Marginal Chance of Severe Weather Along the Coast Today and Tonight

January 29, 2023

I hope everybody is enjoying the weekend. We've been in an active weather period lately and again there's a chance of severe weather in our area. For today the risk is confined near the coast with a marginal risk of severe weather for the Alabama and western Florida Panhandles including inland areas adjacent to the coast. The hazards are a 2% chance of a tornado and a 5% chance of damaging winds. While these are fairly low probabilities overall the last time they were this low and I didn't write about it there was a tornado along the beach not far from me that damaged several houses. Severe weather timing looks to be from early afternoon through the evening. The Day 1 Outlook map and timing graphics are shown below.

Day 1 Outlook (through 7 a.m. tomorrow)

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Destin-Panama City Area

Some areas could see a good bit of rain from this system, rainfall totals through the next two days are shown below.

This system will barely clear out of the area before the next one arrives by Tuesday morning for folks up north with more rain and stormy weather lingering until Friday.

For those interested here is a short write up I did on how the last several severe weather events verified: https://www.deepsouthwx.com/2023/01/last-four-severe-weather-events.html

Stay safe and have a good week.

Chris

Last Four Severe Weather Events Forecast Validation (12, 18, 21-22, & 24-25 January 2023)

 January 29, 2023

I was in the habit of including the forecast validation for the previous severe weather event each time I sent an update on the forecast for the latest system. That is until recently so this post serves to catch me back up for the last four events on January 12th, 18th, 21-22nd, and 24-25th. The 21-22nd event I didn't write an update for because the probability of severe weather was low and I try not to make more posts than needed less what I send out starts to get relegated to spam like so much other noise we receive daily. Interestingly there were impacts from severe weather both days including damage from a tornado along the beach not too far from where I live. It is for this reason that I will be sending out an update for today's forecast (also "only" a marginal risk) as soon as I'm done with this.

For the event on the 12th the Day 2 Outlook that I posted on the 11th was forecasting a slight level risk. By the morning of things had changed such that an enhanced risk forecast was warranted and as you can see below there was a fairly widespread outbreak of severe weather that day that unfortunately resulted in several fatalities.

The event on the 18th was forecast to have more of an impact to our west with a marginal risk area covering part of the state of Alabama. I would say that this forecast busted a little with most of the reports limited to a small area in the slight risk area and only 1 in the marginal risk area. Forecasting severe weather is difficult and the success or failure (bad word choices for both) often depends on subtleties in the atmosphere that are impossible to predict for certain. The folks at the SPC do a great job keeping us safe.

The event on the 21st and 22nd was the one that I didn't make a post about because I didn't think the risk was high enough to warrant it as mentioned above. Although there wasn't a widespread outbreak there were enough reports on both days (with the one tornado not far from where I live on the 21st counting as "enough" in my book) that looking back I should have wrote about it. Anyhow, verification maps for both days are below.

The event on the 24th and 25th didn't quite meet the expectations of the forecast especially for the region between New Orleans and Destin. Although the forecast hinged on whether or not sufficient instability for tornadoes would be present the expectation that there would be several bad (i.e. tornadic) storms in the Mobile-Pensacola region didn't materialize. At that point I thought the rest of the forecast for locations farther east would be a bust so it was interesting to see tornadoes impact eastern Walton County and the Panama City area early on the 25th. Uncertainty was high for this event and stated clearly in the forecast. Had more instability been present this would have been much more impactful.

This catches me up on verifications for the last four events. Thank you for reading, I hope you find it interesting.

Chris

Update on Severe Weather Threat for Tonight and Tomorrow

January 24, 2023

There have been a couple of changes to the forecast for tonight and tomorrow that I want you to know about. For tonight into early tomorrow the enhanced risk area has expanded to the east and now includes most of Walton County. The entire enhanced risk area includes a 10% chance of tornadoes with the black hatching indicating significant severe weather possible which is EF2 tornadoes or stronger. The enhanced area also includes a 30% chance of damaging winds and a 5% chance of hail. To the east and north the slight risk area includes a 5% chance of a tornado and 15% chance of damaging winds. Another change (or I just missed it yesterday, I'm not sure which) is that the timing looks a bit later than I was thinking. It looks like severe weather will not start to impact the western most counties in the Panhandle until around midnight spreading into Walton and Bay counties between 3-6 a.m. Reading the forecast discussions it remains to be seen how widespread the severe weather will be tonight. The cool air in place from the last cold front has the potential to keep the lid on things so to speak which would minimize the tornado threat (but not eliminate it) and make this more of a damaging wind event. However, if enough warm and moist Gulf air can be pulled north ahead of the storms we could see a fairly significant outbreak of severe weather with tornadoes being the greater threat. Which of these scenarios will happen will probably not be known until shortly before the weather moves through.

The last change to mention is that the severe weather risk has been increased to slight for Wednesday morning and afternoon as this storm system continues east across the Panhandle and the rest of the Southeast.

Day 1 Outlook (7 a.m. today through 7 a.m. Wednesday)

Day 2 Outlook ( 7 a.m. Wednesday through 7 a.m. Thursday)

Mobile-Pensacola Area (graphic a bit outdated)

Destin-Panama City

There will be time later today for an update if something in the forecast changes enough for me to think you need to know about it. Otherwise pay attention to local media outlets and the NWS for updates.

Stay safe.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible in the Western Panhandle Tuesday Night, Spreading to the East on Wednesday

January 23, 2023

Happy Monday Morning! Who says that? Anyhow, areas near the coast will see another round of severe storms tomorrow evening and into Wednesday. The greatest risk for severe weather will be from about Walton County, FL westward through the Alabama and Mississippi coasts and adjacent areas late tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has forecast an enhanced (orange) risk for severe weather from the FL/AL line east through part of Okaloosa County with a slight risk (yellow) extending east through Walton County. All hazards will be possible but the most significant threats are tornadoes and damaging winds. In the enhanced risk area the tornado risk is 10% with significant severe (EF2 or stronger) tornadoes possible and a 30% chance of damaging winds. To the east through Walton County the risk is 5% and 15% for tornadoes and damaging winds respectively. Severe storm timing looks to be late Tuesday into the early morning hours on Wednesday, see regional graphics below.

Later Wednesday morning the severe threat will move to the east, diminishing as it does so. Right now the SPC is only forecasting a marginal (dark green) risk of severe storms from Walton County eastward and spreading inland a bit. I'll provide details later if the risk is high enough to warrant another update but right now that is not expected.

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday)

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Emerald Coast

With the severe weather threat occurring during the overnight hours it is especially important that you have multiple ways of receiving alerts. Local media outlets on TV or social media will be a great source of information once the weather gets closer. 

I'm behind on debriefing the last two severe weather events. I didn't want to clutter up this update so maybe I'll just make a blog post and link it next time. There was also a small chance of severe weather this weekend that resulted in some storm damage in the area but the risk was low enough that I didn't think it warranted an email.

Stay safe and have a good week.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Today and Tonight for Parts of AL and TN

January 18, 2023

A quick update this morning: there is a chance of severe weather later today and into the overnight and Thursday morning hours if you're in northern-northwestern Alabama or central to eastern Tennessee. The SPC has issued a marginal (dark green) risk of severe weather for these areas. Damaging winds will be the main threat but an isolated tornado and hail are also possible for areas in the more western part of the marginal risk area. Timing graphics are provided for the main areas.

Day 1 Outlook

Huntsville Area

Birmingham-Montgomery Area

The rest of us will have a chance of rain and storms today, tonight, and tomorrow as a cold front pushes through. By the weekend another system will move in first along the coast on Saturday and then into the rest of the southeast on Sunday. I'll speak about the last severe weather forecast (and how this one did also) in the next update.

Stay safe and have a great rest of the week.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow

January 11, 2023

I hope the new year has been treating everyone well. The mild weather continues and with it we'll see another round of severe weather tomorrow. The SPC has issued a slight (yellow) risk for severe weather for most of Alabama and southeastern Tennessee with a marginal risk area spreading towards the coast, northwest Alabama, and central Tennessee. The main threat will be damaging winds but there is also a low (2%) tornado chance as shown in the upper right of the outlook. Timing for each region is shown as well. Most of the weather should clear the area before midnight except for maybe some lingering showers in the mountains of Tennessee.

Day 2 Outlook

Huntsville

Montgomery-Birmingham

Eastern TN

Mobile-Pensacola

Destin-Panama City

To wrap things up, here's how the last severe weather forecast went. It looks like the SPC did pretty well both days except the tornadoes for both days were displaced to the northeast.

January 3rd

January 4th

Lots of pictures today but I don't think we'll have a high impact event tomorrow. We'll get some cool air after the rain passes through but expect warm (for winter) temps to continue for the next few weeks. The next chance of rain looks to be Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Have a great rest of the week. 

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow Into Wednesday

January 2, 2023

Happy New Year! I hope you all had a Merry Christmas and have enjoyed the holiday season!

It looks like we'll enjoy milder if not warm temperatures for a few weeks (don't worry, the cold will return). Along with the warmth we'll also see our first chance of severe weather for the new year. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting an enhanced (orange) and slight risk (yellow) of severe weather for our area tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours, with a marginal risk Wednesday morning for areas farther east. Note that within the enhanced region there is a 10% chance of tornados with significant severe weather (EF2 or stronger tornadoes) possible. Damaging winds and hail are also possible throughout the region. Timing is tricky with multiple rounds of severe weather possible and with the severity of each dependent on how conditions evolve throughout the day so take a look at the graphics for your area and consult local media outlets for more details. As of this writing there was no graphic from the Tallahassee NWS office but for areas from Walton County east expect timing to be later in the evening Tuesday through noon on Wednesday and the overall threat to be less severe than areas to the west.

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday)

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Birmingham Area

Huntsville Area

After the weather clears the area around midday Wednesday we'll see some cooler (but not real cold) weather in its wake. The next chance for rain will be Saturday into Sunday as a weak cold front passes through. Right now no significant storms or rainfall are expected this weekend.

If you're curious, here is how the forecast for the last event on December 14th verified. The SPC increased the threat to moderate later in the day for a small area to our west. All in all it looks like it was a pretty good forecast.

Have a great week and stay safe. For those in the higher risk areas make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts and stay tuned to local weather outlets for the latest information. I'll send out an update tomorrow if the forecast changes enough to warrant it.

Chris