Update on the Tropics

August 31, 2020

Taking a look at the tropics this morning, even though the 5-day outlook map looks busy there aren't any imminent threats to the US. The system off the east coast, Invest 90L, could bring stormy conditions to the Outer Banks as it passes but I don't have any real concerns about it. Invest 99L is the other red system in the Southeast Caribbean. This could develop some as it moves west but thankfully for the US it does not look like it will try to come north very much, it is mainly a concern for the northern coast of South America and Central America/Southern Mexico.

The tropical wave train keeps sending waves out into the Atlantic but for now there are no immediate concerns. The one to watch the closest is a wave that will come off of Africa over the next few days, with the NHC giving it a 30% chance of development over 5 days. It looks like if this one does try to develop it may be steered fairly far to the north and away from land but we'll have to wait and see. Looking at conditions in the eastern Atlantic there is some dry air north of these waves from the Saharan Air Layer and maybe a little bit of wind shear along their track and I think this is limiting development at this time. There are some hints of development here and there in the models but nothing to get too excited about at this point, definitely no real strong signals. That being said we're getting into the busiest part of the season so any disturbance needs to be watched closely for development.

That's all I have for today. I'll send out another update around the end of the week unless something significant happens between now and then.

Have a great week.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow for AL & TN, Update on the Tropics

August 27, 2020

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the northwestern third of Alabama and most of Tennessee in either slight or marginal risk areas for severe weather tomorrow due to lingering effects from Laura. These areas roughly correspond to a 5% and 2% chance of a tornado respectively. There are also 15% and 5% damaging wind risk areas as outlined in the third graphic. The simulated radar does not necessarily indicate how the situation will evolve so stay alert to local weather conditions.
 

Turning to the tropics, major hurricane Laura impacted the western Louisiana coast last night as a very strong category 4 hurricane. I'm sure you all have started to see some of the pictures and videos coming out of the area. We'll have to wait for the official report to see how strong it actually was, a category 5 is not out of the question. As residents in that area start to recover the rest of us need to stay prepared as we're still approaching the climatological peak of the season. On cue the NHC has identified two tropical waves that need to be watched for development on the 5-day tropical outlook. In addition to this ensemble models are hinting that there may be a series of several more waves that need to be watched over the next few weeks.

The consensus is that Laura was the start of what will be a very busy late summer and fall season as we head into September and October. We all need to stay prepared and keep watching. I'll keep you updated as the situation changes.
Stay safe and have a good Friday and great weekend.
Chris

Hurricane Laura Update - August 26, 2020

August 26, 2020

Hurricane Laura strengthened steadily yesterday and overnight and is now a strong category 2 hurricane with 110 mph sustained winds, 1 mph from a category 3. Edit: while I was writing this and as the graphic shows, Laura is now a 115 mph category 3 hurricane. It strengthened by over 45 mph in 24 hours. It is forecast to become a 130 mph category 4 storm in the next 12 hours and then weaken some before landfall due increasing wind shear near the coast. The track still calls for a landfall late tonight right on the Texas/Louisiana border which will thankfully spare the Houston metro area from a direct hit. Unfortunately this will probably be a devastating storm for Lake Charles, LA and the surrounding area. Some models still indicate that Laura could be even stronger than the official forecast, the NHC mentions this in their discussion, and some do not show weakening prior to landfall. The core of Laura is very large which helps it be able to fight off impediments such wind shear and dry air better than smaller storms. Weakening would be a blessing, but I'm concerned this may not happen.

In less there's something significant to report this will be my last update on Laura.

Have a great rest of the week.

Chris

Tropical Storm Laura Update - August 25, 2020

August 25, 2020

Tropical Storm Laura is now out in the open Gulf east of Cuba moving just north of west. With 70 mph winds it is just shy of hurricane strength. The forecast from the NHC calls for steady strengthening with Laura making landfall very early Thursday morning along the Texas/Louisiana border as a category 3 hurricane. As I have been mentioning the intensity forecast has been slowly ticking up and I think this trend will continue. Conditions aren't perfect for rapid intensification but they're pretty close and they will remain that way until landfall. A strong category 3 or category 4 hurricane is certainly possible. We may see the track shift just a little to the west as some of the track models have been consistent at taking the storm more to the south and west. So far the NHC has been pretty locked in on the TX/LA border so we'll see what happens. A landfall near the Houston metro area is still a possibility.

Today is the last day for preparations for people in the path of Laura. If you know anyone in that area you may want to get in touch with them and make sure they are taking action.

Through the weekend we'll need to start monitoring a tropical wave that will come off of Africa around Thursday. Some models are hinting that this may try to develop a little east of the Lesser Antilles early next week.

That's it for this morning, have a good day.

Chris

Marginal Tornado/Waterspout Threat Along The Panhandle

August 24, 2020

There is a threat of tornadoes and waterspouts moving onshore along the Florida Panhandle today due to conditions created by Tropical Storm Marco. The Panhandle has a marginal risk of severe weather associated with a 2% tornado threat as shown below. As I'm writing this there is a storm showing fairly strong rotation about 40 miles offshore of the Okaloosa Walton County line moving to the northeast. It's marked by the upside down pink triangle. These are well identified by radar and the NWS will issue warnings if there is a threat to land.

Stay safe.

Chris

Monday Morning Update on Laura and Marco

August 24, 2020

No major changes to the forecast for Marco and Laura this morning. Marco has weakened some overnight and will continue to do so on its approach to a Louisiana landfall tonight or early Tuesday.

Laura is moving just south of Cuba this morning and is nearing hurricane strength. The forecast is for it to move west-northwest remaining just south of the island, slowly strengthening before entering the Gulf early Tuesday. From Tuesday on it is forecast to strengthen steadily and make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border late Wednesday or early Thursday as a strong category 2 hurricane. There is still some spread on the track and intensity guidance. It looks like the general track has consolidated fairly well and I wouldn't expect any major shifts, keeping in mind the cone is still wide at the landfall point. The intensity forecast is from a blend of models so you can think of it as sort of an average. What is concerning is that the HWRF, which is a high resolution hurricane specific model, has been consistently showing Laura becoming a very strong hurricane as it approaches landfall. This model can have a bias that over-strengthens storms in certain situations but it accurately predicted Michael and Dorian and has handled Marco well also. Because of this consistency it is becoming hard to ignore and I still think we'll see the intensity forecast increase some in the coming days. It is possible that the HWRF is wrong which would be good news for those in the path of Laura, we'll just have to wait and see.

That's it for this morning. The rest of the Tropical Atlantic is quiet for now but a tropical wave will come off the coast of Africa later this week that we'll need to keep an eye on as we end the month. It looks like it will be a rainy week along a lot of the Gulf Coast whether we're in the path of one of these storms or not. Have a great week.

Chris

Update on Laura and Marco - Sunday August 23, 2020

August 23, 2020

There hasn't been any major changes in the forecast for Laura or Marco over the last 12 hours. Laura is currently over the western edge of Hispaniola and should reemerge over water soon. Even though it is over land it looks fairly healthy. This is concerning because its future track may be along or just offshore of the southern coast of Cuba which could limit land interaction and allow for strengthening before it is in the open Gulf Monday night. The official forecast calls for Laura to be a strong category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds at landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border late Wednesday or early Thursday. In their discussion the NHC cautions that their intensity forecast could be on the low side and to also expect adjustments to the track beyond 3 days, where and when it starts to make the right turn will make a big difference on where it makes landfall. There's really nothing to impede strengthening in the Gulf so unless Laura starts to fall apart across Cuba I think we will see significant upward adjustments to the intensity forecast in the coming days.

Marco is continuing its trek to the north-northwest across the Gulf and should be a hurricane soon. No major changes in the intensity or track forecasts are expected and Marco should make landfall in eastern Louisiana as a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm tomorrow.

Laura should be taken very seriously by everyone from Louisiana through the central Texas coast, I'd be watching closely from Mississippi also. The forecast cone still covers a large area and it is more likely than not that Laura will have major impacts where it makes landfall.

Enjoy your Sunday, I'll send out another update by tomorrow morning.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - August 22, 2020

August 22, 2020

I've been waiting for the 11 a.m. EST to write an update. The 5-day forecast for Laura is below. Laura's track has shifted quite a bit to the west since yesterday and there is a fair amount of confidence this will hold at least over the next 3 days. Beyond 3 days there's good model support for a track even farther west so we need to watch how that evolves. A track back to the east a little isn't out of the realm of possibility either. The forecast is for Laura to be a strong category 1 hurricane at landfall along the Louisiana coast Wednesday into Thursday. The intensity forecast is still a bit uncertain. How strong Laura becomes will be mostly determined by how much land interaction there is before it is in the open Gulf. Not counting interaction with Marco, which is still a bit of a wild card but currently not expected to really affect Laura, conditions along Laura's path in the Gulf are favorable for significant strengthening. If Laura avoids a lot of land interaction to the north or south of the Greater Antilles it could be a formidable storm by early next week. Even with land interaction, we've all seen how fast storms can intensify in just a few days so Laura needs to be taken seriously no matter what its path is over the next few days.

Turning to Marco, you can see its 5-day forecast below. Marco is expected to become a hurricane soon but then weaken a little before landfall somewhere along the Louisiana or Texas coast early next week. As a general rule, the stronger Marco is the more eastward it will track so we will want to watch for track shifts should it strengthen more than forecast.

I'll send out another update tomorrow if not before if there's something to report. Have a great weekend.

Chris

Tropical Update - August 21, 2020

August 21, 2020

The forecast for TD 13 is still complex this morning and there's a little uncertainty with TD 14 as well. TD 13 has the greater potential between the two even though the forecast is far from certain and TD 14 is expected to bring at least some impacts to the northwestern Gulf next week.

Below is the 5-day forecast for TD 13. TD 13 has struggled a bit since yesterday morning and you could make the argument that it is now more of an open wave and no longer a tropical depression with a closed circulation. The distinction isn't that important at the moment. The forecast is for TD 13 to struggle a little longer and then start to slowly intensify as conditions improve over the next few days. It is possible that it never strengthens beyond its current state but at least some strengthening seems most likely. How much it intensifies somewhat depends on how far south it tracks, with a track over Puerto Rico and the Greater Antilles being not good for strengthening due to land interaction. Because of this the model guidance ranges from TD 13 being anything from an open wave to a major hurricane in the Gulf. The NHC forecast reflects the middle of these possibilities. How it may interact with TD 14 is also unknown.

TD 14 is struggling a bit as well but it is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. It is forecast to strengthen up until when it makes landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula where it will weaken over land. The forecast is then for it to restrengthen as it emerges over the Gulf and heads towards the Texas/Louisiana border. The official forecast is for it to be a hurricane at landfall, but the NHC is somewhat doubtful that conditions will support that much strengthening.

Folks along the northern to northeastern Gulf Coast should start thinking about preparations as we may be looking at a hurricane in the eastern Gulf around Tuesday. Coastal residents in the northwest Gulf should start thinking about preparations as well.

I'll send out another update by tomorrow morning.

Chris

Invest 97L is now TD 14

August 20, 2020

Invest 97L is looking healthy enough this morning that the NHC has upgraded it to TD 14. I still think TD 13 is the main one to watch but TD 14 may just get a name first.

Chris

Invest 98L Becomes TD 13

August 20, 2020

Last night Invest 98L was upgraded to Tropical Depression 13, the 5-day forecast is shown below. I'll explain a little about what the models are showing but the official forecast is what we should all go by to make any decisions.

The GFS operational model has started to see this system much better and now shows a strong category 2 hurricane making landfall around the Florida Big Bend area early next Wednesday. Just as a reference, the model run 6 hours before that showed a strong tropical storm making landfall in Louisiana. A few other models are showing development but not the Euro yet. I'd like to see more run to run consistency from the GFS and other models come on board around a consolidated forecast before I start trusting any one solution. The spaghetti models along with the GFS and Euro ensemble guidance are below. Notice that very few of the Euro's 51 members are showing development. I can't really say which of the two between the GFS and Euro are seeing the future environment correctly, it'll probably take another day or two to know for sure, but I'm leaning towards the GFS with its idea that we will have a potentially impactful storm making landfall along the northern to eastern Gulf Coast mid next week. It hasn't really made a lot of sense that no development was shown by the GFS up until last night and that the Euro still isn't showing any, most tropical meteorologists seem to be confused by this so I think the GFS now may be starting to see things correctly.

Invest 97L is still doing its thing and the outlook on its future is about the same as I mentioned yesterday. The track guidance may be starting to consolidate around a more westerly track in the Gulf with the intensity forecast maybe a touch higher. For the time being TD 13 seems to be the one to pay more attention to but we'll keep watching this as well.

Hopefully by tomorrow morning we'll see some better model agreement where we can start to feel more confident about a forecast.

Have a good day.

Chris

Tropical Update - August 19, 2020

August 19, 2020

There are still two areas being watched by the NHC, Invest 97L in the Caribbean and Invest 98L farther to the east with a third area off the coast of Africa that needs to be watched over the next few days. I'm not going to spend any time on the yellow area today. You can see these and their potential paths on the 2-Day and 5-Day outlook maps below. As of right now, the good news is that there doesn't seem to be a consensus that there will be a major impact from either 97L or 98L. That doesn't mean that there won't be, but it is not like we've seen in the past for some storms where the models are locked in on them being a serious threat. So for now we're still in the mode of watching and waiting for the forecast to consolidate. Don't be concerned yet, but don't let your guard down.

To give you an idea where 97L and 98L may track and how they may strengthen, let's look at some of the model plots starting with 97L.

97L tracks:

97L intensity:

98L tracks:

98L intensity:

There are additional model solutions than what I've shown above so keep in mind these are not the full range of possibilities nor are they a forecast.

97L is struggling to develop and it doesn't look like it has highly favorable conditions ahead of it for the near term. I think it is fairly certain that 97L will enter the Gulf late this weekend, but there is a huge spread on where it may go after that and I don't think the Gulf will be the most favorable for development. The consensus from the intensity guidance is for a tropical storm at the most at least for the near term. It sounds like a stronger storm may track more to the east and a weaker storm more to the west. That being said we're talking about 4+ days from now so we're at the limit of reliability for the models and the models haven't been doing well this year.  I didn't show the GFS or GEPS (Canadian) tracks for 97L because they're not that much different than the other group of tracks.

98L is looking fairly healthy and it is expected to slowly strengthen as it approaches the islands. What happens after that is uncertain and depends on its track, which you can see has a large spread as well. I'm also showing the GFS and GEPS (Canadian) model ensemble tracks because the other group seems to show a track in the Gulf and I want you to see that is far from certain. The intensity guidance is a little stronger and it is more likely we'll see this become a hurricane over the short term. In a general sense, a stronger storm in the near term would favor a more easterly track. That doesn't rule out a weaker storm initially that stays more on a westerly course and then strengthens later, it is just too far out to know at this time.

So we continue to watch and wait. Again, at least we're not staring down a couple of monster storms in the models at this point but we need to be prepared to see what happens when the forecast consolidates over the next several days.

Have a great rest of the week.

Chris

Update on the Tropics - August 16, 2020

August 16, 2020

Below is the 5-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center. As it was thought, activity is starting to increase in the tropics. It's still too far out to talk for certain about development or specific storm tracks but I think that will change some time this week. Operational models aren't showing a lot of development just yet, but the ensemble models, or at least some of the members, are. The operational models have done poorly overall this year so it is possible they're just not "seeing" the environment correctly yet. Either way, observed conditions and support from the ensembles is enough for the NHC to start identifying some areas of interest.

Please get your hurricane kit in order and have an evacuation plan if you have not done so already. I'll probably send out another update mid-week. Until then enjoy the rest of your weekend and have a great week.

Chris

     

Tropical Weather Update

August 10, 2020

There is not a lot of tropical activity to report this morning. The NHC is watching an area well out in the Atlantic designated Invest 95L that has a 60% chance of developing over the next 5 days. Models don't forecast a lot of development from this in the short term but it is something to watch.

Activity has picked up in the Eastern Pacific over the past few days in what has been a fairly quiet season over there so far. This is notable because an uptick in activity in the Eastern Pacific can foretell what may be coming in the Atlantic basin over the next few weeks. Several of the weather patterns that support tropical development move west to east. These can be monitored by other means but looking for development to our west can be helpful for forecasters.

Last week Colorado State issued an update to their seasonal hurricane forecast. Their forecast is now for 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. This is almost double the activity of an average season. The 9 named storms and 2 hurricanes we have already had count toward these totals. Other seasonal forecasts indicate about the same level of activity. We're about a month away from the climatological peak of hurricane season and it is generally expected that we'll see activity start to pick up over the next few weeks.

I'll let you know once something pops up we need to start watching. Have a great week.

Chris

Saturday Morning Tropical Update

August 1, 2020

I think the calendar is broken, I'm not sure how it can be August already...I apologize for not getting an update out yesterday. I wanted to wait until Friday to let the forecast for Isaias settle and then Friday got busy. I figured most of you were following things closely anyways.

Hurricane Isaias will continue its course up the east coast. Right now it isn't forecast to strengthen more than a category 1 hurricane but that could change some if it tracks more over open water. At a minimum it looks like it may bring hurricane or tropical storm conditions from Florida all the way to the Canadian Maritimes.

Looking at the rest of the tropics there are a few other areas of interest but no serious threats to land are currently expected. TD Ten located in the far eastern Atlantic may strengthen enough to get a name before it encounters hostile conditions and weakens. The orange 'x' is a strong tropical wave that may strengthen a little but it looks to take a path out to sea, maybe one near Bermuda, but no significant impacts are expected.

I'm not seeing much in the longer term and there's a possibility that the first part of August is quiet in the tropics. Things can change so I'll let you know if something pops up.

That's all I have for today. Have a great weekend.

Chris