Quick Update on the Possibility for Gulf Development Midweek

June 25, 2022

I wanted to provide a quick update on something I didn't notice yesterday. You'll see on the 5-Day Outlook from this morning that the NHC is watching a spot in the Gulf for development. It looks like there's a decent chance that we'll see something try to spin up in the north-central Gulf around midweek from some energy left over on the tail end of a stalled front. This is a typical development mechanism this time a year, although it's getting a little late in the season for this. Models are sort of back and forth and not in disagreement but I think there's enough of a signal that we'll see something at least try to form. Three pieces of good news (for us) is that it is likely to be short-lived, not very strong, and will move off to the west-northwest. So in short this should be nothing to be concerned about.

There's not much new on Invest 94L out in the Atlantic but if anything maybe a few of the ensemble members have backed off on the stronger solutions, so good news if that trend holds.

Have a good weekend.

Chris

Invest 94L Designated in the Atlantic

June 24, 2022

Synopsis: it looks more likely than not that there will be a tropical system developing in the Western Atlantic or Eastern Caribbean sometime in the next 3-7 days. Right now a threat to the US looks fairly unlikely but we'll need to keep watching how this system progresses.

The tropical wave that I mentioned last time is now looking like it has a good chance for development. Designated Invest 94L, the latest 5-Day Outlook from the National Hurricane Center is indicating a 60% chance of development.

The two questions we of course want to know are where it is going to go and how strong it will get. The near-term future of the system is fairly certain. Development will be slow over the next five days as it approaches the Lesser Antilles but I think it will be a tropical depression by then if not a low end tropical storm. Once it enters the Caribbean the uncertainty increases a bit for a variety of reasons (the main one being a drop in forecast skill after five days). The majority of models keep the storm relatively weak and on a track towards Central America but you'll notice that there are a few ensemble solutions that bring a stronger storm a bit more north. I think what's going on there is that the few stronger solutions are feeling a little bit of a different steering influence and get pulled more north where the weaker solutions don't feel this northerly tug. It should be noted that intensity forecasts tend to be more uncertain than track forecasts and there are some other models showing a stronger after five days. Conditions in the Caribbean look like they may be moderately favorable for strengthening so we'll have to wait and see. That being said I don't think we're looking at a threat to the US at this time. We also have quite a few days to watch this, it won't be in the Western Caribbean for another week or more.

European Model Ensemble Members

GFS (US) Model Ensemble Members

Spaghetti Model Tracks

That's it for today. We'll know a lot more in five to seven days or so but I'll give you another update on Monday or Tuesday.

Rain chances will pick up a little in the Southeast through the weekend followed by a return to close to "normal" temperatures so hopefully the weather won't be as hot or dry.

Have a good weekend.

Chris

Update on the Tropics - Development Unlikely Through the end of the Month

June 17, 2022

Synopsis: the area in the western Caribbean will likely not develop, there may be a few things to watch for around the end of the month but currently there are no strong signals for development. Keep in mind we are still in the part of the season when development can occur that models don't predict way ahead of time but the expected weather pattern isn't showing much to be concerned about.

There's not much going on in the tropics today. Invest 93L, which is the area in the western Carribean I mentioned last time, is most likely not going to develop. There was a day or so when chances for development were up to 40% but that was short lived. Around mid week the low pressure system moved ashore in Central America which probably ended its chances for development. It's still listed as having a 10% chance of development over 5 days but it really doesn't look like much will happen. As it is it was not a threat to the central or eastern Gulf Coast.

Looking long term, the GFS is showing development again in the western Caribbean late next weekend or early the last week of June. The GFS has been consistently forecasting phantom storms this season at roughly the 10 day lead time and given the lack of strong support in the other models (which show Eastern Pacific development instead) I'd say this is likely the case here. All the same it is something to watch. The other thing to watch will be a tropical wave that will push off the African coast Sunday or Monday. It's still a bit early to see African Easterly Wave (AEW) development but a few members of the GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles are showing development as the wave approaches the eastern Caribbean around the end of the month. Wind shear looks like it will be a bit strong for development so at this point I'm skeptical. Again something to watch but nothing concerning.

That's it for today. You don't need me to tell you but hot weather is the main story for all of us. Right now we may not see a break from the heat until the week after next when we may see a return to normal temps (i.e. a few degrees less hot, I hesitate to say cooler). There's also not much rain in the forecast until the middle of the last week of June.

Stay cool and be careful if you're out in the heat.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update

June 12, 2022

It's been a little while since there was something to talk about in the tropics, definitely not a bad thing. The NHC is expecting an area of low pressure to form in the western Caribbean sometime later this week, currently they give this system a 20% chance of development over 5 days. At this point it looks unlikely that this will affect the northern Gulf and that's all you need to know for now. For more details keep readings.

The GFS has been showing development in this area for several days now but since the Euro was showing nothing until yesterday I thought I'd wait to send an update. At this point it's still a tale of two models. The GFS develops a fairly strong storm off of Central America Wednesday or Thursday that makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday. The storm, now weaker, then crosses the Bay of Campeche making landfall again in Mexico around next Tuesday. The Euro develops a much weaker system off of Central America on Wednesday or Thursday that then makes landfall in Nicaragua on Friday before dissipating. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles generally support their respective operational models. The Canadian model is a bit in-between. Like the Euro it develops a weaker system but with a more northern track similar to the GFS. Given the variation in the models and the fact that the NHC is only expecting gradual development it seems like the GFS is overdoing the strength of this system (which I think is also a bias of the GFS). Either way a track up our way looks unlikely. We have climatology on our side also as it is typical for early season storms to track more towards Texas. That being said it is something to keep an eye on.

That's it for today, have a good week. Nothing to be concerned about at this point, just know something might develop. I'll send out another update around the middle or end of the week.

Chris

Hurricane Season Starts Today

June 1, 2022

Today is the first day of hurricane season. For the first time in seven years we did not have a named storm prior to the official start of the season. With the history lesson out of the way, we may see the first named storm of this season develop in the next few days. The NHC is watching Invest 91L in the western Caribbean. As predicted this formed out of the remnants of Agatha and was well forecast by the models. Invest 91L has a 70% chance of development over the next 2 days and a 80% chance over 5 days. We'll likely see it become a tropical depression and then possibly Tropical Storm Alex if it can get its act together. As of now it doesn't look like it will strengthen much above minimal tropical storm strength. The most likely track takes the storm as a messy rainy and windy system across South Florida Friday or Saturday. I've included a model plot to give you an idea of the track, just keep in mind this does not represent every possible solution.

That's it for today. You'll notice there is a yellow area of interest off the east coast of Florida, that is nothing to be concerned about. Unless something changes considerably this will be my last update on this storm. Last time I mentioned that there were some model signals showing additional development next week. As of now that signal has disappeared.

Have a good rest of the week.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update

May 28, 2022

I hope everyone is having a good weekend. It's time to start watching the tropics a little closer, the NHC is showing a 20% chance of development through 5 days for the southern Gulf. The synopsis is that we may see a tropical system in the Gulf or Caribbean sometime next week. The main threat would be some windy and rainy weather, worse case a tropical storm, for southern or central Florida or Cuba and the Bahamas. Currently there is no threat for the northern Gulf. Read on for more details.

The NHC is tracking the first named storm in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Agatha. You can see the track below. Agatha will make landfall in southern Mexico as perhaps a category 2 hurricane on Monday. 

The storm's remnants will then cross Mexico/Central America and enter the Bay of Campeche or western Caribbean sometime around the middle to the end of next week. There is enough heat in the water to support development but right now chances for significant development look pretty low. Wind shear (which is detrimental to tropical cyclone formation) is forecast to be fairly strong during this time. Models are not agreeing on a solution at this point. The Euro has an east-weighted storm developing in the Bay of Campeche or Yucatan Channel around Thursday or Friday with it then moving ashore, maybe as a tropical storm, somewhere along the Central or Southern Florida Gulf Coast Sunday or Monday. The GFS's solution is a bit more complicated. It has the remnants of Agatha kick starting a Central American Gyre (CAG). The CAG is a broad area of rotation that can form this time of year over Central America. CAGs can sometimes provide the seed needed to start tropical development. To be honest I'm not sure if the remnants of a storm can start a CAG or if it is due to some other influence. Nonetheless, the GFS shows a CAG forming and spitting out a tropical system south of Cuba Thursday or Friday with a tropical storm then moving off to the northeast across Cuba and the Bahamas. The Euro and GFS ensemble members largely agree with the operational models. For what it's worth the Canadian model and its ensembles are in agreement with the Euro. Despite this agreement it is too soon to tell what if anything may happen. 

Bottom line is we're looking at tropical storm strength at the most and at this point I'd say a tropical depression or some kind of messy low pressure is more likely. Again, the northern Gulf is not at risk at all at this point. This is probably too many words for something that is most likely going to be a rainmaker for places to our south, but I know any kind of tropical activity in the Gulf tends to cause excitement.

Enjoy the rest of the Memorial Day weekend, don't forget to take a moment and remember what the day is for. We'll start to get a clearer picture around midweek. Once this system is out of the picture there are some hints that there may be something else to watch around the first full week of June.

Chris

Chance of Severe Weather Today and Tomorrow

May 25, 2022

It still looks like this stormy pattern will clear out by the weekend but before it does there's a chance of severe weather today and tomorrow as a front pushes through. Parts of our area have a marginal risk for severe weather both days with all modes (damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail) possible, albeit with low chances for each. Damaging winds will be the most common threat but an isolated tornado and hail are also possible. Expect stormy weather to continue off and on, sometimes steady, until Friday morning or so with a small chance for severe weather with each round. Rainfall totals could get fairly high in some areas.

Day 1 (7 a.m. today through 7 a.m. tomorrow)

Day 2 (7 a.m. tomorrow through 7 a.m. Friday)

Estimated rainfall through Saturday morning

We're more or less done with the main threat of severe weather for the season outside of a tropical cyclone or a strong summer thunderstorm. There have been several days over the last few weeks where parts of our area had a marginal risk for severe weather but I didn't send an email because tornadoes typically weren't in the forecast or were for only a small area with a low chance. With the widespread, although low probably, nature of this event I thought I should let you know what to expect the next few days.

That's it for today. Nothing to be concerned about in the tropics although the Eastern Pacific is heating up a bit. We'll see if the Caribbean picks up in a week or two.

Chris