Area of Interest in Caribbean & Damaging Wind Possible Today

September 28, 2020

The NHC has identified an area of interest in the northwestern Caribbean where they expect a weak low pressure system to form this week and they give this a 30% chance of tropical development over 5 days. This is what I mentioned yesterday, although I wasn't sure if or when we'd see something official about it. I didn't expect this quite as soon, it actually showed up on the 8 p.m. EDT outlook last night.

Since I'm sending an email this morning, there is a marginal chance of severe weather today extending through eastern Tennessee and most of Alabama associated with a damaging wind risk as the front moves through.

Stay safe and have a good week.

Chris

Deep South Weather Update - Sunday September 27, 2020

September 27, 2020

My weather updates will be mixed now as we transition into fall weather and with hurricane season ongoing. Starting with the tropics, there's not much going on. I thought we'd start to see some activity early this week, but it looks like what I was seeing was due to a model bias in the 11-15 day time frame. Around the weekend the combination of a few old cold fronts hanging around in the northwest Caribbean and a tropical wave pushing west may lead to development. There's no strong consensus, but there's enough of a signal in the models that it's something to watch. This'll be the general pattern we need to watch for in the tropics the rest of the year.

Up here in the mid-latitudes, two fronts will move through this week with the first arriving Monday afternoon through Monday night. We should all get rain from this followed by some cool air, 3-day rain totals are below (which includes this mess we have near the coast this morning). Starting Tuesday night lows will be in the 50s and highs in the 70s from Birmingham south, higher near the coast of course. Parts north of Birmingham into Tennessee will dip down into the 40's with highs in the 60s. The second front will push through later in the week. It looks to be mostly rain free but it will help reinforce the cooler air through the weekend. After the first front early in the week we may be mostly rain free for at least 7 days.

That's it for today. I'll let you know how the tropics look again later in the week.

Have a good week.

Chris

Marginal Chance of Severe Weather from Birmingham South to the Coast Tomorrow

September 23, 2020

This snuck up on me... The remnants of Beta will bring with it a chance of severe weather as it moves east tomorrow. For Thursday the Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for severe weather for Alabama from Birmingham south and for the Florida Panhandle. This coincides with a 2% tornado risk and 5% damaging wind risk. It'll be rainy/stormy on and off throughout the day but I think the greatest severe risk will be from noon to mid-evening, maybe lingering until morning in the east closer to the coast. The animation isn't a forecast, just a general idea how things may evolve.

Pay attention to any watches or warnings that may be issued throughout the day and keep an eye out for changing weather.

Have a good end of the week and a great weekend.

Chris

Monday Morning Update on the Tropics

 September 21, 2020

I hope you all had a good weekend and have enjoyed the cooler weather. Tropical Storm Beta will continue to bring rain and wind to the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next few days. As you can see looking at the forecast cone we will need to watch for the possibility of a track that could bring the storm back over the northern Gulf. Even if that were to happen I think wind shear may be a bit too strong to support redevelopment. As it stands this morning there isn't much model support for this idea but it's something to watch.

The rest of the tropics are starting to quiet down a little compared to the last few weeks. We're about at the end of the African Easterly Wave part of the season, so we're probably not going to see many more systems that we have to watch from way out in the Atlantic. Instead we're transitioning to the part of the season where the Caribbean and Gulf become the hot spots for development. There will still be tropical waves but we'll be watching for them to develop as they get into the Carribean and we'll also have to watch for development after fronts pass through.

The NHC is watching an area between south Florida and the Bahamas that could develop later this week. This area of storms associated with a weak front will drift to the south-southwest for a few days and then come back north around Thursday. The NHC has given this system a 20% chance of development as conditions may become favorable as it comes north. Models don't do much with this system but it could be that they're just not seeing it well. It's nothing to be concerned about yet, just know it's there. 

In the longer term we may need to watch a wave moving into the southeastern Caribbean mid next week and we'll also have one fairly strong front push through around the same time.   

That's all for today. Maybe things will be quiet for a little while once Beta moves on.

Have a great week.

Chris

Friday Morning Tropical Weather Update

September 18, 2020

Taking a quick look at the tropics this morning there's still a lot going on. 

Hurricane Teddy may be a threat to the northeast US or Canadian Maritimes Tuesday or Wednesday or it may go out to sea. The bigger concern for most of us is TD 22 in the southwestern Gulf. The forecast for TD 22 is a mess. The steering influences are not very strong or certain so that makes for a difficult forecast beyond this weekend. It won't meander around forever, eventually something will pick up and move it along and we could see it moving to the northeast later next week. Right now eastern Texas and Louisiana are the places I'd be watching but that far out anything is on the table. Intensity forecast beyond the weekend is also a crapshoot so we'll just have to watch. If you want to see some models for 22, go here: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL22. Just note that this link will break if the storm gets named.

In other news, if you like cooler weather you're in for a treat. Starting this weekend areas near the coast will see highs in the 70's, maybe a day pushing toward 80, and lows in the lower 60's through mid week. Montgomery, Birmingham, and Hunstville will see lows in the mid to upper 50's and highs in the 70's, although Hunstville may stay a little warmer than places to the south with highs approaching 80. The Chattanooga area will see some even cooler temps with a few nights in the upper 40's. Things will warm up towards the end of the week but maybe we'll see cooler weather return the last week of September.

That's it for today. Have a great Friday and a great weekend. We'll know more about TD 22 around the start of the week.

Chris

Wednesday Morning Update on the Tropics

September 16, 2020

I just wanted to send a quick update about the orange area in the southwestern Gulf which has been designated Invest 90L by the NHC. Currently this system is expected to stay down near where it is. It may move north a bit and may eventually become a threat to southern Texas but it is not a threat to the north central Gulf or parts east. If it does develop eventually it is expected to push west. Teddy and the other stuff out there are also not a threat to the US at this time.

If you didn't know, Sally unexpectedly intensified to a 105 mph storm right before landfall last night. Some slight intensification was thought possible, but not that much. It still has 80 mph sustained winds at this time but it should weaken quickly as it moves to the northeast,

Chris

Tuesday Morning Update on Sally

September 15, 2020

Some good news this morning, Hurricane Sally decreased in strength a bit overnight and now has 85 mph winds, down from 100 mph. Sally does have a ragged eye now but it wasn't able to completely close off the eye enough overnight to allow for strengthening. Sally is now being impacted by wind shear and upwelling has even started to cool the water beneath the storm by a few degrees. Sally is not forecast to strengthen and may actually start to weaken before landfall although a few models support slight strengthening. The forecast with the 10 a.m. advisory is for Sally to make landfall tomorrow morning as an 80-85 mph storm near the mouth of Mobile Bay. The NHC shifted the early part of the track a bit more to the east but kept the later part the same. The NHC is favoring the GFS and ECMWF tracks which they deem the most reliable right now. There are still quite a few models showing a track more to the east so we'll see if there are a few more slight shifts before landfall.

Even though it is weakening Sally is still a dangerous storm. The NHC has called the potential for flooding 'historic.' with storm surge and inland flooding from rain being huge concerns.

The Florida Panhandle and Alabama coast are currently under a tornado watch and I expect the threat to continue through tomorrow. Several rotating storms have been noted by radar offshore but so far I haven't seen anything come ashore.

This may be my only update for today unless there are significant changes in the track or intensity. You all know what to do in this kind of weather so stay safe.

Chris