Severe Weather Possible Wednesday through Overnight Thursday Next Week

January 31, 2020

The SPC has listed portions of the deep south in a 15% severe weather risk area for Wednesday morning through Friday morning. We wont have the details of the expect modes of severe weather (wind, hail, tornadoes) or their probabilities until Monday or Tuesday. I think it'll be mostly a wind event but we'll see. At this point just think ahead to your planned activities that day and how you would respond if the threat verifies. A 15% risk means that there is a 15% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any point in the colored area.

Have a great weekend, I'll send out more details as they become available.

Chris

Weather Outlook January 29 - February 5

January 28, 2020

Synopsis: expect generally wet weather and mild temps for the next week to 10 days.

The on again off again wet weather pattern will continue for a while, more so along the coast. Below is a satellite image of our next system now over the Southern Plains seen via the nighttime microphysics product. If you look close you can see fog near the rivers and some other areas in Mississippi and Alabama. You can learn about the product here.

Overnight light rain and maybe some snow will move into North Alabama and Tennessee. A little after daybreak rain and possibly a thunderstorm or two will move into the Panhandle and up through mid Alabama, leaving the area late Wednesday. Rainfall totals will be less than an inch for most of us.

After this we'll see a series of systems move through. Timing is subject to change but the following is the general pattern you can expect. The first system will be on Friday moving in during the morning and clearing by evening. The next will move in late Monday February 3rd or early Tuesday and clear out sometime Wednesday. Coastal areas may see yet another system around Thursday the 6th.

The GFS has been hinting at a winter storm for the southeast sometime between February 5-7. The GFS is bad about overdoing winter weather at the long end of its range especially in the southeast. It's something to watch but right now there really isn't any support from the other models. 

Temps will be seasonal or a little above average. Expect things to bounce around a bit as each system comes through but it doesn't look to get really cold. We may see a few days of warmer weather Sunday through Tuesday.

No severe weather is expected through the period.

Have a great week.

Chris

Weather Outlook - January 23-28 and 2020 Tropical Look-ahead

January 22, 2020

The summary for the coming week is that rain is moving in tomorrow with another chance Sunday for some of us. The rain tomorrow will bring a little warm air with near seasonable (cool) temps returning through the weekend and early next week.

A couple of interesting things have happened since my last outlook a week ago. One is that a lot of us got a bit more rain over the weekend than what was initially forecast, below are the rain totals from the 14th to 21st. It doesn't quite match the map I sent on the 15th...

The other thing is that the models completely flip-flopped on the duration of below average temps. Two days after my update on the 15th the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks changed to this (note these are no longer valid):

You might remember all of the blue in the east, well that's gone...I haven't had time to dig into why the sudden change, suffice to say the models performed poorly. I'm not going to bother showing you the current 6-10 or 8-14 day outlooks but you can see them on my blog here. Currently they're orange out to 14 days and blue into mid-February. I think most models support this but we'll see, I don't think they've been doing well out beyond 5-7 days recently.

Getting to our forecast for the next week, most of us have a good shot at seeing rain starting around tomorrow morning/mid-day as a warm front and then cold front moves in. It looks like rain will be out of the area sometime Friday afternoon. The northern areas have a shot at some snow as the cold front clears out, if so it wont be much. Temps will warm briefly tomorrow and Friday before dipping back down Friday night and through the weekend but it wont be as cold as it has been.

A coastal system may bring some rain to the coast, maybe even well up into Alabama, overnight Sunday into Monday. Temps look to be seasonable through mid-week. Late Tuesday or early Wednesday our next weather system will move in and we'll talk about that more as we get closer.

No significant severe weather is expected over the next week.

Let's talk tropical weather. Back before Christmas Colorado State published their first outlook for the 2020 hurricane season, you can read it here. Basically they're saying there's a 50/50 chance of an above/below average season, maybe leaning a bit towards the above average side, even though their report didn't really state that. There are many factors that influence the hurricane season and one of them is El Nino/La Nina or the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO is currently neutral, no El Nino or La Nina, and what it will do through hurricane season is unknown. To make matters worse, ENSO is notoriously difficult to predict during the spring so it may not be until the late spring or early summer before we have a better idea what the season may look like. Keeping in mind that the ENSO is only one piece of the puzzle, El Nino typically creates conditions that are hostile to tropical development whereas neutral or La Nina conditions can favor tropical development. Crown Weather sent out a very good subscriber only email on the subject this week. If you're interested I highly recommend you become a subscriber.

I hope you all have a good end of the week and a great weekend.

Chris

Weather Outlook - January 15-28

January 15, 2020

Those of you that prefer some cooler weather will get your wish, more on that below. But first the wet weather will continue with a front pushing through roughly from north to south tonight through late Thursday. Another front will move in from the west late on Friday and will clear the area overnight on Saturday. Rainfall totals wont be too excessive, northern areas may see around an inch with the rest of us below that.

Temps will bump down a little Thursday night and Friday behind the first front. Things will warm a tad Saturday as a warm front moves in ahead of the second cold front. Temps Sunday through next week will be close to what I stated on the last update. The Panhandle should see lows in the 30s and 40s, highs in the upper 40s warming to the upper 50s or low 60s. Mid-Alabama should see lows in the 30s, with a maybe few nights in the upper 20s and highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. North Alabama and Tennessee should see lows in the mid 20s or low 30s and highs in the upper 30s warming to the lower 50s. There are some signals that we all could see a night or two a little colder than what I just described. A few models are showing that the Panhandle could get below freezing, mid-Alabama may approach the mid 20s, and North Alabama and Tennessee could make a run at the upper teens. Below is what the lows may look like overnight on Tuesday. We'll have a better idea how cold it could get around Friday or Saturday.

The big story is that after Saturday it will be cool for a while. A general pattern is that when it is cool out west it is warm in the east and when it is warm out west it is cool in the east. The former pattern has been in place for a while now but it's about to switch. Right now I'm not seeing anything that suggests severe cold, but it will be cooler for sure. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks forecast below average temperatures in the east out to January 28th.

Furthermore our long term model, the CFS, is showing that the below average pattern may stick around through the end of February and maybe even a week or two into March.

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There is no significant severe weather threat for at least a week and after this weekend our next chance for significant precip will be towards next weekend. There's also a chance our northern areas may see some winter precip around Sunday the 26th so we'll have to watch for that.

I'll be posting a few more things to the blog (www.deepsouthwx.com) that I'm not going to email so if you're interested keep an eye out for my posts there. I'm also going to post the old Weather Nerd Corner emails I sent out in the past so that they're there for reference.

I hope you all have a good rest of the week and a great weekend.

Chris

Weather Outlook - January 12-25

January 11, 2020

The severe weather event is still ongoing but has moved out of our area, I hope you all made it through safely and without any damage. Below are the storms reports for today so far, quite an eventful day. I know of three fatalities in Alabama.

If you like wet weather you're in luck because that is the pattern at least through the end of the week. The front that just went through is going to stall and slowly lift north for a few days, keeping the area wet with a few thunderstorms. Around mid-week another front comes through followed by another front around the weekend. The heavier rain totals look to be from about Montgomery north as shown below, areas south towards the coast will stay a little dryer.

Temps will remain above average through the week. Those of you to the north will see a little cool down tonight and tomorrow but then it will warm back up on Monday. Along the coast we'll have a cool night tonight but that's it. Panhandle folks will see 60s and 70s all week with folks to the north 5-10 degrees cooler. Temps will bump down a little towards the weekend with our mid-week front but not by much.

After the 2nd front passes through next weekend we should cool back down below average for about a week or so, slowly warming to near average by the end of next week. So far I don't think we'll see any extreme cold but we'll see as we get closer. Looking at a long term ensemble the Panhandle could see lows in the 30s and 40s, highs in the 50s and low 60s. Mid-Alabama could see lows in the 30s, maybe a night or two in the 20s and highs in the mid 40s or low 50s. North Alabama and Tennessee could see lows in the mid 20s or low 30s and highs in the low to mid 40s. It doesn't look like there will be any frozen precip. We'll see if this holds.

I hope you have a great Sunday and a great start to your week. I'll send out another update around mid-week. Don't forget to check out the blog, www.deepsouthwx.com, and let me know if there's something else you'd like to see.

Chris

Severe Weather Likely Today - Saturday January 11, 2020

January 11, 2020

The system that will bring severe weather to us today got off to a good start yesterday in Oklahoma, East Texas, and Arkansas, and is now moving through Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. The storm report map from yesterday is below.

Take this event seriously. Below is the radar image at the time of this writing and some model simulations for noon and 6pm, this is what is heading our way. There are numerous tornado watches in effect and these will continue throughout the day. Remember that a watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes. If you receive an alert for a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning, that means a storm producing those conditions is likely occurring in your area. That is the time to take immediate shelter if you haven't already.

Below are the Day 1 Outlook products for our area. The first image also shows expected timing (hat tip to James Spann, @spann). This will be a fast moving event. Almost our entire area is covered by an Enhanced risk area, there is a 30% chance for severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Notice the tornado risk map, a 10% chance for a tornado is fairly significant. The black hatched area represents a 10% chance for a significant tornado (EF2 or greater). People in that area really need to watch anything that develops in front of the main line although tornadoes can be embedded within the line as well. The most likely damage any of us will experience is from wind from the main line. Hail should not be a major risk.

Again, take this event seriously, have a plan, and stay aware of the weather. Below are some sheltering guidelines.

Stay safe. I'll send another update if the risk significantly changes.

Chris

Severe Weather Update - January 9, 2020

Thursday January 9, 2020

As promised, the Day 3 Outlook has spread some more light on the severe weather we can expect on Saturday. As shown below most of our area is in an Enhanced (Orange) risk zone. Looking at the probabilistic product, this equates to a 30% probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point. Further, the black hatched area indicates a 10% chance of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. As a refresher, severe weather is one or more of the following: a tornado, damaging winds 58 mph or greater, 1" hail or larger. Significant severe weather is a tornado that produces EF2 or greater damage, winds 75 mph or greater, hail 2" or larger. This latter definition is what is represented by the hatched area.

The SPC doesn't go into a lot of details about specific threats until Day 1 which will be issued for us very early Saturday morning. At that time they will outline more specifically what kinds of severe weather to expect and how widespread it may be. It sounds like the main risk will be damaging winds along the main line with a few embedded tornadoes. If the ingredients remain in place there could be a significant tornado risk for storms out ahead of the main line. Below is a simulated radar image for noon Saturday showing the main line and storms out in front to give you an idea what that may look like. Below that shows potential wind guests. Note that this isn't a forecast. We need to wait until Friday or Saturday morning for specifics.

Lastly, this weather isn't too unusual for us, just stay aware and be prepared. Make sure you have a safe place nearby when the weather is near and that you have a way to receive alerts. I'll send out another update Saturday or maybe tomorrow if something changes.

As a side note this will be the first update posted to my blog, https://www.deepsouthwx.com/. In addition to these updates there is some other weather info on there that will grow with time. If there is anything you want to see let me know. Note that the subscribe button isn't working. If you subscribe you will get added to a list but for some reason Google Blogger isn't emailing new posts out to people, something in their system is broke. I'm going to try to find a workaround for that but for now I'll just keep sending emails.

Have a great end of the week.

Chris