone is enjoying the brief break in the weather, it's beautiful down here along the coast. A rainy/stormy weekend is in store and as I guessed, severe weather is in the forecast. I had thought we'd only see a chance tomorrow but it looks like different areas will have a risk for a few severe storms over the next three days.

For today there is a marginal risk of severe weather for most of northern AL and a part of middle TN with the main threats being damaging winds and hail, both with a 5% chance. Severe storm timing is overnight through early morning, with the threat persisting into the late morning from Birmingham south (will be covered in Day 2 below).

Day 1 Outlook (now through 7 a.m. Saturday)

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

For tomorrow there is a marginal risk from Birmingham south to the coast, again with a 5% chance of damaging winds and hail. Severe timing will be morning through afternoon for middle AL and a little later for areas near the coast.

Day 2 (7 a.m. Saturday through 7 a.m. Sunday)

Mobile-Pensacola

The possibility for severe weather will linger into Sunday as a front approaches and finally pushes out this stalled system that's been hanging around since mid-week. There's a marginal risk of severe weather from just south of Birmingham through the FL panhandle with a small slight risk region protruding into southwest AL and a tiny part of the western FL panhandle. There's not a lot of detail yet but it looks like damaging winds and hail are the main risks, with a 15% chance in the slight area and a 5% chance everywhere else. Severe storm timing looks to be Sunday afternoon through the evening.

Day 3 (7 a.m. Sunday through 7 a.m. Monday)

Birmingham Area

Mobile-Pensacola

Rain chances will increase later today with at least a chance of rain for the region through Monday morning. Estimated rain totals through Monday morning are below.

Regarding a few previous forecasts, the forecast for Tuesday the 5th was pretty much on target. There were numerous severe weather reports where the worst weather was expected, with perhaps the northern extent not being quite as far north as the forecast.

The severe forecast for April 6th didn't verify at all. That's the way it is with severe weather sometimes. Most of the area was in a slight risk area with a portion of eastern AL in an enhanced risk area, which is where the few storm reports were located.

For Wednesday the 13th the forecast was again better, although it looks like there was more activity in the western-middle portion of AL versus to the northwest where the higher risk area was initially. There wasn't a single report for Thursday the 14th, which isn't so much a bust given that the chance was fairly low. I have one correction from Thursday also. I mentioned that a tornado could not be ruled out but tornadoes were never in the forecast. I had a hunch on Wednesday that we'd see at least a small 2% tornado chance corridor on Thursday but that never happened.

That's it for today. I think we'll see some of these forecast regions evolve a bit but I don't think we'll see much increase in risk. So with that said I'm not going to send any more updates this weekend unless there's a big change. Have a great Easter weekend and stay safe. We might see the next chance of rain around Wednesday or Thursday but chances look low right now.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow and Thursday

April 12, 2022

Well, severe weather is again in the forecast but thankfully the risk isn't as high as we've seen over the past few weeks. A cold front will sweep through the area from mid-evening tomorrow through Thursday morning, at which point it will stall in a position from near the coast up through southeast AL and northwest Georgia. Severe weather is possible with the front first for AL, middle and eastern TN, and the western FL Panhandle as it enters northwestern AL in the mid-evening and moves through overnight and then for the central and eastern FL Panhandle later Thursday morning as the front continues south and east. As you can see in the Day 2 Outlook below the highest risk is for northwest AL with the risk decreasing going east-southeast. For Wednesday through early Thursday the main risk is damaging winds with an isolated tornado or two and hail also possible. For Thursday the main risk is damaging winds but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Not every area had timing graphics yet but I included what I could find.

Tomorrow Through Early Thursday

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

Mobile-Pensacola

Thursday After 7 a.m.

The stalled front will lift slowly north on Friday bringing messy weather for the weekend that might not clear until the next system pushes it out sometime Monday into Tuesday next week. It's not in the forecast yet but I wouldn't be surprised to see a severe weather risk area in the forecast for Saturday as we get closer.

That's it for this evening. Have a good rest of the week and stay safe.

Chris

Update on Severe Weather Chances for Today

April 6, 2022

While the severe weather forecast for today has expanded to the east it remains mostly the same for those in FL, AL, and TN. This will be a short update this morning but the maps below should tell you what you need to know. As always, stay aware of conditions in your area. The SPC still has an enhanced risk area but thankfully the tornado threat is only 5% in AL and TN, with the main threat being damaging winds in this area (30% chance) and maybe some hail. Timing still looks roughly the same, afternoon through the evening.

Chattanooga Area

Huntsville Area

Birmingham

Mobile-Pensacola

Panama City Area

That's it for today. The weekend still looks pretty nice with the next system moving in Monday into Tuesday. Have a good rest of the week.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday and Wednesday

April 4, 2022

Another two rounds of severe weather are possible this week although I don't think it'll be quite as bad as last week. On Tuesday (Day 2) the SPC has issued an enhanced risk of severe weather for AL from just south of Birmingham to the coast including a tiny sliver of NW FL. A slight risk extends just north of Birmingham and throughout the rest of the AL and FL panhandles not covered by the enhanced risk. There is a 10% chance of a tornado in the enhanced area, including a hatched portion representing significant tornadoes possible (EF2 or stronger) that I don't think will affect anyone on this list. The enhanced area also coincides with 30% and 15% damaging wind and hail risks respectively. The slight risk area has 5%/15%/5% tornado/wind/hail chances. A marginal risk area covers nearly the rest of AL north of Birmingham with associated risks as shown in the graphic.

These will be daytime storms for a change with timing from late morning through evening from west to east as shown in the timing graphics.

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

Mobile-Pensacola

Emerald Coast

On Wednesday (Day 3) more severe weather is possible from a separate system. Some of you that will miss out on the worst threat on Tuesday will get your chance on Wednesday. Since we're still a few days away from this I'm going to save the description and just let you look at the graphics as this will likely change at least a little bit. The severe threat on Wednesday will be a little later than the day before, expect things to ramp in the afternoon and extend into the evening.

Chattanooga Area

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

Mobile-Pensacola

Emerald Coast

In case you're curious, here are the rain totals for these two systems.

The severe weather event last Wednesday was quite busy as you can see on the storm report map below. At my location we had our third tornado warning of this season and it was the second time we had to take shelter in that many weeks. The storm that went near my house (it wasn't on the ground yet) went on to kill two people a few counties to the east.

Except for a chance of rain in TN Friday and Saturday the weather looks pretty nice for the rest of us through the weekend. The cool trend looks to be coming to an end soon at least for the short term. Stay safe the next few days, if a significant update comes out I'll let you know.

Chris

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Tomorrow Evening and Overnight

March 29, 2022

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a significant severe weather event for Alabama, middle Tennessee, and the western Florida Panhandle Wednesday evening into the early morning hours Thursday. To save a bunch of words I'll let you just look at the maps below. You'll notice that moderate and enhanced risk areas cover most of the area. The black hatched area on the tornado product indicates that EF2 or stronger tornadoes are possible. The hatched area on the wind product indicates winds 75 mph or higher are possible. There is a slight chance of hail for the area as well. It sounds like most of the severe weather will be from a squall line that will sweep through. However, it is possible that a few discrete storms may be able to develop out ahead of the squall line. Any isolated storms that do mature will likely be very severe.

Timing is shown in the NWS graphics for each region. There will be several updates during the day tomorrow and if something changes significantly I'll let you know. Otherwise, listen for watches and warnings in your area.

Day 2 Outlook

Huntsville

Birmingham

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Destin-Panama City Area

If this forecast verifies this will be the most significant severe weather event of the season so far. Make sure you have a plan and multiple ways of receiving alerts. If you have to take shelter, wear a helmet if you have one.

Stay safe.

Chris

 

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday and Wednesday

March 21, 2022

Tomorrow will bring our third round of severe weather into the area. The worst of it will be to our west but we may still see some impacts. For tomorrow the Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. tomorrow through 7 a.m. Wednesday) has most of western AL and the western FL Panhandle in a slight risk area. There is an enhanced risk area in western-most AL but I don't think anyone on this list will be impacted by that. In the slight risk area there is a 5% tornado chance, a 15% damaging wind chance, and a 5-15% chance of hail. A marginal risk area extends to the east and north through the central FL Panhandle and most of the rest of AL. This area has a 2% chance of a tornado, a 5% damaging wind chance, and a 5% or less chance of hail. Isolated storms will start developing late tomorrow morning near the coast to the west in the AL Panhandle area and will work their way north and east. These storms will persist into the mid-evening and the best chance of a tornado will be in one of these cells. In the mid afternoon a squall line will move into the area from the west and will sweep through the central FL Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Some storms that possibly may be severe will linger behind the front near the coast into the afternoon or early evening Wednesday with perhaps steady rain following through early Thursday. The Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Wednesday through 7 a.m. Thursday) has all of the FL Panhandle and SE AL in a  slight risk area for severe weather and we may see the risk increase a bit. Showers may persist through Thursday morning in the Panama City area but the severe threat should end on Wednesday.

Simulated radar from noon tomorrow through noon Wednesday is included to give you a rough idea on timing. As always these products are subject to error.

The Tallahassee NWS office didn't have a special graphic out yet but what they're saying regarding timing is included in my discussion above and as shown in the model radar.

Tomorrow through Wednesday morning

Wednesday morning through Thursday morning (again I think the threat will end later on Wednesday)

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Birmingham-Montgomery

Simulated Radar (12 p.m. Tuesday - 12 p.m. Wednesday, doesn't show the whole event)

We could see some strong storms overnight so make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts that will wake you up. Depending on what the setup looks like on Wednesday I may send another email tomorrow evening to update you on that, otherwise stay safe.

Below is the storm report map for last Friday March 18th. As you can see the weather was quite active in the FL Panhandle although not so much where the enhanced area was. Also there were only a few severe reports up in AL away from the coast and none in TN so that part of the forecast didn't verify.

That's it for today. Once this system moves through the weather looks fairly quiet through the start of next week.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow Through Early Saturday

March 17, 2022

As expected, severe weather is forecast for tomorrow (although a bit earlier than I originally thought), perhaps persisting through Saturday morning. For Friday the SPC has issued an enhanced risk for severe weather for an area near the coast from Mobile east through Walton County and a bit farther east away from the coast. There is a 10% chance of significant tornadoes in this area (EF2 or stronger, some could be long-tracked) and a 15% chance of damaging winds. Farther east through the FL Panhandle and north through AL and middle TN is an area of slight risk corresponding to a 5% tornado and 15% damaging wind risk. There is a 15% chance of hail in both of these areas as well. There is also a marginal risk area extending into eastern TN corresponding with a 2% tornado and 5% damaging wind risk. Timing is morning through mid-afternoon or evening, with effects lasting later to the east, see the regional graphics for details.

Mobile Area

Panama City Area

Birmingham

Huntsville

The threat will continue albeit to a lesser extent Saturday morning through the central FL Panhandle and southeast AL. I think this weather will move east out of the area by mid-morning or noon at the latest. An isolated tornado or two and damaging winds will be the main threats.

We're still looking at another system coming into the area Tuesday with impacts Tuesday and Wednesday, more details to come early next week.

Tuesday's (March 15th) severe weather forecast was a bust with no severe impacts reported, although calling a marginal risk a bust is probably a bit harsh.

I wanted to get an email out this evening since the event will be ongoing tomorrow morning. If the details change I'll let you know.

Have a good weekend.

Chris