Update on the Friday Severe Weather Threat

January 11, 2024

There hasn't been much of a change regarding the severe weather forecast for tomorrow. The SPC is forecasting an Enhanced risk of severe weather for much of the central to southeastern portion of Alabama. A Slight risk area extends down through the coast and across much of Florida and also westward and northward across more of Alabama. A Marginal risk area covers the rest of the northern portion of Alabama and most of Tennessee. Within the Enhanced region there is a 10% chance of a tornado including the possibility of strong (EF2 or stronger) tornadoes. Also in the Enhanced region is a narrow corridor of 30% damaging wind probabilities with winds in excess of 75mph possible. For the rest of the Enhanced area and all of the Slight area there is a 15% chance of damaging winds. Also in the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado. A 15% hail risk area covers the Enhanced region and a large portion of the Slight risk area. In TN and northern AL the main threat will be damaging winds (5% chance).

Timing still looks about the same. Showers and storms will move in from the south and west in the morning spreading to the east and northeast throughout the day. Severe storms are possible from the morning through late afternoon or early evening, ending sooner for parts west.

Day 2 Outlook (6 a.m. Friday - 6 a.m. Saturday)

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

Mobile - Pensacola

Destin - Panama City

I don't think the weather will be quite as bad for folks along the coast as it was Tuesday morning. The more inland areas may experience some bad storms but it seems like there is some more uncertainty for this event on Friday, especially for areas on the western and southern periphery of the Enhanced risk area, than there was for Tuesday's event. For this event the greatest threat seems to be in Georgia through South Carolina. All the same don't let your guard down.

The Mobile and Tallahassee National Weather Service offices have released preliminary information from their damage surveys of Tuesday's storms. The Mobile office identified damage consistent with EF1 tornadoes in three different areas and damage from EF0 tornadoes in 3 areas and one area that likely experienced 100 mph wind gusts. The Tallahassee office has determined that the tornado that hit Panama City Beach was an EF3. This same storm spawned another EF2 tornado in the Lynn Haven and Deer Point area. Two other tornadoes, one an EF2 and the other an EF1 were also identified. There were numerous other reports of damage throughout the FL Panhandle and AL coastal areas.

I don't have any better information regarding the cold next week but I can tell you it's going to be cold! Local media outlets and official forecasts from the NWS will be the best resource for that but let me know if you have any questions.

Stay safe and have a good weekend.

Chris

More Severe Weather Possible on Friday - Main Threat is More Inland This Time

January 10, 2024

Unfortunately there ended up being significant damage from the severe storms on Monday and Tuesday. I know it is fatiguing, but we need to prepare for the possibility of more severe weather on Friday. This time the main focus looks to be inland a little bit which will give people on the coast somewhat of a break. Currently the SPC is indicating an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe weather for the eastern half of Alabama from about Birmingham south to the state line. Most of the Florida Panhandle and most of the rest of Alabama are in a Slight risk area (level 2 out of 5) with a Marginal risk area (level 1 out of 5) covering northern Alabama and Tennessee. We'll get better details on specific threats tomorrow but I expect damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes to be the main concerns. Severe storm timing looks to be from Friday morning through late Friday afternoon or early evening from west to east.

Day 3 Outlook (6 a.m. Friday - 6 a.m. Saturday)

Birmingham Area

Mobile - Pensacola

Destin - Panama City

I am hoping we don't have quite as impactful an event on Friday as we did yesterday but if you're in or near the Enhanced region please be prepared.

After this storm system on Friday passes through we will get another cold front around Monday or Tuesday. The good news is that I'm not seeing much in the way of a severe threat from this system. The bad news, unless you love the cold, is that this front is going to bring with it the coldest air of the season. I don't have solid details yet, but we may see lows in the 20s (maybe even colder?) for a night or two all the way down to the coast with lows in the teens to single digits up through AL and TN. Daytime highs will be cold as well. If you haven't done it yet, this weekend will be the time to prepare for a hard freeze.

6-10 Day Temp Outlook (15-19 January) - Probably of Temps Greater Than or Less Than Normal

That's it for today. I'll provide more details about Friday's severe weather risk tomorrow.

Chris

Update on Severe Weather Threat for Tomorrow Night and Tuesday Morning

January 7, 2024

Hi everyone, I hope you had a good weekend. We now have more details on the severe weather threat Monday night into Tuesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe weather for the Alabama and Florida Panhandles and adjacent inland areas with Slight and Marginal risk areas extending beyond these. For late Monday through daybreak Tuesday there is a 10% chance of a tornado, including EF2 or stronger tornadoes, a 30% chance of damaging winds, and a low hail chance in the Enhanced area with these probabilities decreasing for surrounding areas. Specific probabilities for areas that will be impacted after daybreak Tuesday have not been issued yet but I expect them to be similar. Two rounds of severe storms are possible. The first round may come from warm front storms streaming in off the Gulf late Monday and the second round will come later as a squall line moves through early Tuesday into Tuesday morning from west to east ahead of a cold front.

Day 2 Outlook (6 a.m. Monday - 6 a.m. Tuesday)

Day 3 Outlook (6 a.m. Tuesday - 6 a.m. Wednesday)

Mobile - Pensacola Area

Destin - Panama City Area

This could be a significant event for some areas near the coast. Since it will be an overnight or early morning event it is especially important to have a shelter plan in place ahead of time and multiple ways of receiving watches and warnings that will wake you up. In addition to the severe threat rainfall totals in the 2-3" range or greater are possible across the region so be aware of that as well.

I don't expect the threats or threat area to significantly change but if they do I'll let you know. Otherwise stay up to date with local media outlets for the latest information.

Stay safe.

Chris

Multiple Days of Severe Weather Near the Coast Starting Tonight

January 5, 2024

I hope you all had a great holiday season! The rain we had a few days ago kicked off an active period in our weather and was the first in a sequence of four (or more) systems that will move through the Southeast through the following weekend (and probably longer).

For the next two systems each one is going to be stronger than the last. First up is a system that will move through tonight into early Saturday and bring with it a Marginal (level 1 of 5) chance of severe weather including an isolated tornado or two (2% chance) and a 5% chance of damaging winds confined to the Alabama and Florida Panhandles. Timing graphics are shown below, but expect the possibility of severe storms to start in the late evening for the Mobile area with the risk moving into the overnight and morning hours for the Florida Panhandle.

Day 1 Outlook (through 7 a.m. tomorrow)

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Destin-Panama City

I don't expect any significant impacts from this first system but there could be some isolated areas that experience damaging winds and we may see a tornado or two across the region.

It's too early to talk specifics but the next system will come through on Monday and Tuesday with what may end up being a significant threat of severe weather again for the coastal areas and a little farther inland as well. The Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting this system as one to watch for several days now and that indicates relatively high confidence that significant impacts will be possible. We will have better information on Sunday and throughout the day Monday but for now it is good to start dusting off your severe weather plan. This will be an overnight event for some of us so make sure you have multiple ways of receiving watch and warning notifications. More to come on this.

Day 4 Outlook (7 a.m. Monday - 7 a.m. Tuesday)

Day 5 Outlook (7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

We have to go all the way back to the 9th and 10th of December for our last severe weather event. Storm reports for these days are below and I have to say this event was a little bit more active than I had expected.

December 9, 2023 Reports

December 10, 2023 Reports

On a personal note I want to let you all know that my family moved to the Mobile, AL area just a few days ago. Other than some additional content for the area near our new home expect no changes to the areas or types of weather events I have been covering.

That's it for today, you'll hear from me again on Sunday. Have a great weekend.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Saturday Night Through Midday Sunday

December 9, 2023

A cold front will move through the Southeast tonight and tomorrow and along with it the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight (yellow, level 2) and Marginal (dark green, level 1) chance of severe weather. Damaging winds are the main threat with an isolated tornado also possible and maybe some hail in northwest Alabama. There's a chance of some showers and storms before the severe weather becomes possible with the severe threat picking up from the evening through overnight hours shifting to tomorrow morning or midday as the main line of storms moves from northwest to east-southeast overnight. Timing graphics for each area are shown below.

Day 1 Outlook (valid 7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Sunday)

Day 2 Outlook (valid 7 a.m. Sunday - 7 a.m. Monday)

Birmingham Area

Huntsville Area

Eastern TN

Mobile-Pensacola

Destin-Panama City Area

As with the other events we've had this year widespread impacts don't seem likely, but there is a chance especially later on Saturday in the Slight area that the environment for tornadoes may intensify a little more than the current forecast so keep that in mind.

Regarding the last event last weekend there were no severe weather reports for any of our areas.

Have a great weekend.

Chris

A Few Severe Storms Possible Friday and Saturday

November 30, 2023

Let's start with some good news: today is officially the last day of hurricane season!

Now let's talk about the next few days. It is going to be rainy and stormy starting tonight or tomorrow morning, lasting through Sunday or maybe even Monday as a series of weather systems pass through. For Friday there is a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather for parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle with a 2% chance of a tornado and 5% chance of damaging winds. Severe storm timing will likely be late morning or early afternoon through late Friday and early Saturday morning with the threat starting and ending earlier farther west. After a break Saturday morning the threat shifts to the east a bit as you can see in the Day 3 Outlook. Expect another round of potentially severe storms (isolated tornadoes and damaging winds) starting around midday Saturday lasting into the evening. The severe potential may be a little higher on Saturday so we may see a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) area issued tomorrow or Saturday morning for Saturday. If the risk is upgraded the tornado risk may increase to 5% and the damaging wind risk to maybe 15% which would equate to one or two more severe storms in a given area on Saturday compared to Friday.

Day 2 (7 a.m. Friday through 7 a.m. Saturday)

Day 3 (7 a.m. Saturday through 7 a.m. Sunday)

The rain will remain for Sunday at least if not into Monday near the coast but severe storms are not expected after Saturday. Three day rain totals should easily exceed 2" for most areas near the coast with 3-4" or more possible in some areas and totals closer to 1" up through Alabama and Tennessee.

Regarding the last severe weather event on the 21st there was only one severe weather report in our area and that was for a tornado near the FL/AL line north of Panama City. Hopefully we see about the same level of activity from this event.

Once the week starts expect dry weather maybe all the way into Friday or next weekend with mostly above average temps except for a few cooler days midweek.

Have a great weekend and stay safe.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tonight and Tomorrow

November 20, 2023

Well, we made it through another hurricane season! Other than Idalia, which thankfully made landfall in a relatively unpopulated area, there weren't any significant impacts anywhere else despite there being 19 named storms.

As we transition out of hurricane season we transition into severe weather season. This starts tonight with a cold front that will move through the area. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight risk (yellow area, risk category 2 out of 5) of severe weather tonight for most of the western portion of Alabama and a Marginal risk (dark green area, risk category 1 out of 5) extending into central Alabama and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle. For tomorrow the risk area moves eastward with the southeastern half of Alabama and all of the Florida Panhandle in a Marginal risk area. There is also a narrow Slight risk area covering parts of the Alabama and Florida Panhandles where some of the stronger storms from late tonight into early tomorrow morning may still be ongoing around daybreak Tuesday.

Damaging winds will be the main threat with an isolated tornado or two also possible with the risk of these a little higher in the Slight risk areas. Timing graphics are shown below.

Mobile-Pensacola Area (note only the Day 1 Risk through 7 a.m. tomorrow is shown)

Montgomery-Birmingham Area (tonight through early afternoon Tuesday)

Destin through Panama City (Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon)

That's it for today. I don't expect any widespread significant impacts to our area from this event. I'm mainly sending this update as a reminder that severe weather season is upon us so that we keep these hazards in mind as we progress through winter and spring. With that said this is a good time to think about your sheltering plans for severe weather. 

For the next 10-14 days expect the weather to be near or slightly cooler than normal for this time of year and also maybe a bit wetter than normal. The next weather system will come through Thursday and Friday, I don't expect any severe weather with this at this time, but coastal areas may see around a half inch of rain.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

Chris