Isolated Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow and Thursday for Northern Alabama and Tennessee

April 16, 2024

The SPC is forecasting a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe weather for northern Alabama and most of Tennessee on Wednesday and Thursday. For Wednesday the risk area is from just south of Birmingham up through central and eastern Tennessee. The risk area shrinks a bit Thursday and covers only the northernmost portion of northwest Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee. Wind and hail are the main threats (5% chance each). Rain will move into northwest Alabama and central Tennessee tomorrow morning and will spread to the east-southeast throughout the day, diminishing after dark. The main chance for a severe storm on Wednesday will be from late morning through the evening. On Thursday storms will pop up again around late morning and the chance for a severe storm may last a little longer until the early morning hours Friday.

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday)

Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday)

A front will slowly move through the region from Wednesday through the weekend, hopefully clearing by the start of next week. Rain chances will be confined to the northern part of the region through Thursday morning, at which time coastal areas will have a chance of rain as well. Rainfall totals will be relatively low across the region with the northern part of the region maybe exceeding a half inch (higher for those areas that get a strong storm). A few cool-ish days will follow next week, with above average temps returning by midweek.

Taking a look at the last severe event, the forecast was pretty good as you can see on the verification map below, if not offset to the south a bit. I had originally thought that the tornado forecast busted a bit, but I think 10 reports over an area that size is about right (subjectively).

I'm not expecting any major impacts from the weather this week, just be mindful that a few storms may be strong in the risk areas. The string of storm systems will continue for a bit longer but I think they are starting to shift to the north as we approach summer as we're seeing with this one.

Have a good rest of the week.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible or Even Likely Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night, Storms May Linger Until Thursday Morning for the Eastern Gulf Coast

April 9, 2024

We're in the peak of severe weather season and right on cue there may be some significant impacts tomorrow. The core threat area will be in southern Mississippi but significant risks extend to the east and northeast. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Moderate (level 4 out of 5) risk of severe weather tomorrow for southern Mississippi and a few counties in southwest Alabama. An Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk area extends to the east through the western Florida Panhandle and northeast to nearly Montgomery and Birmingham. A Slight risk area continues through most of the rest of Alabama and well into the central Florida Panhandle. In the Moderate risk area there is a 15% chance of a tornado, including EF2 or stronger tornadoes and a 45% chance of damaging winds that could be greater than 75 mph. There is a 10% chance of tornadoes in the Enhanced risk area with the black hatching indicating the possibility of EF2 or stronger tornadoes. Also in the Enhanced risk area is a 30% chance of damaging winds with a small portion of the black hatched area (75 mph or stronger winds possible) extending into the Enhanced region including the Mobile, AL area and a very small portion of the Florida Panhandle. The Slight risk includes a 5% chance of a tornado and a 15% chance of damaging winds. There is a 5% chance of hail throughout the Enhanced risk area and a portion of the Slight risk area. Graphics are below but severe weather timing looks to be from the late morning through the evening and overnight hours from west to east.

The severe threat may linger Thursday morning from the Panama City area to parts east. Farther east the risk will pick up later in the day on Thursday as daytime heating occurs, but for Panama City Thursday morning the risk is at the Marginal level at this time.

Day 2 (7 a.m. Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday) 

Mobile-Pensacola Area 

Montgomery-Birmingham 

Emerald Coast 

Day 3 (7 a.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday) 

If the forecast holds there could be some significant impacts tomorrow and tomorrow night especially for those in or close to the Moderate risk area (yours truly included...). If the forecast changes significantly I'll let you know but stay aware of watches and warnings in your area and tune in to local media for the most up to date info. Stay safe and make sure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings, especially if you may be impacted at night.

After the weather clears out Thursday I think we'll be rain free until early next week or longer and we'll also have three or four days of cool temps through the weekend.

Chris

Update - Severe Weather Risk Area Expanded to the Coast, Threat Increased

April 1, 2024

I apologize for the multiple emails. Had I thought the forecast would change this much I would have waited. I hesitated sending this update thinking that sending one tomorrow morning would have even better information (it will) but I wanted to get the word out early. Getting to it, the SPC has expanded the Enhanced and Slight risk areas for tomorrow and has increased the threat within these areas. The Enhanced risk area now covers northern Alabama down to the northern suburbs of Birmingham and most of the state of Tennessee save for the western most portion. A Slight risk area now extends all the way down to the coast covering the rest of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to just east of Tallahassee. The entire Enhanced region now has a 10% chance of seeing a tornado, with most/some of this area as shown in the black hatched areas at risk of significant severe weather including EF2 tornadoes or stronger and damaging winds 75mph or stronger. There is also a 30% chance of hail in the Enhanced risk area. In the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of damaging winds, and 15% chance of hail.

Timing details remain the same. Expect severe weather to be possible from the afternoon through the evening for TN and northern AL, from early evening to early morning for middle AL, and late evening through the early morning hours for southern AL and coastal areas.

Updated Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. tomorrow - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

That's it for now. Again, I apologize for the second email but this is a fairly significant change. If the forecast changes again tomorrow morning I'll let you know.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible to Likely Tomorrow for Middle AL North Through All of TN

April 1, 2024

I hope you all had a great Easter weekend. No April Fools' joke...the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting an Enhanced (orange, level 3 out of 5) risk of severe weather tomorrow for northern Alabama and central Tennessee with a Slight risk of severe weather south of this to middle Alabama and east and west of the Enhanced region in Tennessee covering nearly the whole state. Within the Enhanced region there is a small(ish) area with a 10% chance of a tornado. Otherwise in the Enhanced region there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 30% chance of damaging winds, and a 15% chance of hail. The 15% hail chance also covers most of the Slight region. Also in the Slight region there is a 2% chance of a tornado and a 15% chance of damaging winds. A Marginal risk area reaches down towards the Alabama coastal areas and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle with a 5% chance of damaging winds being the only threat at this time.

Severe weather timing is from late afternoon through the evening for northern Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee and from early evening through the late night hours for middle Alabama. Towards the coast storm timing looks to be late evening and overnight, but here I expect the severe threat to be minimal.

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

Huntsville Area

Eastern TN

Montgomery-Birmingham

There were a few reports of hail and damaging winds in the central Florida Panhandle on March 26th but other than that the storms weren't too bad. I expect tomorrow to be different. I don't think there will be a major outbreak but I do think there will be some impacts, especially in the Enhanced region. Stay aware of changing conditions and any changes to the forecast for your area.

After the front clears out on Wednesday we'll have clear weather through maybe early next week with about 5 days of spring-like below average temps. It looks like warmer weather is in store after that but we'll see if we get a few more rounds of cool air.

Stay safe and have a good week.

Chris