Update - Severe Weather Risk Area Expanded to the Coast, Threat Increased

April 1, 2024

I apologize for the multiple emails. Had I thought the forecast would change this much I would have waited. I hesitated sending this update thinking that sending one tomorrow morning would have even better information (it will) but I wanted to get the word out early. Getting to it, the SPC has expanded the Enhanced and Slight risk areas for tomorrow and has increased the threat within these areas. The Enhanced risk area now covers northern Alabama down to the northern suburbs of Birmingham and most of the state of Tennessee save for the western most portion. A Slight risk area now extends all the way down to the coast covering the rest of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to just east of Tallahassee. The entire Enhanced region now has a 10% chance of seeing a tornado, with most/some of this area as shown in the black hatched areas at risk of significant severe weather including EF2 tornadoes or stronger and damaging winds 75mph or stronger. There is also a 30% chance of hail in the Enhanced risk area. In the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of damaging winds, and 15% chance of hail.

Timing details remain the same. Expect severe weather to be possible from the afternoon through the evening for TN and northern AL, from early evening to early morning for middle AL, and late evening through the early morning hours for southern AL and coastal areas.

Updated Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. tomorrow - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

That's it for now. Again, I apologize for the second email but this is a fairly significant change. If the forecast changes again tomorrow morning I'll let you know.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible to Likely Tomorrow for Middle AL North Through All of TN

April 1, 2024

I hope you all had a great Easter weekend. No April Fools' joke...the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting an Enhanced (orange, level 3 out of 5) risk of severe weather tomorrow for northern Alabama and central Tennessee with a Slight risk of severe weather south of this to middle Alabama and east and west of the Enhanced region in Tennessee covering nearly the whole state. Within the Enhanced region there is a small(ish) area with a 10% chance of a tornado. Otherwise in the Enhanced region there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 30% chance of damaging winds, and a 15% chance of hail. The 15% hail chance also covers most of the Slight region. Also in the Slight region there is a 2% chance of a tornado and a 15% chance of damaging winds. A Marginal risk area reaches down towards the Alabama coastal areas and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle with a 5% chance of damaging winds being the only threat at this time.

Severe weather timing is from late afternoon through the evening for northern Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee and from early evening through the late night hours for middle Alabama. Towards the coast storm timing looks to be late evening and overnight, but here I expect the severe threat to be minimal.

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

Huntsville Area

Eastern TN

Montgomery-Birmingham

There were a few reports of hail and damaging winds in the central Florida Panhandle on March 26th but other than that the storms weren't too bad. I expect tomorrow to be different. I don't think there will be a major outbreak but I do think there will be some impacts, especially in the Enhanced region. Stay aware of changing conditions and any changes to the forecast for your area.

After the front clears out on Wednesday we'll have clear weather through maybe early next week with about 5 days of spring-like below average temps. It looks like warmer weather is in store after that but we'll see if we get a few more rounds of cool air.

Stay safe and have a good week.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tonight and Tomorrow

March 25, 2024

I don't know about you, but my bracket is busted! Bad. I don't have a good segue from sports to weather this morning so let's just get to it. The SPC is forecasting a Slight (yellow, level 2 of 5) risk of severe weather for a portion of western Alabama and a Marginal (dark green, level 1 out of 5) risk of severe weather for central/southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle tonight into tomorrow. In the Slight risk area there is a 2-5% chance of a tornado and a 15% chance of damaging winds. In the Marginal risk area there is a 2% chance of a tornado and 5% chance of damaging winds. Severe weather timing is from late tonight into the early morning hours for western Alabama and the Montgomery-Birmingham-Huntsville areas, late tonight and early morning for Mobile moving into the later morning possibly for Pensacola, and then late morning to the early afternoon for the Emerald Coast. Once the front gets to about the Panama City area it looks like it's going to stall bringing the possibility for additional showers or storms for the Walton County-Panama City areas and parts east depending on when and where it stalls. Showers may wane Tuesday evening only to resume Wednesday morning but they should clear out by Wednesday night or earlier. I don't think storms will be severe on Wednesday but if that changes I'll let you know.

Day 1 Outlook (7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Tuesday)

Montgomery-Birmingham Area Through Tomorrow Morning

Mobile-Pensacola-Destin Through Tomorrow Afternoon

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

Once the weather clears out Tuesday or Wednesday the rest of Holy Week looks good, including for Easter as of right now. Thankfully the highest severe threat and worst weather looks to stay to our west so I'm not expecting any major impacts for us. We'll see the next weather system during the first week of April.

Stay safe and Happy Easter.

Chris

Isolated Severe Storms Possible Today Along the Coast - Also, First Thoughts on Hurricane Season

March 22, 2024

The stormy pattern continues and along with it another, albeit relatively low, threat of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Marginal risk of severe weather for the Alabama coastal areas and the entire Florida Panhandle. Isolated tornadoes (2% chance), hail (5% chance), and damaging winds (5% chance) are all possible. Storms moving off of the Gulf in the afternoon and maybe into the early evening will have the greatest chance of being severe. Otherwise expect rainy weather starting later this morning and lasting through early tomorrow.

Day 1 Outlook (7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. tomorrow)

The last several severe weather events that were forecast didn't produce many storm reports Hopefully that trend continues today but I think that may change next week. Expect another weather system to move in late Monday. No specifics are available yet but I think we'll see a greater severe threat with it than we have lately. After that it is possible that the weather stays clear through Easter but we'll have to see. Temps look to stay mild through the end of the month if not into April a bit so it's nice we're getting more spring-like temps right now. Longer term it looks like the stormy weather will continue on and off through May but we'll see how that verifies.

It's too early to be concerned about the tropics but everything I'm reading is pointing to a very active season. If you've been putting off any longer term upgrades to protect your property this spring would be a good time to get that done. High activity doesn't always bring a lot of impacts though. Last year saw quite a lot of storms but the prevailing weather pattern kept them mostly away from land. It'll be a while before we see what the pattern is this year but maybe that trend will repeat for us. If the pattern favors tracks that bring more storms ashore though we may be in for an exhausting season. There's nothing we can do but prepare and then wait and watch but I wanted to keep you informed.

That's it for today. Stay safe and have a good weekend.

Chris

Marginal Chance of Severe Weather Today and Tonight Along the Immediate Coast

March 17, 2024

Happy St. Patrick's Day! In keeping with the "green" theme of the day, there is a Marginal (dark green area) risk of severe weather today along the immediate coastal areas of Alabama and Florida. Damaging winds are the only expected hazard in our area right now. Timing of severe storms will be from the afternoon through early morning hours.

Day 1 Outlook (valid 7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. tomorrow)

Other than some localized heavy rain, I expect minimal impacts from the storms today but a few areas could see some strong winds.

Stay safe and enjoy your Sunday.

Chris

Forecast Change - Slight Risk of Severe Weather Today for Southern AL and the FL Panhandle, Another Round Possible Sunday

March 15, 2024

Note made April 8th, 2024: While doing a review of my posts I noticed that the second map below (marked Day 3 Outlook) is incorrect. I accidentally included the Day 1 map twice.

The severe weather forecast has been evolving a bit since yesterday. The Day 2 forecast yesterday was not indicating any severe weather threat for the immediate coastal areas today but that has changed as of the 11:30 a.m. CDT update. The Storm Prediction Center is now forecasting a Slight risk of severe weather from just south of Montgomery to the coast for Alabama and the Florida Panhandle east just about to Panama City. A Marginal risk area extends a bit more to the east from the Slight risk area. The main threats in the Slight risk area look to be hail and damaging winds (both 15%) with an isolated tornado risk (2%). These risks are reduced to 5% respectively in the Marginal risk area with some of the tornado threat area extending into a portion of the Marginal risk area. Severe storm timing is this afternoon through the evening.

For Day 3 (Sunday) a Marginal risk of severe weather is forecast for the Alabama coast and western FL Panhandle. Right now it looks like the main risk will be damaging winds with severe storm timing in the evening. More details to come.

Day 1 (Today)

Day 3 (7 a.m. Sunday - 7 a.m. Monday)

That's it for this update. I'll provide more details for Sunday as we get closer, but right now the risk looks fairly low.

Chris

Marginal Chance of Severe Weather Tonight and Tomorrow

March 14, 2024

I almost didn't post this because the risk is low, but it nagged at me so here we are. The SPC is forecasting a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather overnight into tomorrow. Overnight and into the early morning the risk area is confined to northwest Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee with the risk area sliding to the southeast for Saturday. Right now only a tiny sliver of Northwest Florida is included tomorrow. Sometimes the risk areas are expanded or adjusted in later forecasts so if you're near one of the boundaries keep an eye out for changes for your area. For both time periods the main risk is damaging winds (5%) but there is small risk of hail (5%) and an isolated tornado risk (2%) for portions of the risk areas. Severe storm timing is in the overnight and early morning hours for people in the Day 1 risk area and from the morning through the evening for Day 2 (tomorrow) with the threat later in the period for people farther to the south and east.

Day 1 Outlook (7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Friday)

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Friday - 7 a.m. Saturday)

Other than the typical disruptions that stormy weather can bring I'm expecting minimal impacts. All the same, stay aware of changing weather conditions.

Regarding the severe weather forecast last Friday and Saturday (the 7th and 8th) there weren't many events reported. That said I would say the forecast was close to being accurate as there were 21 reports over a fairly large area and the overall risk was low. We had quarter size hail at our house Friday night but thankfully no damage and it didn't last long.

The front bringing the stormy weather will stall near the coast through Sunday. After it clears out we'll get another shot of cool and clear weather. Temps will be below normal for a few days and then return to near normal for the foreseeable future. Rain and storms may return towards the end of next week. After that we may see some more cool weather around the end of the month or first week of April.

Have a good weekend.

Chris