Tropical Weather Update - May 30

May 30, 2023

It is time for the first tropical weather update of the 2023 season. The National Hurricane Center's (NHC) 7-Day Outlook shows an area in the Gulf of Mexico with a 20% chance of development through 7 days (0% through 2 days [edit: this should have been 10% through 2 days]). The system of concern is a disorganized group of showers and thunderstorms in the central Gulf that's expected to hang out for much of the week before moving off to the east this weekend. Conditions for development are "only marginally favorable" according to the NHC and in general computer models aren't showing much in the way of development in the near term. Water temps in the northeast Gulf aren't quite where you'd want them to be yet for rapid development and it looks like this disturbance will be battling wind shear and some dry air as well. I think development is unlikely at this point but it is something to watch. Most likely the main impacts will be windy and squally weather mostly for the Florida Peninsula but maybe for the Panhandle as well.

Since this is the first tropical update of the season let's take a quick look at some of the seasonal forecasts for this year. Colorado State's forecast, which has been out since mid April, calls for a slightly below average season (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes) due to the expected development of El Nino later in the summer. NOAA's forecast, which was issued last week, is similar but forecasts an average season (12-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 1-4 major hurricanes). I've seen a few other forecasts and all of them have been in the same ballpark. Seasonal forecasts are interesting but we should all prepare the same for every season. This is a good time to prepare a hurricane kit and think about what storm preparations you would need to make if one came your way and where you might go if you needed to evacuate.

Again I don't have any big concerns for this weather system right now but I'll let you know if that changes. Expect the weather to be warm with humidity returning after the great dry and cool weather we had the last few days.

Have a great rest of the week.

Chris

A Couple of Tornadoes Possible for Northern AL Today, Isolated Severe Storms Elsewhere

May 20, 2023

Our spring/early summer severe weather season is winding down. There have been several days over the past few weeks where our area has been under a low risk of severe weather but since it didn't involve the possibility of tornadoes I didn't think I needed to let you know about it. The risk for today is similar to those other days except there is a 2% chance of a tornado for the Birmingham and Huntsville areas. The risk is so low that only a few of the NWS offices even bothered creating their own graphic. Nonetheless, I thought it was worth sending a quick email. You can see that a Marginal risk of severe weather covers the entire state of Alabama, a small portion of Tennessee, and most of the western Florida Panhandle. As stated the 2% tornado risk remains confined to northern Alabama with a 5% damaging wind risk being the main risk over the rest of the area as well as a 5% hail risk away from the coast. Severe timing will start in the late morning for northwest Alabama and then later for areas to the southeast so that the Florida Panhandle won't see possible severe storms until the afternoon or late evening.

Birmingham Area

Panama City Area

The last severe weather post I wrote was way back on April 29th, below is how that forecast verified. Looking quickly I would have expected to see a few more reports of severe weather up in our area and several more overall so to me the forecast was just ok.

I'll get to the tropics in another post, but the National Hurricane Center started issuing 2-Day and 7-Day outlooks on May 15th. I'll go into the details later but it looks like a developing El Nino will keep a lid on things with an "average" season most likely with regards to overall activity.

That's it for today. Keep an eye out for storms if you have plans, otherwise enjoy the weekend. It looks like we may get a break in the daily rain showers around midweek but until then expect the early summer rainy pattern to continue.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Today from Montgomery South

April 29, 2023

We had nice weather yesterday after the storms on Thursday but today the storms return along with the chance for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight risk of severe weather for the Panama City area eastward with a Marginal risk area to the west and northwest to about Montgomery, AL. In the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 5% chance of hail, and a 15% chance of damaging winds. In the Marginal risk area there is a 2% chance of a tornado nearer to the coast and a 5% chance of hail and damaging winds over the whole area. The forecast today is complex and multiple rounds of storms are expect across the FL Panhandle/near coastal region. The first round is developing offshore now and will push in off the Gulf later this morning, first into the western Panhandle and then a bit later farther east. A second round is expected in the evening through the overnight hours west to east, with there being less certainty on the severe threat for these storms. It looks like the weather should be clear of the area by daybreak tomorrow.

Day 1 Outlook (7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Sunday)

Central Panhandle Area

Montgomery Area

After the storms and rain today and tonight the weather looks to stay nice with cool nights and warm days this week with maybe a chance of rain around the end of the week.

Below is the verification graphic for the severe weather on Thursday. I think the forecast did well and there were actually a few more tornado reports than I would have expected (I'm not sure how many could have been from the same tornado) and also quite a few hail reports buried in there. You can read about the storm reports for April 27th here.

That's it for today. The forecast today is complex and uncertain so keep an eye out for changing weather conditions, it wouldn't surprise me if some of the earlier storms are a little more severe than expected, especially in the western FL Panhandle.

Chris 

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow

April 26, 2023

We've had a break from the threat of severe weather now for almost two weeks but that ends tomorrow. The SPC is forecasting a Slight (yellow) risk of severe weather for southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle with a Marginal (dark green) risk from south Alabama north into parts of central and western Tennessee. As a refresher, a Slight risk is the second of five risk levels and a Marginal risk is the first (lowest) of the five levels. If you're curious you can read more here. There is a tornado risk mostly near the coast with a 5% chance of a tornado is the western Florida Panhandle and two or three counties deep into southern Alabama with a 2% chance of a tornado for the rest of the Panhandle and extending north to about Montgomery. Damaging winds and hail risks exist also as shown. Severe weather timing starts mid to late morning tomorrow for the western most counties with storms expected to impact locations to the east in the afternoon and evening and even after dark and into Friday morning for the central and eastern FL Panhandle.

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday)

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Destin-Panama City

Montgomery-Birmingham

As with most of the severe weather events we've had this year I don't expect any major impacts tomorrow but it's always good to know that some impacts are possible. The main impact is likely to be rainfall totals with several inches or more possible closer to the coast. Once the rain moves in tomorrow expect an active (i.e. rainy/stormy) weather pattern through Sunday or Sunday night, especially near the coast, with the exception of a break sometime Friday into maybe Saturday morning.

For those interested here is my post on how the last three or four severe weather forecasts did for our area: link (TL;DR, they were pretty good).

That's it for today. It's possible we may see another severe weather risk this weekend and if so I'll let you know. Have a great rest of the week and stay safe.

Chris

March 31 - April 16th 2023 Severe Weather Debrief

April 19, 2023

For this post I'm taking a look at the last four severe weather events in the Southeast. I usually try to do this for the previous forecast each time I post a new forecast, but I have gotten behind a bit.

March 31 - April 1st

Thankfully most of the bad weather for the 31st was out of our area. The Moderate risk area was expanded and then a High risk area was added later in the day (not shown). For the 1st southern Alabama and most of the Florida Panhandle was in a Slight or Marginal risk area as the storm system moved east. Originally the Day 2 Outlook for the 1st just had a Marginal risk but it was upgraded the day of. The forecast for the 31st was excellent I think. For the 1st I would have expected maybe one to two tornadoes and a few more wind reports but otherwise it was pretty good.

April 3rd

There's not much to say about the forecast for April 3rd. I would expect a few wind reports in the Marginal region but otherwise it was very good.

April 12 & 13

I thought the forecasts for the 12th and 13th verified well also. There was a 5% tornado risk on the 13th so I would have expected one or two tornado reports and maybe a few more wind reports. One thing that didn't materialize like I thought was the rainfall. It looked like we'd see an extended area of 1"+ rain totals near the coast but that didn't happen.

April 15 & 16

The forecast for the 15th was spot on. It is really neat how it captures that narrow band along the Florida Panhandle. There was a low tornado risk (2%) and we didn't see any of those but that doesn't take away from what was otherwise a great forecast in a complex environment with a good bit of uncertainty. The Day 2 Outlook for the 16th originally had  most of the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama in a Marginal risk area (for damaging winds only, not shown). This was dropped on the morning of which verified well.

That's it for this recap of the last four events. While these aren't my forecasts it is a good practice in forecasting to take a look at how things actually turned out. Sometimes my thoughts may be a bit unfair as I'm just looking at a graphic and making qualitative judgements without really digging into the "why" of what happened and pairing that with the stated uncertainty at the time the forecasts were made. Also, not having a tornado report in an area that only had a 2% risk and was relatively small is not a bust by any means yet sometimes I'll state that I would have expected to see one or two. That is just my point of view and not a good representation of the actual forecast skill. I also look to see how well distributed the reports are across the risk area. Again, seeing reports that don't cover the whole area isn't necessarily a bust as often there are intricacies of timing and environment that cause things to work out as they do.

Until next time,

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Near the Coast Later Today and Tomorrow

April 15, 2023

There are two rounds of severe weather possible for those of us near the coast today and tomorrow. It is a complex forecast for today and it's possible that we might not get any stormy weather at all. A line of storms currently (as of Saturday morning) located over western Louisiana is forecast to continue moving quickly east into the Florida Panhandle this afternoon. This line of storms may be mostly or completely over the Gulf by the time it reaches us or it may extend inland a bit. In case the storms do stay over land farther east the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Marginal risk of severe weather with damaging winds the main threat but with an isolated tornado and hail also possible. A second round of storms associated with a passing cold front is also possible later tonight into tomorrow morning. We also may not see much in the way of rain as this passes through, but we could see some stormy weather. The graphic from the Tallahassee NWS office confuses me somewhat by mentioning storms lasting through Sunday evening. While a stray shower or two does look possible tomorrow afternoon it looks to me like most of the weather will be well to our east or leaving the area by late morning. That being said, they are the experts and I am not.

If I have not mentioned it before, the valid times shown for the Convective (severe weather) Outlooks are always done in 24 hours intervals. That does not mean weather or severe weather is expected during that entire time, it is just the outlook for severe weather for that 24 hour period.

Day 1 (7 a.m. Saturday - 7 a.m. Sunday)

Day 2 (7 a.m. Sunday - 7 a.m. Monday)

Mobile - Pensacola Area

Destin - Panama City Area

Have a good weekend and stay safe. There's a bit of uncertainty for both days so we could see two strong rounds of storms or nearly nothing for both rounds, we'll have to wait and see. After the cold front clears the area on Sunday it looks like we'll have nice weather through mid week if not longer. I'm behind debriefing the last several forecasts, I'll get to that next time.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow and Thursday Mostly Near the Coast

April 11, 2023

I almost didn't post about this because the probability is pretty low, but there is a chance of severe weather tomorrow along the coast and then along the coast and a bit more inland again on Thursday. A low pressure system is currently forming in the northern Gulf off of Louisiana and there may be a few severe storms associated with it as it moves to the northeast over the next two days. The current forecast risk for tomorrow is Marginal along the immediate coastal areas with a 2% chance of a tornado and 5% chance of damaging winds. We will not have details for the risk on Thursday until tomorrow but it's looking like the risk will be about the same but extending well inland into southeast Alabama. The main impact is likely to be from rain with some coastal areas maybe seeing as much as 3 inches.

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. tomorrow - 7 a.m. Thursday)

Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday)

Estimated rainfall through Friday morning

Overall I don't expect this to be a high impact event but I wanted to make you aware that a few severe storms are possible. It looks like the rain will taper off late Thursday into Friday only to see it return on Saturday.

Stay safe.

Chris