Severe Weather Possible Saturday Night Through Midday Sunday

December 9, 2023

A cold front will move through the Southeast tonight and tomorrow and along with it the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight (yellow, level 2) and Marginal (dark green, level 1) chance of severe weather. Damaging winds are the main threat with an isolated tornado also possible and maybe some hail in northwest Alabama. There's a chance of some showers and storms before the severe weather becomes possible with the severe threat picking up from the evening through overnight hours shifting to tomorrow morning or midday as the main line of storms moves from northwest to east-southeast overnight. Timing graphics for each area are shown below.

Day 1 Outlook (valid 7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Sunday)

Day 2 Outlook (valid 7 a.m. Sunday - 7 a.m. Monday)

Birmingham Area

Huntsville Area

Eastern TN

Mobile-Pensacola

Destin-Panama City Area

As with the other events we've had this year widespread impacts don't seem likely, but there is a chance especially later on Saturday in the Slight area that the environment for tornadoes may intensify a little more than the current forecast so keep that in mind.

Regarding the last event last weekend there were no severe weather reports for any of our areas.

Have a great weekend.

Chris

A Few Severe Storms Possible Friday and Saturday

November 30, 2023

Let's start with some good news: today is officially the last day of hurricane season!

Now let's talk about the next few days. It is going to be rainy and stormy starting tonight or tomorrow morning, lasting through Sunday or maybe even Monday as a series of weather systems pass through. For Friday there is a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather for parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle with a 2% chance of a tornado and 5% chance of damaging winds. Severe storm timing will likely be late morning or early afternoon through late Friday and early Saturday morning with the threat starting and ending earlier farther west. After a break Saturday morning the threat shifts to the east a bit as you can see in the Day 3 Outlook. Expect another round of potentially severe storms (isolated tornadoes and damaging winds) starting around midday Saturday lasting into the evening. The severe potential may be a little higher on Saturday so we may see a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) area issued tomorrow or Saturday morning for Saturday. If the risk is upgraded the tornado risk may increase to 5% and the damaging wind risk to maybe 15% which would equate to one or two more severe storms in a given area on Saturday compared to Friday.

Day 2 (7 a.m. Friday through 7 a.m. Saturday)

Day 3 (7 a.m. Saturday through 7 a.m. Sunday)

The rain will remain for Sunday at least if not into Monday near the coast but severe storms are not expected after Saturday. Three day rain totals should easily exceed 2" for most areas near the coast with 3-4" or more possible in some areas and totals closer to 1" up through Alabama and Tennessee.

Regarding the last severe weather event on the 21st there was only one severe weather report in our area and that was for a tornado near the FL/AL line north of Panama City. Hopefully we see about the same level of activity from this event.

Once the week starts expect dry weather maybe all the way into Friday or next weekend with mostly above average temps except for a few cooler days midweek.

Have a great weekend and stay safe.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tonight and Tomorrow

November 20, 2023

Well, we made it through another hurricane season! Other than Idalia, which thankfully made landfall in a relatively unpopulated area, there weren't any significant impacts anywhere else despite there being 19 named storms.

As we transition out of hurricane season we transition into severe weather season. This starts tonight with a cold front that will move through the area. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight risk (yellow area, risk category 2 out of 5) of severe weather tonight for most of the western portion of Alabama and a Marginal risk (dark green area, risk category 1 out of 5) extending into central Alabama and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle. For tomorrow the risk area moves eastward with the southeastern half of Alabama and all of the Florida Panhandle in a Marginal risk area. There is also a narrow Slight risk area covering parts of the Alabama and Florida Panhandles where some of the stronger storms from late tonight into early tomorrow morning may still be ongoing around daybreak Tuesday.

Damaging winds will be the main threat with an isolated tornado or two also possible with the risk of these a little higher in the Slight risk areas. Timing graphics are shown below.

Mobile-Pensacola Area (note only the Day 1 Risk through 7 a.m. tomorrow is shown)

Montgomery-Birmingham Area (tonight through early afternoon Tuesday)

Destin through Panama City (Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon)

That's it for today. I don't expect any widespread significant impacts to our area from this event. I'm mainly sending this update as a reminder that severe weather season is upon us so that we keep these hazards in mind as we progress through winter and spring. With that said this is a good time to think about your sheltering plans for severe weather. 

For the next 10-14 days expect the weather to be near or slightly cooler than normal for this time of year and also maybe a bit wetter than normal. The next weather system will come through Thursday and Friday, I don't expect any severe weather with this at this time, but coastal areas may see around a half inch of rain.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

Chris

Low Chance of Tropical Development in the Gulf This Week

October 10, 2023

The National Hurricane Center is watching an area in the southwestern Gulf for development. This area, designated Invest 93L, has a 30% chance of development over the next two days or so. A frontal system is expected to develop over the western Gulf tomorrow and this interaction will limit how strong 93L can get. At this point I'd be surprised if it even becomes a tropical depression but that is a possibility. Either way, expect windy and rainy weather Wednesday through early Friday along the northern Gulf Coast. Some localized flooding is possible but otherwise no impacts are expected. The system out in the East Atlantic (Invest 92L) is not expected to be a hazard to land.

Some of you probably don't need a reminder but today is the 5th anniversary of Hurricane Michael's landfall in the Mexico Beach and Panama City area in 2018. The hurricane season is starting to draw to a close this year and I'm cautiously optimistic that we will not see any major impacts from here on out. That isn't certain of course and we may need to watch the Caribbean for development during the last few weeks of the month.

We'll get another cold front this weekend and along with it another round of below average temps that may last all the way until the end of the following week (October 21st). Unfortunately it doesn't look we'll get a lot of rain from this front so the only real chance of breaking this dry spell will be from the tropical system that will bring maybe several inches of rain to the near coastal areas before the front moves through. It looks like a wetter pattern may return around the end of October into November. The El Nino pattern we are in is expected to bring a cool and wet winter but we'll have to wait and see if that comes to pass.

That's it for today. Hopefully we get some rain this week. Enjoy the cooler weather though, it has been a nice break from the above average temps we had this summer.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update (Spoiler - No Real Concerns)

September 24, 2023

Synopsis: lots going on in the tropics, but most likely no threats to land. Philippe (the wave I mentioned on my last update) will curve out to sea or otherwise not be an issue. The yellow area in the southern Gulf is unlikely to develop (10% chance). The orange 'x' will probably curve out to sea behind Philippe if it develops. In the longer term, there may be another storm next week that develops close in to the Carolinas similar to Ophelia. Read on for more details. 

I really don't have that much to say in addition to the synopsis but here are a few more details. The cone for Philippe is below, it looks to curve safely out to sea (probably). Interestingly, the Euro has a solution where Philippe doesn't curve much, but instead continues west-northwest and then dissipates. There are some similar solutions in the ensembles, but either way it doesn't seem to be a threat to land. Regarding the Gulf, there is a low pressure area being watched (the yellow 'x') but I don't think we'll see much come of this. There may be some slow development over the next few days as it moves westward after which conditions are expected to become hostile. I'd be a bit surprised if it even becomes a tropical depression but we'll see. Back out in the Atlantic the orange 'x' to the southeast of Philippe is another tropical wave that has a pretty good shot at becoming our next tropical cyclone. I'm pretty confident this will also curve out to sea if it develops and it may interact somehow with Philippe (which generally is hostile for the system). Lastly, something the models have been hinting at next week is that we may see another storm spin up in the Atlantic off of the South Carolina or North Carolina coasts similar to Ophelia or maybe a bit more north off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. It's too soon to know for sure if anything will happen, but we usually don't have to be concerned with storms in that area.  

That's it for the tropics today. For the Southeast the rain chances have increased a bit for this week from about Montgomery south to the coast and for Eastern Tennessee with isolated showers elsewhere. Temps through the end of the week should be more or less near normal for this time of year with the exception that coastal areas may see below normal highs once the rainy weather sets in. After this week things look to dry out in the longer term through the first week of October with near normal temps near the coast and above normal temps inland into Alabama and Tennessee.

Have a great week!

Chris

Tropical Weather Update

September 21, 2023

TL;DR (too long; didn't read): a healthy tropical wave in the Atlantic (red 'x') needs to be watched to see how far west it will go before turning north. Models disagree right now if it will turn out to sea or bring impacts to land. It is something to watch but at this time I think it will likely curve north before it gets anywhere close threatening the Gulf Coast but it may end up being a threat to the Lesser Antilles, Caribbean, Bahamas, or the East Coast. We may also see a system spin up quickly off of the East Coast (orange 'x') but major impacts are not expected. Nigel is just doing his thing out there.

Now, the longer version. The tropics have remained busy since my last update two weeks ago with hurricanes Lee, Margot, and Nigel being tracked but thankfully not being significant threats to land. Today I want to make you aware of one system that we may need to watch more closely in about a week's time. In the 7 Day Outlook above the red 'x' in the Atlantic is a tropical wave that is expected to develop as it moves west. The NHC gives it a 20% chance of development over the next 2 days and a 70% chance through 7 days. On satellite it is already starting to look well organized and I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't become a tropical depression soon (despite the 20% chance in the short term). So far every storm forming in this region has curved off to the north before it has had a chance to approach the Caribbean or East Coast but that may not be the case here. The GFS and Euro are in two different camps with this system. The Euro has slower forward movement and slower development. The former helps this system get picked up sooner by the high pressure in the Atlantic and pulled north before it can impact the Lesser Antilles. The GFS however has faster development and faster forward speed which (with variation run to run) brings the system farther west and impacting land before starting the turn north. It's really too far out to say where this storm will ultimately go so it's something to watch. If the GFS ends up being correct we may see a storm threatening the islands next week, which also increases the chance it could be a threat to the East Coast or maybe (very unlikely at this point) the Gulf. Right now the chance of this is pretty low given the expected steering environment.

As for the Southeast, expect mostly dry weather in the near term if not longer, with a slight chance of rain early next week. The below average temps will end early next week with more seasonable (slightly warmer highs and lows) returning.

That's it for today, enjoy the Easter Egg (hint, click the link on the date at the top)!

Chris

Tropical Storm Lee Likely to Miss the Gulf, May Impact the East Coast

September 6, 2023

I wanted to send out a quick update on the tropics this morning. The tropical wave coming off of Africa that I mentioned on Friday is now Tropical Storm Lee. You're likely to see some mention of this in the news as Lee is forecast to become a category 4 storm in about 3 days. In fact it could even get to category 5 strength. The good news is that in the short term it looks like Lee will probably miss the islands to the north. For the long term track I feel pretty confident that Lee will stay out of the Gulf. Lee will be steered around the western edge of a high pressure and it is likely that it will make a turn to the northwest while it is still in the Atlantic. This is good news for us on the Gulf Coast but Lee could be a threat to the Bahamas or the East Coast late next week.

That's it for today. I was going to share some model plots but I don't think they add any value right now. As it is I don't have any concerns at this point but I'll keep watching it just in case...

"Squalls out on the gulf stream
Big storm commin' soon..."

Trying to Reason With Hurricane Season - Jimmy Buffett

Chris