Tropical Weather Update (Spoiler - No Real Concerns)

September 24, 2023

Synopsis: lots going on in the tropics, but most likely no threats to land. Philippe (the wave I mentioned on my last update) will curve out to sea or otherwise not be an issue. The yellow area in the southern Gulf is unlikely to develop (10% chance). The orange 'x' will probably curve out to sea behind Philippe if it develops. In the longer term, there may be another storm next week that develops close in to the Carolinas similar to Ophelia. Read on for more details. 

I really don't have that much to say in addition to the synopsis but here are a few more details. The cone for Philippe is below, it looks to curve safely out to sea (probably). Interestingly, the Euro has a solution where Philippe doesn't curve much, but instead continues west-northwest and then dissipates. There are some similar solutions in the ensembles, but either way it doesn't seem to be a threat to land. Regarding the Gulf, there is a low pressure area being watched (the yellow 'x') but I don't think we'll see much come of this. There may be some slow development over the next few days as it moves westward after which conditions are expected to become hostile. I'd be a bit surprised if it even becomes a tropical depression but we'll see. Back out in the Atlantic the orange 'x' to the southeast of Philippe is another tropical wave that has a pretty good shot at becoming our next tropical cyclone. I'm pretty confident this will also curve out to sea if it develops and it may interact somehow with Philippe (which generally is hostile for the system). Lastly, something the models have been hinting at next week is that we may see another storm spin up in the Atlantic off of the South Carolina or North Carolina coasts similar to Ophelia or maybe a bit more north off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. It's too soon to know for sure if anything will happen, but we usually don't have to be concerned with storms in that area.  

That's it for the tropics today. For the Southeast the rain chances have increased a bit for this week from about Montgomery south to the coast and for Eastern Tennessee with isolated showers elsewhere. Temps through the end of the week should be more or less near normal for this time of year with the exception that coastal areas may see below normal highs once the rainy weather sets in. After this week things look to dry out in the longer term through the first week of October with near normal temps near the coast and above normal temps inland into Alabama and Tennessee.

Have a great week!

Chris

Tropical Weather Update

September 21, 2023

TL;DR (too long; didn't read): a healthy tropical wave in the Atlantic (red 'x') needs to be watched to see how far west it will go before turning north. Models disagree right now if it will turn out to sea or bring impacts to land. It is something to watch but at this time I think it will likely curve north before it gets anywhere close threatening the Gulf Coast but it may end up being a threat to the Lesser Antilles, Caribbean, Bahamas, or the East Coast. We may also see a system spin up quickly off of the East Coast (orange 'x') but major impacts are not expected. Nigel is just doing his thing out there.

Now, the longer version. The tropics have remained busy since my last update two weeks ago with hurricanes Lee, Margot, and Nigel being tracked but thankfully not being significant threats to land. Today I want to make you aware of one system that we may need to watch more closely in about a week's time. In the 7 Day Outlook above the red 'x' in the Atlantic is a tropical wave that is expected to develop as it moves west. The NHC gives it a 20% chance of development over the next 2 days and a 70% chance through 7 days. On satellite it is already starting to look well organized and I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't become a tropical depression soon (despite the 20% chance in the short term). So far every storm forming in this region has curved off to the north before it has had a chance to approach the Caribbean or East Coast but that may not be the case here. The GFS and Euro are in two different camps with this system. The Euro has slower forward movement and slower development. The former helps this system get picked up sooner by the high pressure in the Atlantic and pulled north before it can impact the Lesser Antilles. The GFS however has faster development and faster forward speed which (with variation run to run) brings the system farther west and impacting land before starting the turn north. It's really too far out to say where this storm will ultimately go so it's something to watch. If the GFS ends up being correct we may see a storm threatening the islands next week, which also increases the chance it could be a threat to the East Coast or maybe (very unlikely at this point) the Gulf. Right now the chance of this is pretty low given the expected steering environment.

As for the Southeast, expect mostly dry weather in the near term if not longer, with a slight chance of rain early next week. The below average temps will end early next week with more seasonable (slightly warmer highs and lows) returning.

That's it for today, enjoy the Easter Egg (hint, click the link on the date at the top)!

Chris

Tropical Storm Lee Likely to Miss the Gulf, May Impact the East Coast

September 6, 2023

I wanted to send out a quick update on the tropics this morning. The tropical wave coming off of Africa that I mentioned on Friday is now Tropical Storm Lee. You're likely to see some mention of this in the news as Lee is forecast to become a category 4 storm in about 3 days. In fact it could even get to category 5 strength. The good news is that in the short term it looks like Lee will probably miss the islands to the north. For the long term track I feel pretty confident that Lee will stay out of the Gulf. Lee will be steered around the western edge of a high pressure and it is likely that it will make a turn to the northwest while it is still in the Atlantic. This is good news for us on the Gulf Coast but Lee could be a threat to the Bahamas or the East Coast late next week.

That's it for today. I was going to share some model plots but I don't think they add any value right now. As it is I don't have any concerns at this point but I'll keep watching it just in case...

"Squalls out on the gulf stream
Big storm commin' soon..."

Trying to Reason With Hurricane Season - Jimmy Buffett

Chris

Update on the Tropics and September Weather Update

September 1, 2023

Now that Idalia has moved on the tropics remain quite busy. Thankfully out of the six systems being watched only one is a potential threat, the orange area between Africa and the islands. This weekend a tropical wave will move off of the African coast and there is a 50% chance it will develop as it moves west. Based on what the models are showing I think it is pretty likely this will develop and get close to if not impact the Lesser Antilles in about 10 days. It is not known yet whether this will curve out to sea or stay at a lower latitude and traverse the Caribbean or the Straits of Florida. Right now the out to sea track seems to be favored but it is too early to tell. If it stays more to the south we'll have to start watching for a potential threat to the East Coast or maybe the Gulf Coast. We're 10-14 days or more away from being concerned, right now it is not even in the Atlantic so it is just something to watch.

Back on August 17th I mentioned that we may see some cooler weather (not as hot) once we're into September. Below is the Climate Prediction Center Outlook I was looking at. You can see it looked like we would be a little above average as far as temps and above average for precip. For the record, this no longer looks to be the case.

Below is the updated Outlook for September. You can see that warmer than normal temps have a higher probability now. Precip looks to be about normal for the month (not shown). Expect very warm weather through at least the middle of the month with temps "cooling" a bit (but still above average) for the rest of the month. The long term Outlook is forecasting above average temps through November, with above average precipitation. We'll see how that verifies.

That's it for today. In the short term expect stormy weather near the coast but by Monday we should have a nice (and warm) holiday.

Have a great Labor Day weekend!

Chris

Update on the Tropics and September Weather Update

September 1, 2023

Now that Idalia has moved on the tropics remain quite busy. Thankfully out of the six systems being watched only one is a potential threat, the orange area between Africa and the islands. This weekend a tropical wave will move off of the African coast and there is a 50% chance it will develop as it moves west. Based on what the models are showing I think it is pretty likely this will develop and get close to if not impact the Lesser Antilles in about 10 days. It is not known yet whether this will curve out to sea or stay at a lower latitude and traverse the Caribbean or the Straits of Florida. Right now the out to sea track seems to be favored but it is too early to tell. If it stays more to the south we'll have to start watching for a potential threat to the East Coast or maybe the Gulf Coast. We're 10-14 days or more away from being concerned, right now it is not even in the Atlantic so it is just something to watch.

Back on August 17th I mentioned that we may see some cooler weather (not as hot) once we're into September. Below is the Climate Prediction Center Outlook I was looking at. You can see it looked like we would be a little above average as far as temps and above average for precip. For the record, this no longer looks to be the case.

Below is the updated Outlook for September. You can see that warmer than normal temps have a higher probability now. Precip looks to be about normal for the month (not shown). Expect very warm weather through at least the middle of the month with temps "cooling" a bit (but still above average) for the rest of the month. The long term Outlook is forecasting above average temps through November, with above average precipitation. We'll see how that verifies.

That's it for today. In the short term expect stormy weather near the coast but by Monday we should have a nice (and warm) holiday.

Have a great Labor Day weekend!

Chris