2024 Hurricane Season Outlook

May 28, 2024

I hope you all had a great holiday weekend and that the rain stayed away enough for you to enjoy it. The North Atlantic hurricane season begins this Saturday on June 1st and I wanted to give you an idea of what we may be in store for this season. To start with, you should prepare the same for every hurricane season. All it takes is one storm to impact you for it to be a busy season for you. That being said, if the early seasonal forecasts are correct we may be in for a rough time. If you stop reading here, do this one thing and watch this video from Dr. Levi Cowan. He does an excellent job explaining the possibilities for the coming season. I recommend subscribing to his channel as well. He doesn't produce too many videos but when he does they are usually something you want to pay attention to.

Now for the season outlook...The Barcelona Supercomputing Center (link) compiles the forecasts for over 20 different agencies and groups that provide seasonal hurricane forecasts. The current compilation is below.

You can see that most forecasts are in the red zone, showing a strong consensus that we can expect above normal activity this season. Note that the above is for hurricanes, not named storms, which could easily be double what is shown. One of the most well known seasonal forecasts is the one from Colorado State University (CSU). Their preseason forecast this year, which they describe as "extremely active," is the highest from them on record! They are forecasting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The 1991-2020 average for these is 14.4, 7.2, and 3.2 respectively. Along with the expectation of a high number of storms from CSU is higher than normal landfall probabilities for every part of the US. Their probabilities for at least one major hurricane making landfall is 42% for the Gulf Coast (Brownsville, TX to Cedar Key, FL), 34% for the East Coast (Cedar Key south to the Keys and then north up the East Coast), and 66% for the Caribbean (averages are 27%, 21%, and 47%). NOAA's forecast is similarly high if you'd like to look at it. While higher activity does not always mean a high number of landfalls, generally more storms equates to more landfalls. Early things I'm reading indicate storm formation locations and expected steering current patterns will favor quite a few landfalling storms but we'll have to wait and see what happens.  

So what is driving these high forecast numbers? One of the main factors is that we are transitioning from El Nino to neutral conditions with La Nina conditions expected later in the summer. A neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) or La Nina state favors tropical development due to lower wind shear in the Atlantic basin. One of the other factors (the primary factor according to CSU) is that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across almost the entire North Atlantic are well above normal and this is correlated with a greater number of storms as well as the potential for stronger storms. Below is the current SST anomaly map (difference from the 1981-2010 average). That is quite a bit of extra energy stored in the ocean compared to a normal season and with the forecast being for this anomaly to persist it is expected that there will be plenty of fuel for tropical cyclones.

So what might the season look like? Storms can and do form almost anywhere anytime, but here is the typical pattern. Here in late May and early-mid June we're in the part of the season where we may see homegrown storms form in the Caribbean, off the East Coast, or even in the Gulf from energy left over from a passing cold front or a Central American Gyre (CAG). There have been a few hints of a storm in the Caribbean or off the East Coast but no strong signals so far. Later in June and into July activity in the tropics tends to stay at a low level with maybe a storm or two forming in the Caribbean or Gulf. Activity starts to ramp up around the 1st of August as we get into the part of the season where storms start forming in the deep tropics from tropical waves moving off of Africa. These are the long track storms we sometimes watch for a week or more as they move across the Atlantic. This activity potentially continues a few months with the peak of the season coming on September 10th on average. During this time some tropical waves have to travel farther to find a favorable environment which leads to some storms forming closer in in the Caribbean or off the East Coast. After the September peak activity slowly decreases and storm formation shifts back to the Caribbean as we head into October and early November. From what I have read I think we'll see most of the activity during the normal peak lasting maybe later into the fall. For more details on seasonal norms with lots of maps and charts see this link.

Don't wait to prepare and think about how a storm may impact summer travel plans. If you need a refresher, below are a few good links on how to prepare. I'm far from an expert but I'm always willing to answer any questions or point you to a good resource.

https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/types-of-emergencies/hurricane.html

https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan

I'll probably send out tropical weather updates every two weeks or so and of course more frequently as warranted. I am way behind putting together a summary of our extended severe weather season, which I really hope has come to an end finally, but I'll do that soon.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible the Rest of Today for N AL and TN and Most of AL Tomorrow

Monday 26, 2024

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend. I'm little behind getting an update out. Strong storms, some possibly severe, should start showing up over central and eastern TN soon. These storms should clear off to the east in the late afternoon or early evening. A little later in the evening another round of storms will move in from the west and settle to the south-southeast towards the coast overnight and through tomorrow morning. It looks like this system may stall near the coast tomorrow, causing another round of showers tomorrow afternoon and evening. For the rest of today and overnight the SPC is forecasting an Enhanced risk of severe weather for northern AL and most of TN. The primary risk for central to eastern TN and north AL is damaging winds (30% chance) with a 5% chance of a tornado and 5-15% chance of hail. A Slight risk area extends south to Birmingham and includes a 15% chance of damaging winds, 2% chance of a tornado, and 5% chance of hail. A narrow marginal risk area extends south of Birmingham but not quite to Montgomery with lesser risks. For Monday there is a Slight risk of severe weather over most of AL. Damaging winds and hail are possible (5% chance) with a narrow 15% hail risk area across a portion of central and northern AL. A Marginal risk area extends into a portion of northwest Florida.

Day 1 Outlook (rest of today - 7 a.m. tomorrow)

Eastern TN (not shown, but there will be another round overnight)

Huntsville Overnight

Birmingham Area Overnight

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Monday - 7 a.m. Tuesday)

Birmingham Area Tomorrow

I was thinking we were going to stay mostly dry down towards the coast but it looks like we'll have a chance at some showers and storms. I think we'll have dry weather through Wednesday morning and then a chance of rain off and on the rest of the week.

Stay safe and enjoy the holiday.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible the Next 4 Days for Northern AL and TN

May 23, 2024

Short update today. It looks like the folks in the northern part of our region drew the short straw this time as severe weather is possible from today through Sunday. For the first three days at least (and as of now) the risk level is Marginal with wind and hail the main threats each day and with an isolated tornado threat tomorrow. We'll have to wait and see about Day 4/Sunday as the risk and threats may be a little higher that day. Severe timing looks to be from the late morning or afternoon today through the evening and overnight into Friday morning. There may be some isolated storms Friday afternoon and evening with another round of isolated storms Saturday morning. That's about as far as I can reliably see as far as timing goes but it's possible the next round comes through Saturday evening, lingering into the overnight hours into early Sunday. I don't think the overall threat will be that bad so unless something substantially changes this will probably be my only email on this, we'll see how the forecast for Sunday evolves though.

Day 1 (7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Friday)

Day 2 (7 a.m. Friday - 7 a.m. Saturday)

Day 3 (7 a.m. Saturday - 7 a.m. Sunday)

Day 4 (7 a.m. Sunday - 7 a.m. Monday)

I think folks near the coast will have much nicer weather with isolated showers and/or pop-up storms possible each day.

Right now the tropics look good. The UKMet released their seasonal forecast yesterday and NOAA should release theirs today. I hope to have a tropical weather update on what we can expect for the season sent out this weekend.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend and don't forget to take a moment to remember what it's all about, those that made the ultimate sacrifice for us all.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Early Friday through Saturday

May 16, 2024

It looks like our next storm system has been delayed by a day, I had previously thought it would arrive today but now it won't move into our area until the early morning hours tonight. Along with its arrival is another chance of severe weather. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight chance of severe weather for the southern third of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to about Panama City. A Marginal risk area extends to just north of Birmingham and east through the rest of the Panhandle. In the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of damaging winds, and a 5% chance of hail (15% chance in extreme southwestern Alabama). In the Marginal risk area there is a 2% chance of a tornado and a 5% chance of damaging winds and hail. Timing for the highest likelihood of severe weather seems to be from Friday afternoon through the evening. There will be a smaller chance between midnight tonight and tomorrow morning depending on how well the severe storms to our west can hold together overnight. There will also be another chance of severe weather Saturday morning through afternoon as this system exists to our east. Currently there is a Marginal risk of severe weather for Saturday, with damaging winds the most likely threat.

Heavy rain and flooding will be a risk for some areas as well through the weekend.

Day 1 Outlook (rest of today through 7 a.m. Friday)

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Friday - 7 a.m. Saturday)

Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Saturday - 7 a.m. Sunday)

After the current weather system leaves the area it looks like we'll have clear weather until about midweek. The extended spring we've been having looks to be over, expect temps to be at or above seasonal norms for the foreseeable future.

Below is the verification map for Monday's severe weather. It looks like the forecast was pretty good, especially for our area along the coast. There were some severe weather reports in northern AL and central TN on Tuesday as well (not shown).

I was going to write my first tropical weather update for the season this week, but I'm going to wait until NOAA releases its first seasonal hurricane forecast next week. The National Hurricane Center started issuing tropical weather outlooks yesterday and all is clear. Some East Pacific tropical activity is possible and that is always good to watch as it sometimes portends the future activity in the Caribbean. Right now there's nothing to be concerned about.

That's it for today. As always I'll let you know if there is a significant forecast change. I'm hoping that our severe weather season is coming to an end.

Have a good weekend.

Chris

Update - Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather Today and Tonight

May 13, 2024

A quick update this morning, the SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk to Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) along the coast, with the main change being the addition of a 30% damaging wind risk including the possibility of significantly strong (75 mph or greater winds). A severe thunderstorm watch is currently in effect from coastal Mississippi through Apalachicola. It looks like we'll see one line of storms this morning, followed by isolated/scattered showers later, and then another line of storms late this evening or overnight. 

Outlook Valid until 7 a.m. Tuesday Morning

Stay safe.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Monday and Tuesday

May 12, 2024

I hope you all have been having a good Mother's Day weekend. I also hope you got to see the aurora Friday night, pretty cool! The weather is a little crummier today than I thought it would be when I looked several days ago, oh well...On to tomorrow and Tuesday. I was really hoping we were done with this severe weather business, especially with hurricane season coming up soon, but it is not so.

Looking at tomorrow, the Storm prediction Center is forecasting a Slight chance of severe weather for Alabama from south of Birmingham to the coast including the Florida Panhandle east to Panama City. A Marginal risk area extends into northern Alabama and covers nearly the rest of the state. In the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado (2% north of Montgomery), a 15% chance of damaging winds, including an area in southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle that may experience significantly strong winds (greater than 75 mph) as indicated by the black hatching, and a 5% chance of hail. In the Marginal risk area there is a 5% chance of both damaging winds and hail. Timing is a bit complex and unfortunately there aren't any updated timing graphics out yet. Severe storms will be possible in coastal AL and the western FL Panhandle starting tomorrow morning, with the risk for severe weather for inland areas coming later in the afternoon and evening. Depending on storm development to our west, we may see an MCS/bow echo move through in the evening and perhaps again early Tuesday morning. If confidence in this increases we may see a portion of our area upgraded to an Enhanced risk.

There is also a Marginal risk of severe weather on Tuesday for pretty much all of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. No word on specific threats yet, but I think it'll be mostly a damaging wind risk with an isolated tornado possible. There is some uncertainty on how the forecast for Tuesday will evolve so it is possible that we may see the severe weather forecast upgraded as we get closer.

Flooding will also be a concern. For the next three days some areas around Mobile and western FL Panhandle may see 5" of rain or more, with more coming later this week (see third graphic below).

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Monday - 7 a.m. Tuesday)

Day 3 Outlook ( 7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

Mobile - Pensacola Area Flood Threat

Regarding last week, below are the storm reports from the 8th and 9th. You can see we had quite a busy few days of severe weather! I think the forecast was pretty good overall, although it evolved quite a bit over several days. There were some areas that got severe weather at a time of day that wasn't expected, particularly the storms in northern AL during the early evening on the 8th. The particular event we had along the coast is called a bow and arrow MCS, something I had not heard of before until just a few days ago. The "bow" was the fast moving system that came through early and the arrow was the narrow line of west-east oriented storms that we had later. On radar it kind of looks like a bow and arrow. If you want to read a paper about it I can hook you up.

Just so you know, the severe weather reports are reported for the day that the outlook applied. So the 8th is showing reports from 7 a.m. that morning until 7 a.m. the next day (the 9th) and the map for the 9th is showing reports from 7 a.m. on the 9th until 7 a.m. on the 10th. It can be confusing if you're pretty confident there was bad weather in your area but you don't see it on the map for the day you think it happened, especially if it was early in the morning.

8th

9th

It looks like this first weather system will clear out before Wednesday morning. The break in the weather will be short however, with the next system moving in on Thursday and unfortunately lingering through the weekend. If you've been wanting rain (I'm in that camp) you're going to get your wish if you're somewhere south of northern AL. Below is what rainfall totals for the next 7 days could look like.

That's it for today. I think we will see some changes to the severe weather forecast for tomorrow and Tuesday and I'll let you know if any of those changes are significant.

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday.

Chris

Update on Today and Tonight's Severe Weather Forecast

May 9, 2024

I know it can be fatiguing to receive severe weather information several days in a row so I try to limit updates to when I think it is really necessary. Some of the details for today/tonight and tomorrow are the same but there is some new information I think is important to pass on. The biggest change is the possibility of severe weather nearer to the coast from the late morning through afternoon and possibly the evening closer to the coast, in addition to the ongoing weather in northern and central Alabama and the storms expected overnight.

Pictures are worth a thousand words, so I'm going to let them do the talking today. You'll see that two rounds of severe weather are possible for each area, with different threats expected during the different timeframes.

One thing to note is that we may see a Moderate Risk area (level 4 out of 5) pop up across central/southern Alabama to include a 45% chance of damaging winds (currently Enhanced with a 30% chance) if confidence grows that a strong MCS (mesoscale convective system) or bow echo/derecho event may occur overnight. These are fast moving bow-shaped lines of strong or very strong storms that feed off their own energy to propagate themselves over long distances.

Birmingham-Montgomery Area First Round

Birmingham-Montgomery Area Second Round

Inland Mobile-Pensacola Area First Round

Coastal and Inland Mobile-Pensacola Area Second Round

Destin-Panama City Expected Threats

Destin-Panama City First Round Timing

Destin-Panama City Second Round Timing

That's it for now and hopefully the last update for this weather system. Enjoy the nice weather this Mother's Day weekend and get ready for a rainy/stormy start to the week on Monday.

Chris

Update on Severe Weather for Tomorrow and Friday

May 8, 2024

I was hoping not to have to send an update but there's been a forecast change for tomorrow. We also have some details on Friday so I'll share that as well. But before we get to tomorrow I'll update you on the rest of the day and overnight. For most of you the forecast for today is mostly the same. There is now a Moderate Risk area covering a part of Tennessee and the Enhanced risk area has expanded some to the south to include Huntsville. In the Enhanced risk area is a 5% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of hail, and a 30% chance of damaging winds with 75 mph or stronger winds possible. The threats in the Slight and Marginal risk areas over the rest of Alabama remain the same as yesterday. Severe timing is also the same, with the strongest storms coming in one or more rounds overnight.

Day 1 (rest of today through 7 a.m. tomorrow)

For tomorrow there is now a broad Enhanced severe weather risk area across central Alabama. The main threat is a 30% chance of damaging winds with winds stronger than 75 mph possible as indicated by the black hatching. Tornadoes (5% chance) and hail (15% chance) are also possible. A Slight risk area extends from the Enhanced risk area to the coast, pretty much how it looked yesterday. Outside of the Enhanced risk area the main threat will be damaging winds (15% chance) but hail (5-15% chance) and an isolated tornado (2% chance in parts of south Alabama) are also possible. No updated timing graphics yet. Storms will be ongoing tomorrow morning across central Alabama and these will persist on and off throughout the day and into the evening. Some of these may be severe at times, especially the storms in the morning that remain from the severe weather expected overnight tonight. These will diminish in the late evening just as a new round of storms moves in from the west, crossing the state between about midnight and daybreak. It is this second round that has the highest potential for severe weather for central Alabama and it is why the forecast was upgraded. I think the main tornado threat will be from the morning through the evening with the possibility of very strong winds accompanying the storms overnight. Some of these storms may drift into south Alabama or the Florida Panhandle by the morning but their severity should be waning by that point. This is a dynamic situation so the forecast and timing may still change before tomorrow night.

Day 2 (7 a.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday)

After daybreak Friday morning what's left of the storms that moved through central Alabama overnight will be approaching or already along the coast. Right now there is a Marginal chance of severe weather for south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Friday with damaging winds being the main risk. I think the weather will clear by early to mid afternoon which should leave us with a nice (and somewhat cool!) weekend.

Day 3 (7 a.m. Friday - 7 a.m. Saturday)

That's it for today. With the possibility of the strongest storms occurring overnight be sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings, especially if you're in one of the higher risk areas. Hopefully this will be the last significant forecast change, but if not I'll let you know. It still looks like we'll get another weather system on Monday into Tuesday and this time folks along the coast should get a good soaking. We need the rain.

Stay safe.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible the Next Three Days

May 7, 2024

I thought we were mostly done with the spring severe weather season but we are in for one more round (there were a few low probability days here and there but I didn't send an update for those). Thankfully we're not going to see anything as bad as the Midwest and Plains has been experiencing but nonetheless there will be a chance for strong storms through Thursday and maybe even Friday. The risk area starts off in the north-northwest portion of our region and then slowly moves south-southeast over the next few days.

For Day 1 (today) there is a Marginal chance of severe weather for the west/northern half of Alabama and all of Tennessee (with a small Slight risk area in TN that won't affect us). Wind and hail are the main threats (5% chance) with a 2% chance of a tornado near the boundary between the Slight and Marginal risk areas in TN. Severe weather timing today is from the afternoon through the evening.

Day 1 (valid 7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

Huntsville Area

Birmingham

Tomorrow (Day 2) has the greatest potential for severe weather with the focus being in Tennessee and northern Alabama. For Wednesday there is a Slight chance of severe weather from about Birmingham north into Tennessee and an Enhanced risk of severe weather covering a good portion of Tennessee. In the Enhanced region there is a 30% chance of damaging winds, 30% chance of hail, and a 5-10% chance of a tornado (depending on location). Significant severe weather is possible in the Enhanced region which includes winds stronger than 75 mph, 2" or larger hail, and EF2 or stronger tornadoes. In the Slight risk area there is a 15% chance of damaging winds and hail and a 2-5% chance of tornado (again, depending on location). A small Marginal risk area extends south of Birmingham with a 5% chance of strong winds and hail. Severe weather timing will be from the afternoon through Wednesday night for TN and then overnight into Thursday morning for northern AL and the Birmingham area.

Day 2 (7 a.m. Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday)

Eastern TN

Huntsville

Montgomery-Birmingham

For Day 3 (Thursday) the severe threat continues but this time farther south. There aren't as many details provided with the Day 3 forecast but as of now there is a Slight risk of severe weather for Alabama south of Montgomery and for the Florida Panhandle from Pensacola to the east with the Slight risk area staying off the immediate coast starting around the Destin area. There is a narrow Marginal risk area covering the coast from Destin through Panama City. Severe timing will be Thursday evening through Friday morning. I do expect the severe weather threat to persist into Friday, maybe a bit farther south, but currently the severe potential is too low and/or the uncertainty too high to warrant a 15% risk (the lowest the SPC issues that far out) for Day 4 (Friday).

Day 3 (7 a.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday)

Mobile-Pensacola

Walton County-Panama City 

Other than areas in northern AL and TN I don't expect significant impacts from severe weather but folks in the northern part of our region need to keep their guard up tomorrow night into Thursday morning. With all of these storms some areas may see 2" or more of rain (or more for areas that see repeated storms) over the next 4-5 days. The rain should clear Friday into Saturday with rain chances returning on Monday or Tuesday starting first near the coast. After the front passes we'll have a few nights of slightly cooler temps in the evenings through the weekend. We'll have a few warm days the rest of this week but after that daytime highs look to be right around normal for this time of year through mid month.

Next week I'll send out the first tropical weather update for the season. More details to come but all signs point to a very high level of activity. It's not too early to start thinking about preparations.

I'll send another update if the forecast changes significantly. Otherwise tune into local media and stay alert for watches and warnings in your area.

Stay safe.

Chris