Tropical Weather Update - June 25, 2024

June 25, 2024

The tropics have quieted down a bit since Alberto impacted Mexico and then two other weak systems brought squally conditions again to Mexico and the northern Florida/southeast Georgia area respectively last week. Currently the National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave that may try to develop later this week as it nears the western Caribbean. Right now models aren't very bullish on this idea and it looks like anything that does develop would likely stay away from the US so no concerns.

Looking out to the 7-10 day range both the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (the Euro) are hinting that one or more tropical waves just coming off of the African coast may try to develop as they near the Lesser Antilles next week. You can see the ensemble model tracks below. This is 9 days out from midnight UTC last night. It may look like a lot but it is really not. The GFS ensemble is 31 separate models and you're seeing the GFS try to develop two different waves. So maybe 10 out 31 members show development, and of those only 1, or maybe 2, shows any significant development (the red track). The ECMWF ensemble is a 51 member model and even fewer members are showing development and all of them fairly weak at that. It is really too early in the season for this kind of development by several weeks anyway but we'll see. Something to watch but I don't think we need to be concerned about this. Most likely the islands will see some stormy weather for a few days but that is probably it. The only reason I'm showing you the models is so that you have a few more pictures to look at and so I have more to talk about. Notice also that neither show much development in the western Caribbean from the area the NHC has highlighted above.

Otherwise, coastal areas will have another chance of rain today with rain chances, albeit fairly low, expanding to the north tomorrow and then over a lot of the southeast the rest of the week. Typical weather for early to mid summer.

Have a good week.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - Friday June 14th

June 14, 2024

Here's a quick Friday morning update on the tropics. Looking at the 7 Day Outlook, we almost have a fruit salad out there, we just need another lemon or orange or maybe a strawberry. 

Invest 90L (yellow X) in the Atlantic is no concern. There were some thoughts that it could develop out there but that doesn't look to be the case. It did deliver a massive amount of rain to south Florida, which just proves again that you don't even need a named storm to have severe impacts. 

The orange spot in the Bay of Campeche is indicating that a disturbance may try to form in that area after the weekend. I think the chances of seeing a strong storm down there are low, but unfortunately Mexico and parts of Texas and maybe Louisiana may get a lot of rain as this system moves to the northwest. It is possible that a storm could spin up but I don't expect impacts east of Louisiana at this point.

We may need to keep watching the same general area (northwest and western Caribbean) as we get closer to next weekend and the last full week of June for another system to develop. By far there is nothing for certain but models have been consistent enough that it bears keep a close eye on things down there.

Otherwise it is going to be hot! We will have very warm weather today and Saturday, with the heat subsiding a bit on Sunday and into next week. Expect mostly dry weather through the weekend. Coastal areas will see rain chances return later on Sunday and into the start of the week with inland areas having the best chance of rain on Monday.

That's it for today, have a great weekend.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - A Few Things to Watch but No Concerns

June 11, 2024

A short update this morning. The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Gulf of Mexico for development. Technically it has a 20% chance of development in the next 7 days, but it is unlikely to do anything except bring rain (a lot of rain) to South Florida. Development chances may increase a bit once it enters the Atlantic but by then it will not be a concern to land.

There's also a possibility we may see development chances increase again this weekend or next week in the Gulf or northwestern Caribbean, but right now that is a low probability, just something a few models are sniffing out. I'll keep you posted.

That's it for today. Have a good rest of the week.

Chris

2024 Hurricane Season Outlook

May 28, 2024

I hope you all had a great holiday weekend and that the rain stayed away enough for you to enjoy it. The North Atlantic hurricane season begins this Saturday on June 1st and I wanted to give you an idea of what we may be in store for this season. To start with, you should prepare the same for every hurricane season. All it takes is one storm to impact you for it to be a busy season for you. That being said, if the early seasonal forecasts are correct we may be in for a rough time. If you stop reading here, do this one thing and watch this video from Dr. Levi Cowan. He does an excellent job explaining the possibilities for the coming season. I recommend subscribing to his channel as well. He doesn't produce too many videos but when he does they are usually something you want to pay attention to.

Now for the season outlook...The Barcelona Supercomputing Center (link) compiles the forecasts for over 20 different agencies and groups that provide seasonal hurricane forecasts. The current compilation is below.

You can see that most forecasts are in the red zone, showing a strong consensus that we can expect above normal activity this season. Note that the above is for hurricanes, not named storms, which could easily be double what is shown. One of the most well known seasonal forecasts is the one from Colorado State University (CSU). Their preseason forecast this year, which they describe as "extremely active," is the highest from them on record! They are forecasting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The 1991-2020 average for these is 14.4, 7.2, and 3.2 respectively. Along with the expectation of a high number of storms from CSU is higher than normal landfall probabilities for every part of the US. Their probabilities for at least one major hurricane making landfall is 42% for the Gulf Coast (Brownsville, TX to Cedar Key, FL), 34% for the East Coast (Cedar Key south to the Keys and then north up the East Coast), and 66% for the Caribbean (averages are 27%, 21%, and 47%). NOAA's forecast is similarly high if you'd like to look at it. While higher activity does not always mean a high number of landfalls, generally more storms equates to more landfalls. Early things I'm reading indicate storm formation locations and expected steering current patterns will favor quite a few landfalling storms but we'll have to wait and see what happens.  

So what is driving these high forecast numbers? One of the main factors is that we are transitioning from El Nino to neutral conditions with La Nina conditions expected later in the summer. A neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) or La Nina state favors tropical development due to lower wind shear in the Atlantic basin. One of the other factors (the primary factor according to CSU) is that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across almost the entire North Atlantic are well above normal and this is correlated with a greater number of storms as well as the potential for stronger storms. Below is the current SST anomaly map (difference from the 1981-2010 average). That is quite a bit of extra energy stored in the ocean compared to a normal season and with the forecast being for this anomaly to persist it is expected that there will be plenty of fuel for tropical cyclones.

So what might the season look like? Storms can and do form almost anywhere anytime, but here is the typical pattern. Here in late May and early-mid June we're in the part of the season where we may see homegrown storms form in the Caribbean, off the East Coast, or even in the Gulf from energy left over from a passing cold front or a Central American Gyre (CAG). There have been a few hints of a storm in the Caribbean or off the East Coast but no strong signals so far. Later in June and into July activity in the tropics tends to stay at a low level with maybe a storm or two forming in the Caribbean or Gulf. Activity starts to ramp up around the 1st of August as we get into the part of the season where storms start forming in the deep tropics from tropical waves moving off of Africa. These are the long track storms we sometimes watch for a week or more as they move across the Atlantic. This activity potentially continues a few months with the peak of the season coming on September 10th on average. During this time some tropical waves have to travel farther to find a favorable environment which leads to some storms forming closer in in the Caribbean or off the East Coast. After the September peak activity slowly decreases and storm formation shifts back to the Caribbean as we head into October and early November. From what I have read I think we'll see most of the activity during the normal peak lasting maybe later into the fall. For more details on seasonal norms with lots of maps and charts see this link.

Don't wait to prepare and think about how a storm may impact summer travel plans. If you need a refresher, below are a few good links on how to prepare. I'm far from an expert but I'm always willing to answer any questions or point you to a good resource.

https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/types-of-emergencies/hurricane.html

https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan

I'll probably send out tropical weather updates every two weeks or so and of course more frequently as warranted. I am way behind putting together a summary of our extended severe weather season, which I really hope has come to an end finally, but I'll do that soon.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible the Rest of Today for N AL and TN and Most of AL Tomorrow

Monday 26, 2024

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend. I'm little behind getting an update out. Strong storms, some possibly severe, should start showing up over central and eastern TN soon. These storms should clear off to the east in the late afternoon or early evening. A little later in the evening another round of storms will move in from the west and settle to the south-southeast towards the coast overnight and through tomorrow morning. It looks like this system may stall near the coast tomorrow, causing another round of showers tomorrow afternoon and evening. For the rest of today and overnight the SPC is forecasting an Enhanced risk of severe weather for northern AL and most of TN. The primary risk for central to eastern TN and north AL is damaging winds (30% chance) with a 5% chance of a tornado and 5-15% chance of hail. A Slight risk area extends south to Birmingham and includes a 15% chance of damaging winds, 2% chance of a tornado, and 5% chance of hail. A narrow marginal risk area extends south of Birmingham but not quite to Montgomery with lesser risks. For Monday there is a Slight risk of severe weather over most of AL. Damaging winds and hail are possible (5% chance) with a narrow 15% hail risk area across a portion of central and northern AL. A Marginal risk area extends into a portion of northwest Florida.

Day 1 Outlook (rest of today - 7 a.m. tomorrow)

Eastern TN (not shown, but there will be another round overnight)

Huntsville Overnight

Birmingham Area Overnight

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Monday - 7 a.m. Tuesday)

Birmingham Area Tomorrow

I was thinking we were going to stay mostly dry down towards the coast but it looks like we'll have a chance at some showers and storms. I think we'll have dry weather through Wednesday morning and then a chance of rain off and on the rest of the week.

Stay safe and enjoy the holiday.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible the Next 4 Days for Northern AL and TN

May 23, 2024

Short update today. It looks like the folks in the northern part of our region drew the short straw this time as severe weather is possible from today through Sunday. For the first three days at least (and as of now) the risk level is Marginal with wind and hail the main threats each day and with an isolated tornado threat tomorrow. We'll have to wait and see about Day 4/Sunday as the risk and threats may be a little higher that day. Severe timing looks to be from the late morning or afternoon today through the evening and overnight into Friday morning. There may be some isolated storms Friday afternoon and evening with another round of isolated storms Saturday morning. That's about as far as I can reliably see as far as timing goes but it's possible the next round comes through Saturday evening, lingering into the overnight hours into early Sunday. I don't think the overall threat will be that bad so unless something substantially changes this will probably be my only email on this, we'll see how the forecast for Sunday evolves though.

Day 1 (7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Friday)

Day 2 (7 a.m. Friday - 7 a.m. Saturday)

Day 3 (7 a.m. Saturday - 7 a.m. Sunday)

Day 4 (7 a.m. Sunday - 7 a.m. Monday)

I think folks near the coast will have much nicer weather with isolated showers and/or pop-up storms possible each day.

Right now the tropics look good. The UKMet released their seasonal forecast yesterday and NOAA should release theirs today. I hope to have a tropical weather update on what we can expect for the season sent out this weekend.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend and don't forget to take a moment to remember what it's all about, those that made the ultimate sacrifice for us all.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Early Friday through Saturday

May 16, 2024

It looks like our next storm system has been delayed by a day, I had previously thought it would arrive today but now it won't move into our area until the early morning hours tonight. Along with its arrival is another chance of severe weather. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight chance of severe weather for the southern third of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to about Panama City. A Marginal risk area extends to just north of Birmingham and east through the rest of the Panhandle. In the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of damaging winds, and a 5% chance of hail (15% chance in extreme southwestern Alabama). In the Marginal risk area there is a 2% chance of a tornado and a 5% chance of damaging winds and hail. Timing for the highest likelihood of severe weather seems to be from Friday afternoon through the evening. There will be a smaller chance between midnight tonight and tomorrow morning depending on how well the severe storms to our west can hold together overnight. There will also be another chance of severe weather Saturday morning through afternoon as this system exists to our east. Currently there is a Marginal risk of severe weather for Saturday, with damaging winds the most likely threat.

Heavy rain and flooding will be a risk for some areas as well through the weekend.

Day 1 Outlook (rest of today through 7 a.m. Friday)

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Friday - 7 a.m. Saturday)

Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Saturday - 7 a.m. Sunday)

After the current weather system leaves the area it looks like we'll have clear weather until about midweek. The extended spring we've been having looks to be over, expect temps to be at or above seasonal norms for the foreseeable future.

Below is the verification map for Monday's severe weather. It looks like the forecast was pretty good, especially for our area along the coast. There were some severe weather reports in northern AL and central TN on Tuesday as well (not shown).

I was going to write my first tropical weather update for the season this week, but I'm going to wait until NOAA releases its first seasonal hurricane forecast next week. The National Hurricane Center started issuing tropical weather outlooks yesterday and all is clear. Some East Pacific tropical activity is possible and that is always good to watch as it sometimes portends the future activity in the Caribbean. Right now there's nothing to be concerned about.

That's it for today. As always I'll let you know if there is a significant forecast change. I'm hoping that our severe weather season is coming to an end.

Have a good weekend.

Chris