Severe Weather Possible Along the Coast Tonight Into Tomorrow

October 27, 2021

The severe weather threat for tonight/tomorrow morning has increased a little with the Storm Prediction Center forecasting a slight (yellow) risk of severe weather for the western Florida Panhandle and a marginal risk farther east with the threat decreasing towards morning. Isolated tornadoes (5% chance) and damaging winds (15% chance) will be possible. Approximate timing and risk maps are below. A wind advisory and high surf advisory are also in effect.

Tonight through early a.m. tomorrow

Tomorrow morning

Timing for the Mobile, AL area

Timing from Destin through the Big Bend

Rain changes will taper off tomorrow morning with a slight chance of a shower lasting through Friday.

Stay safe and have a good rest of the week.

Chris 

Cool Weather on the Way, Tropical Threat Still Lingers

October 25, 2021

The weather will be somewhat active (stormy) this week but with that will come some cooler weather. A front will move through the southeast today and tonight bringing the first round of cooler air. On Wednesday a second system moves in bringing rain that may linger into Saturday for parts north and near the coast leaving some even cooler air in its wake for the weekend and beginning of November. Halloween looks to be pretty nice for the kiddies and you adults that are so inclined (no judgement). In the longer term we may see the next system move through from Tuesday through Thursday next week but I don't think we'll see as much precip.

There are some hints at severe weather near the area starting with Eastern Tennessee today and the western coastal areas Wednesday and Wednesday night, but nothing too concerning at this point.

Temperature outlooks from this weekend through November 7th are below.

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it but the same general signal for potential tropical activity in the Caribbean remains. We keep kicking the can down the road a week with the current potential for development being later this week into next week. I really don't see a threat here, especially for the US, but something to keep watching. This time of year the water is still plenty warm enough to support development but wind shear starts to become a big issue making development less likely.

That's it for today, have a good week.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - October 16, 2021

October 16, 2021

All you really need to know for today is on the map below...

I don't think there will be too many complaints about that. That being said, there continue to be model signals that tropical development may occur from midweek through the end of next week. The GEFS (GFS ensemble) has been consistent in that a few of its members continue to show tropical development in the western Caribbean around the 20th. Speaking just about the 20th the Euro ensemble doesn't show anything at all, the Canadian ensemble has a few members developing, and none of the major operational models (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian) show any development. There's a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean and I think a few of the GEFS and Canadian members stall it near the Yucatan Channel and allow it to develop. That said, we're talking about a few members out of over a hundred between the GEFS, EPS, and GEPS (Canadian ensemble). I'm only mentioning it because it has been a consistent signal but I think the probability of something happening is 5-10% or so.

Taking a look farther out and at the Global Tropical Hazards map below the better chance for development may be in the central to western Caribbean from next weekend through the following week. I'll give this a little more credibility because it's actually showing up on an outlook map but it also seems like we just keep kicking the can down the road every week without anything happening. I think what all of this is telling us is that the ingredients for development aren't quite all together but they've been close from time to time. The good news is that the window for development this season is starting to shut. I'm going out on a limb a little bit but I think if we don't see anything develop by the end of the month we're probably done for the year.

Up here in the mid-latitudes the cold front I mentioned last time is almost through the coastal areas this morning as you can see on the first map below (temps as of 9 a.m.). I was wrong about how cool it will get as it looks like we'll see some upper 40's almost to the FL/AL line and mid to low 40's from Birmingham north for a few nights. Temps will warm with the start of the work week. Expect nice weather through Wednesday morning with rain chances returning midweek through Friday with the arrival of another front. Even so, rainfall totals look to be fairly low across the whole southeast. We'll see some cooler air again with this next front but I'm not going to speculate how low just yet...(maybe a little cooler, we'll see).

9 a.m. Temps (10/16)

Tonight/Tomorrow Morning's Low

Sunday Night/Monday Morning's Low

That's it for today, get out and enjoy the nice weather!

Have a great weekend and a good week.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - October 11, 2021

October 11, 2021

The tropics continue to look relatively quiet this morning. You'll see on the 5-Day Outlook that there are a few areas being watched but I don't think these will be of any concern for the Gulf Coast. In the longer term there is still the possibility of tropical development from the western Caribbean up through the Gulf from mid next week to early the following week (October 20-25th). The model signals for this aren't very strong but they have been consistent.

The weather this week looks to be pretty nice. Northwest AL may see some rain tonight into tomorrow but most of the week looks clear otherwise. Once we get into Friday and Saturday rain chances will pick up with a passing front with the weather clearing by Sunday. Temps will continue to cool down as we head farther into fall but really cool weather seems to be elusive. We may see a bit of a cool down after the frontal passage this weekend but don't expect lows below 50 except for perhaps northern AL and TN which may see a night or two in the upper 40's.

Below are a few rainfall maps from our most recent rain event, I think there are some locally higher totals not captured in these. If you're curious, the bottom map shows our rainfall to date as a percent of normal. If the trend keeps up many of us will finish the year well above normal. I'm not sure about elsewhere but some areas along the coast are on pace to set all time records.

FL (most recent event):

AL (most recent event):

TN (most recent event):

SE (year to date % of normal):

That's it for today, fairly benign weather on tap for the near future.

Have a good week.

Chris

Marginal Risk of Severe Weather Today

October 6, 2021

Severe weather is ongoing near the coast this morning as we wake up and start our day. As I was writing this there was a brief tornado warning for an isolated portion of Walton County for a waterspout that was moving ashore.

Currently there are no other watches or warnings but strong storms are expected to continue along the coast for the next few hours with gusty winds and an isolated tornado or two.

Looking at the bigger picture, severe weather is possible over a large area of the southeast for the remainder of the day. The overall risk is low but all modes (strong winds, isolated tornadoes, and hail except near the coast) are possible. Timing for the greatest chance of severe storms favors the early and mid-afternoon hours for areas where the sun can break through and provide some heating ahead of storms that may form. The coast may clear after this line moves east this morning with more isolated storms forming later in the afternoon and evening. Expect another solid band to form to the west near midnight and move east through daybreak similar to this morning. For areas off the coast expect scattered storms to form after midday lasting through the evening with the most persistent weather located from Montgomery north into Tennessee. For you it may be mostly cleared up by Thursday morning with perhaps more weather later in the day on Thursday as the front sweeps through and finally gives us a break.

Not a very high risk but I wanted to give you all a heads up as a few days ago no severe weather was in the forecast.

Have a good day.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - October 4, 2021

October 4, 2021

As far as the Gulf of Mexico is concerned the tropics look to stay quiet through the end of the week. The model signals showing development in the Caribbean have backed way off to the point where it looks pretty unlikely. There is a weak signal in the ensemble models that something may try to develop in the western Caribbean from Thursday this week to Tuesday next week but I would say it's an outlier solution at this point. There's a slightly stronger signal in the eastern Caribbean towards the end of next week but that's too far out to be concerned with. So reiterating, there's nothing to be concerned about at all right now.

The weather here in the Southeast looks to stay stormy and wet through Thursday or Thursday night when a cold front finally pushes this mess out of here. Severe weather isn't likely but there could be some high rainfall amounts, especially near the coast. The weekend looks pretty nice but unfortunately the front won't bring cooler weather with it.

That's it for today. I'll keep watching the tropics and let you know if there's something to watch.

Have a good week.

Chris