Slight to Moderate Chance of Severe Weather Today

August 31, 2021

There is a slight to moderate chance of severe weather today across the FL Panhandle, a good portion of AL, and eastern TN. These risk areas correspond to a 5% and 2% tornado probability respectively. Storms may become severe this morning with the threat lasting through the afternoon, with perhaps a second round in the evening. The severe threat should move out of our area later this evening and overnight.

Have a great day.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - A Few Things to Watch

August 30, 2021

Ida is still bringing impacts to LA, MS, AL, and the western FL Panhandle. Now that the main threat is over it's time to look at the rest of the tropics.

The NHC's 5-Day Outlook below looks busy but the only area we're interested in at this time is the yellow area in the western Caribbean. I previously mentioned a few times that we'd need to watch this area again this week. Well it is here now but the good news is that models aren't anywhere near as excited about it as they were when Ida was forming. Out of the 51 EPS and 31 GEFS ensemble members only a few from each show development while the operational ECMWF and GFS show no development at all at this time. The Canadian model ensembles show a stronger signal but it isn't looked upon as seriously as the other models. Additionally, the majority of the genesis guidance show little to no development. It is something to watch but I'm not really concerned about it at this point.

TD Ten is a fish storm (it's going to stay out to sea and only bother the fishes if you're not familiar with that term). The area in the east Atlantic is a strong tropical wave that will move off the coast today. This has a high chance of development but it looks like it will probably recurve and become another fish storm, something else to watch in the short term.

That is all I'm watching for today. We're just a few days away from what is historically the peak of the season so we're likely not done just yet, but for the moment there are no immediate concerns. Hopefully the continuing impacts from Ida aren't too much of an issue for anyone. We'll see what daybreak reveals in Louisiana today. Those folks are going to need a lot of help so if you have the means consider providing support.

Have a great week.

Chris

Update on Ida's Severe Weather Threat

August 29, 2021

Ida is well on its way to be a historic event and it is currently on the cusp of being category 5 strength. If you didn't know, today is the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina...

Regarding impacts to the FL Panhandle, severe weather in the form of tornadoes and damaging winds are possible through Tuesday night with slight (yellow) and marginal (dark green) areas identified for days 1 and 2. There is currently a tornado watch for coastal areas from the Okaloosa/Walton County line to the west. The threat extends well up into Alabama on day 1 and into Tennessee on days 2 and 3.

Heavy rainfall amounts are also possible (see bottom map).

Current Weather Watch

Day 1 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook

3 Day Rain Totals (locally higher amounts possible)

That's it for today unless the severe threat increases.

Chris

Friday Morning Update on Tropical Storm Ida

August 27, 2021

Tropical Storm Ida continues its trek towards Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico beyond. The track forecast will continue to shift around a little but confidence is high that the core of the storm will avoid the FL Panhandle. Some impacts will continue well away from the point of landfall so be prepared if you're nearby. The current forecast is for Ida to be a category three storm at landfall Sunday afternoon, although the NHC cautioned that several models are calling for an even stronger storm. The day three severe weather outlook keeps the main tornado risk confined to the area near the point of landfall but we'll have to watch and see if this expands over the next two days.

This will be my last update on Ida unless there is a significant track change (very unlikely) or if the tornado risk creeps over to the east. This will unfortunately be a major event for the folks in Louisiana and Mississippi. I'll send out another update early next week on any other areas we may need to watch.

Have a great weekend.

Chris

Tropical Depression 9 Forms - August 26, 2021

August 26, 2021

Just a quick update letting you know that Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Caribbean, the forecast cone is below. Rapid intensification is expected once the storm is in the Gulf and a major hurricane at landfall is possible. The longer term track is still a bit uncertain and track shifts are expected.

More updates to follow as the forecast evolves.

Chris

Quick Thursday Update - Tropical Cyclone Expected in the Gulf This Weekend

August 26, 2021

I'm mostly going to talk about the short-term today. The NHC has been watching an area in the Caribbean for several days now. Designated Invest 99L, it has a 90% chance of development over the next 2 days as it moves northwest and we'll probably see it become a depression soon. Until a storm actually forms and models have a fix on where it is located the forecast is a bit uncertain. For now the model consensus takes the storm into Louisiana with quite a bit of spread to the east and west (see below). Everywhere from the central Texas coast to Alabama is on the table, it depends on how far to the north the center forms from its parent tropical wave and how the steering currents evolve over the next few days. Right now those of us in the Florida Panhandle need to watch but I'm not concerned at the moment as it looks like one of the main steering features should keep it to our west if (...if...) the forecast holds. We'll have more confidence in the forecast later tomorrow or Saturday.

This will likely be a fairly strong storm at landfall, the NHC is already urging people to be prepared, here is their statement this morning: 

The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern U.S. Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday and Monday.  However, uncertainty in the system's exact track and intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

Note that they mention our area. I think they're doing this to cover all bases at this point but we need to keep watching. Note also that landfall will be early next week with the potential for impacts beginning late this weekend. 

Looking a little longer-term, there are still some signals that we may see another storm try to develop in the same area early to mid next week. Nothing for sure at this point but something to watch once we get past this storm, which will be named Ida if something else out in the Atlantic doesn't form first.

That's all for today, I'll have another update this weekend.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - Sunday August 22nd

August 22, 2021

Let's take a look at what the tropics may have in store the next few weeks. There are no concerns in the short term as you can see on the NHC 5-Day Outlook. However, looking at the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook we may start to see activity pick up in the western Caribbean around mid-week lasting through at least the beginning of September. Eastern Atlantic development is also possible towards the end of the month.

Getting into the details a little, several tropical waves will move through the Caribbean over the next 10 days and conditions will be at least moderately favorable for development. Operational and ensemble models are showing a storm developing around the end of this week or weekend and making landfall anywhere from northern Mexico through Louisiana Monday or Tuesday the following week (August 30-31). At the same time this landfall is occurring (assuming there is a storm...) there is a signal in the GFS and GEFS for another storm developing in the same area but with a wider track spread that could put more of the central and eastern Gulf at risk over the Labor Day weekend. It should be noted that the ECMWF doesn't develop this second system at all and only a few of the 51 Euro ensemble members show development. During this same end of the month timeframe we'll need to watch the eastern Atlantic for development from a tropical wave coming off the African coast but it'll be a while before we're concerned about that if at all.

That's it for today. We're nearing the peak of the season so this increase in activity is expected. I'll send out another update between the middle or end of the week depending on what happens in the Caribbean.

Have a great week!

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - Tuesday August 17th

August 17, 2021

Now that Fred has moved on, let's take a look at the rest of the tropics. There are two more storms out there, Grace and Henri (pronounced in the French manner). Neither are a threat to us unless you're traveling somewhere. Grace could certainly be a problem for Mexico.

In the longer term there are two more tropical waves that will come off of Africa Friday and next Monday we'll need to watch, the existing waves don't look too threatening at the moment. Also, the GEFS is showing signals of something developing out of the deep Caribbean near Central America next week. I don't know if it is developing the southern end of tropical waves as they enter that area, if it's some other disturbance, or just a false signal. Sometimes the GFS/GEFS will see favorable conditions from the Eastern Pacific through the Caribbean and try to develop storms on our side instead of the Pacific when the East Pac is really the current hot spot. We'll have to watch if that trend continues and look for other models to pick up on it.

Going back to Fred, it was an interesting storm. It made a run at hurricane strength early yesterday but it never quite got there. Info on the ground from the landfall location both first hand and online reported fairly light winds (for a tropical storm) whereas locations to the east and west had winds nearing hurricane strength. The Panama City area took a pretty good punch which is interesting in that they were on the west side which is typically the weaker side. Land interaction can cause a storm to flare up right at landfall and it looks like that is what happened with Fred. There were only a few reports of tornadoes in Georgia so it is good that threat didn't materialize.

I have nothing else to report today but I'll probably send out another update around the weekend.

Have a great rest of the week!

Chris

Fred's Track Shifts East - 10 a.m. Advisory

August 16, 2021

With the 10 a.m. CDT advisory the track has shifted east again, now showing a landfall between Tyndall AFB and Mexico Beach. I thought we'd see some hurricane watches go up but not so. Forecast is now for 65 mph around landfall.

The tornado/waterspout threat continues but is currently isolated to the area near Apalachicola Bay.

Chris

Monday Morning Update on Fred

August 16, 2021

There were a few slight changes to the forecast for Fred overnight. The track has shifted to the east with the center of the forecast cone bringing Fred ashore on Panama CIty Beach just east of Hwy 79 as a 60 mph tropical storm. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the tornado risk from 2% to 5% and is expecting the first round of (potentially) tornado producing storms to come ashore near Apalachicola Bay between 9-11 a.m. EDT. A tornado watch was just issued for this area. Other impacts remain about the same.

The GFS and operational HWRF have backed off a bit on their intensification forecast from last night. Both models strengthen the storm just shy of hurricane strength prior to landfall. The intensity only version of the HWRF has the storm as a low end cat 1. There is an experimental model showing a similar solution as well but again the majority of models are not showing this outcome. The NHC did mention in their discussion that conditions will become slightly more favorable for strengthening and a hurricane hunter currently in the storm is finding lower pressures. I think these models are picking up on this possibility but they may be overdoing it, we'll see.

Unless there are significant changes to the track, intensity, or tornado risk this will be my last major update. I'm going to keep an eye out for tornado producing bands and send out updates on those when needed.

Grace and TD 8 near Bermuda don't look to be threats to us at this time but we'll talk more about those later.

Have a good day.

Chris

Re: Sunday Night Update on Fred

I should have waited 5 minutes...00Z HWRF hurricane model, one of the most reliable at times, also showing a minimal cat 1 right over my house but we're prepared.

On Sun, Aug 15, 2021 at 11:49 PM Chris Nabholz <cjnabholz@gmail.com> wrote:

August 15, 2021

Not much changed with the forecast for Fred with the 10 p.m. CDT advisory. The center of the track still brings the storm in just west of Walton/Bay county line as a 60 mph storm Monday evening. The main impacts will be at and to the east of the landfall location. There will definitely be some wind and storm surge along the coast but elsewhere rain and possibly tornadoes will be the main hazards. I completely forgot to mention the tornado threat during my last update but most of you know they are typically a hazard with landfalling storms, especially on the east side. Right now the risk is only 2% but we might see that go up tomorrow morning.

The 00Z operational models are starting to come in and one concerning item is that the GFS is showing Fred to be a category 1 hurricane at landfall. It is one run of one model so taking everything as a whole it is an outlier. Major global models like the GFS don't always do well on storm intensity although they do pretty good on the track. That being said, it is a generally reliable model so we'll need to see if this trend continues and watch if other models jump on board. There is virtually no other support for this at this time but it's not impossible so something to keep an eye on.

That's it for tonight.

Chris

Sunday Night Update on Fred

August 15, 2021

Not much changed with the forecast for Fred with the 10 p.m. CDT advisory. The center of the track still brings the storm in just west of Walton/Bay county line as a 60 mph storm Monday evening. The main impacts will be at and to the east of the landfall location. There will definitely be some wind and storm surge along the coast but elsewhere rain and possibly tornadoes will be the main hazards. I completely forgot to mention the tornado threat during my last update but most of you know they are typically a hazard with landfalling storms, especially on the east side. Right now the risk is only 2% but we might see that go up tomorrow morning.

The 00Z operational models are starting to come in and one concerning item is that the GFS is showing Fred to be a category 1 hurricane at landfall. It is one run of one model so taking everything as a whole it is an outlier. Major global models like the GFS don't always do well on storm intensity although they do pretty good on the track. That being said, it is a generally reliable model so we'll need to see if this trend continues and watch if other models jump on board. There is virtually no other support for this at this time but it's not impossible so something to keep an eye on.

That's it for tonight.

Chris

Sunday Morning Update on Fred and Grace

August 15, 2021

We're still watching the same two storms this morning. Starting with Fred, until just a few minutes ago it actually has not been a tropical cyclone at all for the better part of the last two days. While still shown as the "Remnants of Fred" on the map below, Fred has again become a tropical storm as of 8:40 a.m. EDT. The NHC issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of the AL and FL Panhandles earlier this morning and tropical storm warnings are expected with the 11 a.m. EDT advisory. After seeing the track shift west for 24 hours starting Friday evening we're now seeing the track shift east again. We'll see where the NHC puts the center for the next advisory. At 5 a.m. they noted it may be forming a little more to the north which would shift the track to the east again. Regarding intensity the expectation is for Fred to regain tropical storm strength, perhaps with winds as strong as 60 mph. Heavy rainfall will be the main impact but there will be minor storm surge concerns as well.

Looking briefly at Grace, which is struggling to maintain it's tropical cyclone status this morning, we're going to see it evolve in a similar fashion as Fred through Thursday. A lot of the current model guidance takes the storm across the Gulf to our west but we'll have to wait a few days to see if that holds.

That's it for now, I'll send out another update later today or tomorrow morning.

Chris

Late Friday Update on Fred and TD Seven

August 13, 2021

The 11 p.m. EDT update is out and with this forecast the NHC shifted the track a little more to the west with the center of the track showing landfall near Navarre, FL as a 60 mph tropical storm Monday night. The NHC noted that their forecast is a bit to the east of many models and that farther shifts west may be needed.

Due to wind shear most of the convection is well to the southeast of Fred over the northern Caribbean while the center of Fred, if there even is one, is somewhere over central Cuba. Due to this Fred isn't going to strengthen much until it pulls away from Cuba sometime tomorrow. Even though Fred will have a full day and a half over the Gulf persistent wind shear is expected to limit intensification. I was a little concerned earlier this evening when I saw the track and model trends. Some of the most recent model runs have settled back down and given the current poor state of the storm and continued presence of wind shear I am feeling better. We'll see what tomorrow brings but hopefully this trend continues.

I won't spend much time on it yet but Invest 95L became Tropical Depression Seven earlier today and will likely become Tropical Storm Grace by tomorrow. I didn't think we'd see it get named quite this soon but thankfully not much additional strengthening is expected in the short term. No concerns yet at all but we'll need to start paying more attention once Fred is out of the picture.

That's it for tonight. I'll probably send out another update by early evening tomorrow.

Have a great Saturday.

Chris