Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Tomorrow Evening and Overnight

March 29, 2022

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a significant severe weather event for Alabama, middle Tennessee, and the western Florida Panhandle Wednesday evening into the early morning hours Thursday. To save a bunch of words I'll let you just look at the maps below. You'll notice that moderate and enhanced risk areas cover most of the area. The black hatched area on the tornado product indicates that EF2 or stronger tornadoes are possible. The hatched area on the wind product indicates winds 75 mph or higher are possible. There is a slight chance of hail for the area as well. It sounds like most of the severe weather will be from a squall line that will sweep through. However, it is possible that a few discrete storms may be able to develop out ahead of the squall line. Any isolated storms that do mature will likely be very severe.

Timing is shown in the NWS graphics for each region. There will be several updates during the day tomorrow and if something changes significantly I'll let you know. Otherwise, listen for watches and warnings in your area.

Day 2 Outlook

Huntsville

Birmingham

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Destin-Panama City Area

If this forecast verifies this will be the most significant severe weather event of the season so far. Make sure you have a plan and multiple ways of receiving alerts. If you have to take shelter, wear a helmet if you have one.

Stay safe.

Chris

 

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday and Wednesday

March 21, 2022

Tomorrow will bring our third round of severe weather into the area. The worst of it will be to our west but we may still see some impacts. For tomorrow the Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. tomorrow through 7 a.m. Wednesday) has most of western AL and the western FL Panhandle in a slight risk area. There is an enhanced risk area in western-most AL but I don't think anyone on this list will be impacted by that. In the slight risk area there is a 5% tornado chance, a 15% damaging wind chance, and a 5-15% chance of hail. A marginal risk area extends to the east and north through the central FL Panhandle and most of the rest of AL. This area has a 2% chance of a tornado, a 5% damaging wind chance, and a 5% or less chance of hail. Isolated storms will start developing late tomorrow morning near the coast to the west in the AL Panhandle area and will work their way north and east. These storms will persist into the mid-evening and the best chance of a tornado will be in one of these cells. In the mid afternoon a squall line will move into the area from the west and will sweep through the central FL Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Some storms that possibly may be severe will linger behind the front near the coast into the afternoon or early evening Wednesday with perhaps steady rain following through early Thursday. The Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Wednesday through 7 a.m. Thursday) has all of the FL Panhandle and SE AL in a  slight risk area for severe weather and we may see the risk increase a bit. Showers may persist through Thursday morning in the Panama City area but the severe threat should end on Wednesday.

Simulated radar from noon tomorrow through noon Wednesday is included to give you a rough idea on timing. As always these products are subject to error.

The Tallahassee NWS office didn't have a special graphic out yet but what they're saying regarding timing is included in my discussion above and as shown in the model radar.

Tomorrow through Wednesday morning

Wednesday morning through Thursday morning (again I think the threat will end later on Wednesday)

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Birmingham-Montgomery

Simulated Radar (12 p.m. Tuesday - 12 p.m. Wednesday, doesn't show the whole event)

We could see some strong storms overnight so make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts that will wake you up. Depending on what the setup looks like on Wednesday I may send another email tomorrow evening to update you on that, otherwise stay safe.

Below is the storm report map for last Friday March 18th. As you can see the weather was quite active in the FL Panhandle although not so much where the enhanced area was. Also there were only a few severe reports up in AL away from the coast and none in TN so that part of the forecast didn't verify.

That's it for today. Once this system moves through the weather looks fairly quiet through the start of next week.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow Through Early Saturday

March 17, 2022

As expected, severe weather is forecast for tomorrow (although a bit earlier than I originally thought), perhaps persisting through Saturday morning. For Friday the SPC has issued an enhanced risk for severe weather for an area near the coast from Mobile east through Walton County and a bit farther east away from the coast. There is a 10% chance of significant tornadoes in this area (EF2 or stronger, some could be long-tracked) and a 15% chance of damaging winds. Farther east through the FL Panhandle and north through AL and middle TN is an area of slight risk corresponding to a 5% tornado and 15% damaging wind risk. There is a 15% chance of hail in both of these areas as well. There is also a marginal risk area extending into eastern TN corresponding with a 2% tornado and 5% damaging wind risk. Timing is morning through mid-afternoon or evening, with effects lasting later to the east, see the regional graphics for details.

Mobile Area

Panama City Area

Birmingham

Huntsville

The threat will continue albeit to a lesser extent Saturday morning through the central FL Panhandle and southeast AL. I think this weather will move east out of the area by mid-morning or noon at the latest. An isolated tornado or two and damaging winds will be the main threats.

We're still looking at another system coming into the area Tuesday with impacts Tuesday and Wednesday, more details to come early next week.

Tuesday's (March 15th) severe weather forecast was a bust with no severe impacts reported, although calling a marginal risk a bust is probably a bit harsh.

I wanted to get an email out this evening since the event will be ongoing tomorrow morning. If the details change I'll let you know.

Have a good weekend.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Along the Coast Today With Two More Rounds Over The Next Week

March 15, 2022

Showers are moving off the Gulf this morning and a few may become severe this afternoon and evening. The Storm prediction Center has placed the coastal areas of AL and FL in a marginal risk area that corresponds with a 2% tornado chance and 5% damaging wind chance. Not a high risk overall but listen for watches and warnings in case severe storms occur in your area.

This current round of weather will move out of the area on Wednesday only to be followed by another system late Thursday or early Friday. We'll get another chance for severe weather not only along the coast again but a bit more inland as well. I think timing will be later in the day on Friday, maybe into the early hours Saturday but we'll see. All modes of severe weather (damaging winds, tornados, and hail) will be possible. We'll have more details in a few days.

Looking out a week from now we'll see a third round of severe weather. It's not too common for there to be enough confidence a week out that severe weather is going to occur so we need to watch this event more closely. It's too far away to talk much about details but tornadoes and damaging winds look possible with this third system. I would expect we'll see another risk area show up a bit more to the east for Wednesday into Thursday morning once the forecast period gets closer.

I don't have time to talk much about it but the last round of severe weather that was forecast for the 11th was a bit of a bust. No complaints that we didn't see a lot of bad weather but the forecast didn't verify well. The forecast for last Tuesday/Wednesday (the 8th and 9th) did verify with several tornadoes occuring in the FL Panhandle and southern AL.

That's it for today. Not a major threat today but be aware of changing weather and have a plan. We'll talk more about the next two systems once we have more details.

Have a good week.

Chris

Update on Tomorrow's Severe Weather Forecast, Winter WX Also Likely

March 10, 2022

I'm sending this out a little early because it looks like there will be two rounds of severe weather tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center is now forecasting a moderate risk of severe weather from the Panama City area east through the Big Bend and extending into SW Georgia. A larger surrounding area extending from the AL/MS line east to Jacksonville, FL and up through east-southeast AL and into South Carolina is in a slight risk area with a marginal risk area beyond that. In the moderate risk area there is a 10% chance of a tornado and 30% chance of damaging winds. In the slight risk area there is a 2-5% chance of a tornado (higher closer to the moderate area) and a 15% chance of damaging winds.

The timing information seems a bit inconsistent so I'd say there's some uncertainty. It looks like storms will start moving in off the Gulf after midnight tonight and spread inland throughout the afternoon and early evening. During the late evening to overnight and Saturday morning hours a cold front moves through bringing with it a second round of storms. Severe parameters will increase throughout the day with the highest severe threat occurring more with the second round than the first sometime between midnight Friday and Saturday morning. I don't think the animation below is accurate but it'll give you some idea how this will evolve.

Here are some graphics from the NWS offices providing a bit more info.

Tallahassee

Mobile

Birmingham

Temps turn cold after the front passes! We're looking at the mid to upper 20's nearly all the way to the coast now Saturday night with lows in the lower 20's and even mid teens in AL and TN. Before the cold sets in there is the possibility of some winter weather from the Birmingham area north, details below, there are some winter weather watches and advisories for these areas. Thankfully temps will warm back up quickly into next week.

Birmingham

Huntsville (not sure why there is no map...)

Chattanooga Area

That's it for this update. Make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts overnight if you're in the higher risk areas and stay safe.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Near the Coast Tonight, Tomorrow, and Friday; Maybe Some Winter WX to the North Friday

March 8, 2022

I figured we'd see a chance of severe weather again this week but I thought it'd be a bit later. I missed it when it first popped up this morning but the SPC is indicating a slight to marginal risk of severe weather for the western FL and AL panhandles from the AL/MS line east to about the Walton/Bay county line including adjacent areas away from the coast a bit. Conditions have changed such that there is an isolated tornado and damaging wind risk with storms that develop after midnight tonight. The Day 1 Outlook below runs through 6 a.m. CST tomorrow.

The threat will continue tomorrow through the central FL panhandle, adjacent areas, and an extensive part of the southeast and for our area will last from morning through about mid afternoon when it exits the Panama City area to the east. Again, an isolated tornado and damaging wind threat is expected.

After the severe weather expect rain to continue on and off Wednesday afternoon through Friday with the potential for severe weather to return near the coast late Friday in the area shown below, more details to come.

The precip should let off sometime Saturday morning, I think fairly early. Folks in northern AL and TN may see some slight winter precip later Friday into early Saturday morning but accumulation doesn't look significant at this time. Total precip and snow probabilities (subject to error) are below.

That's it for today. If the risk for tomorrow changes I'll let you know otherwise I'll send another update Friday morning about the risk later that day.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Today from Southern AL Through TN and Lots of Rain This Week

March 7, 2022

Today kicks off a week of busy weather with the possibility of severe storms from southern AL up through middle and eastern TN. The greatest risk for severe weather will be from a 15% damaging wind chance from Birmingham north-northeast into TN where the SPC is indicating a slight risk of severe storms, a 2% chance of a tornado exists in this area as well. To the south down towards the FL-AL line a marginal risk is indicated with a 5% chance of damaging winds.

For the rest of the week expect rainy weather at least on and off if not steady (especially towards the coast) as a series of systems moves through one after another, you can see how this may play out below. It looks like today will be the main severe weather threat but I wouldn't be surprised if a marginal or slight risk area pops up at some point. Heavy rain will be the main story with 4" expected through 5 days near the coast and lesser amounts to the north.

After the rain ends late Friday or early Saturday morning mostly dry weather and below average temps will return. Expect lows in the 20s at least for one night this weekend as far south as Montgomery if not a bit farther with freezing temps all the way to the coast, TN may see temps in the upper teens. Temps will warm up to about average for this time of year through the end of next week and the start of the following week when a more wet period may return.

Active weather is to be expected this time of year so just be prepared and understand how it may impact your plans. Thankfully we're not looking at anything with a high impact other than the heavy rainfall that may affect some people.

Have a good week.

Chris